We Think WH Group (HKG:288) Can Stay On Top Of Its Debt
We Think WH Group (HKG:288) Can Stay On Top Of Its Debt
Legendary fund manager Li Lu (who Charlie Munger backed) once said, 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' It's only natural to consider a company's balance sheet when you examine how risky it is, since debt is often involved when a business collapses. We note that WH Group Limited (HKG:288) does have debt on its balance sheet. But the more important question is: how much risk is that debt creating?
传奇基金经理李录(得到查理·芒格支持)曾说:“最大的投资风险不在于价格的波动,而在于你是否会遭受永久性的资本损失。” 在评估风险时,考虑公司的资产负债表是很自然的,因为企业破产时通常涉及债务。我们注意到,万洲国际(HKG:288)的资产负债表上确实有债务。但更重要的问题是:这些债务带来了多少风险?
What Risk Does Debt Bring?
债务带来了什么风险?
Debt is a tool to help businesses grow, but if a business is incapable of paying off its lenders, then it exists at their mercy. Ultimately, if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt, shareholders could walk away with nothing. However, a more frequent (but still costly) occurrence is where a company must issue shares at bargain-basement prices, permanently diluting shareholders, just to shore up its balance sheet. Of course, plenty of companies use debt to fund growth, without any negative consequences. The first thing to do when considering how much debt a business uses is to look at its cash and debt together.
债务是帮助企业增长的工具,但如果企业无法偿还债务,那么它存在于债权人的控制之下。 最终,如果公司无法履行偿还债务的法律义务,股东可能一无所有。然而,更经常发生的(但仍然代价高昂)情况是,公司必须以低于市价的价格发行股票,永久性地稀释股东的股权,以维持其资产负债表。当然,很多公司使用债务来支持增长,而没有任何负面影响。在考虑企业使用了多少债务时,首先要做的是查看其现金和债务的总体情况。
How Much Debt Does WH Group Carry?
万洲国际携带多少债务?
As you can see below, WH Group had US$3.37b of debt, at June 2024, which is about the same as the year before. You can click the chart for greater detail. However, because it has a cash reserve of US$1.40b, its net debt is less, at about US$1.98b.
正如您下方所见,截至2024年6月,万洲国际负债33.7亿美元,与前一年大致相同。您可以单击图表以获取更详细信息。然而,由于其现金储备为14亿美元,其净债务较少,约为19.8亿美元。
How Strong Is WH Group's Balance Sheet?
万洲国际的资产负债表有多坚强?
Zooming in on the latest balance sheet data, we can see that WH Group had liabilities of US$4.04b due within 12 months and liabilities of US$4.11b due beyond that. On the other hand, it had cash of US$1.40b and US$921.0m worth of receivables due within a year. So its liabilities outweigh the sum of its cash and (near-term) receivables by US$5.83b.
仔细观察最新的资产负债表数据,我们可以看到万洲国际有40.4亿美元的短期负债和41.1亿美元的长期负债。另一方面,它有14亿美元现金和92100万美元应收账款。因此,它的负债超过了现金和(短期)应收账款的总和58.3亿美元。
While this might seem like a lot, it is not so bad since WH Group has a huge market capitalization of US$10.3b, and so it could probably strengthen its balance sheet by raising capital if it needed to. But we definitely want to keep our eyes open to indications that its debt is bringing too much risk.
尽管这可能听起来很多,但这并不太糟糕,因为万洲国际的市值达到了103亿美元,所以如果需要的话,它可能会通过融资来增强资产负债表。但我们肯定要警惕其债务带来过高的风险。
In order to size up a company's debt relative to its earnings, we calculate its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) divided by its interest expense (its interest cover). The advantage of this approach is that we take into account both the absolute quantum of debt (with net debt to EBITDA) and the actual interest expenses associated with that debt (with its interest cover ratio).
为了衡量公司相对于其收益的债务情况,我们计算其净负债除以利息、税项、折旧和摊销前收益(EBITDA)和其利息支出除以利息前收益(EBIT)的比例(其利息覆盖率)。这种方法的优点是,我们既考虑了债务的绝对量(净负债与 EBITDA),又考虑到了与该债务相关的实际利息支出(其利息覆盖率)。
With net debt sitting at just 1.1 times EBITDA, WH Group is arguably pretty conservatively geared. And this view is supported by the solid interest coverage, with EBIT coming in at 10.0 times the interest expense over the last year. In addition to that, we're happy to report that WH Group has boosted its EBIT by 82%, thus reducing the spectre of future debt repayments. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine WH Group's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.
净债务只有EBITDA的1.1倍,可以说万洲国际的资本结构相当保守。并且坚实的利息覆盖率也支持这种观点,过去一年EBIT是利息费用的10倍。此外,我们很高兴地报告,万洲国际的EBIT增长了82%,从而减少了未来债务偿还的风险。分析债务水平时,资产负债表是明显的起点。但最重要的是,未来的盈利将决定万洲国际保持健康资产负债表的能力。因此,如果你想知道专业人士的看法,你可能会觉得这份关于分析师盈利预测的免费报告很有趣。
But our final consideration is also important, because a company cannot pay debt with paper profits; it needs cold hard cash. So we clearly need to look at whether that EBIT is leading to corresponding free cash flow. Over the last three years, WH Group recorded free cash flow worth a fulsome 84% of its EBIT, which is stronger than we'd usually expect. That puts it in a very strong position to pay down debt.
但我们最后要考虑的也很重要,因为一家公司无法用纸面利润偿还债务;它需要真金白银的现金。所以我们明显需要看一下EBIT是否有相应的自由现金流。在过去的三年中,万洲国际录得的自由现金流相当于其EBIT的84%,这比我们通常预期的要强。这使得它在偿还债务方面处于非常强势的位置。
Our View
我们的观点
The good news is that WH Group's demonstrated ability to convert EBIT to free cash flow delights us like a fluffy puppy does a toddler. But truth be told we feel its level of total liabilities does undermine this impression a bit. Looking at the bigger picture, we think WH Group's use of debt seems quite reasonable and we're not concerned about it. After all, sensible leverage can boost returns on equity. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. For example, we've discovered 2 warning signs for WH Group that you should be aware of before investing here.
好消息是,WH Group将EBIT转化为自由现金流的能力令人如此兴奋,就像小孩子喜欢绒毛小狗一样。但实话实说,我们认为其总负债水平稍微削弱了这种印象。从更大的角度来看,我们认为WH Group债务的利用似乎相当合理,我们对此并不担心。毕竟,明智的杠杆可以提高股东回报率。在分析债务水平时,资产负债表显然是一个很好的起点。但最终,每家公司都可能存在超出资产负债表范围的风险。例如,我们在对万洲国际的研究中发现了2个警示信号,您在投资之前应该注意。
At the end of the day, it's often better to focus on companies that are free from net debt. You can access our special list of such companies (all with a track record of profit growth). It's free.
归根结底,专注于没有净债务的公司往往更好。您可以访问我们的特别列表,其中包括所有表现出盈利增长轨迹的公司。这是免费的。
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