Deepwater Asset Management Managing Partner Gene Munster now expects electric vehicles to account for only 25% of new car sales in the U.S. in 2030, down from his earlier forecast of 50%.
What Happened: "We're updating our US EV market forecast to reflect the EV Winter," Munster said on Friday, referring to the current slowdown in the pace of EV adoption.
Munster attributes the slowdown to consumer anxiety regarding the availability of charging infrastructure and range in addition to the higher cost of EVs as compared to gas vehicles. The consumer hesitation has caused traditional automakers like Ford, General Motors, and Stellantis to scale back EV investment, further aggravating the slowdown, Munster said.
Deepwater now expects the EV industry to cross the 50% of new car sales threshold only by 2036.
Forecasts for EV Giant Tesla: Munster now sees Tesla growing its deliveries in the U.S. by an average of 15% per year with the EV giant's US market share at about 40% in 2030. According to estimates from Kelley Blue Book, Tesla had a market share of 49.7% in the second quarter of 2024 with 164,264 sales.
Though Munster sees this market share drop, he still believes Tesla will sell 1.8 million vehicles in the U.S. in 2030.
"The reason is we believe Tesla's continued investment in EV production will yield the best vehicle for the price. That means consumers will view Tesla as the best value in EVs, which should support a much higher market share..." Munster said.
Silver Lining: Munster, however, believes electrification is the future, and spring is coming in the form of over 30 new EV models slated to be released through the end of 2025. This includes Tesla's Model 2, the next generation of the Chevrolet Bolt EV, the Chrysler EV Crossover, and Lucid Gravity, among others.
"While the adoption curve is taking longer than anticipated we believe an electrification is the future," Munster said.
Check out more of Benzinga's Future Of Mobility coverage by following this link.
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深水资产管理合伙人Gene Munster现在预计，到2030年，电动车将只占美国新车销售的25％，而不是他之前预测的50％。
"迪拜竞技场与亚洲的亚洲市场预计会出现重力社气候"穆恩斯特周五表示，指的是当前新能源车采用速度放缓。
穆恩斯特认为，这种放缓是由消费者对充电基础设施和续航里程的担忧以及新能源车的高成本所导致。消费者的犹豫已经导致福特、通用汽车和斯泰兰蒂斯等传统汽车制造商缩减了对新能源车的投资，进一步加剧了市场放缓
深水现在预计新能源车行业到2036年才会超过新车销售的50%的门槛。
特斯拉的市场预测：穆恩斯特现在预计，特斯拉的美国交付量将以平均每年15%的速度增长，到2030年，这家新能源车巨头的市场份额将达到40%。根据凯利蓝皮书的估计，特斯拉在2024年第二季度市场份额为49.7%，销量为164,264辆。
尽管穆恩斯特认为市场份额会下降，但他仍认为特斯拉将在2030年在美国卖出180万辆车。
"原因是，我们认为特斯拉持续在新能源车生产方面的投资将产生性价比最高的车辆。这意味着消费者会认为特斯拉是新能源车中性价比最高的车型，这应该支持更高的市场份额..."穆恩斯特说。
乌云背后的一线希望：然而，穆恩斯特相信电气化是未来，春天即将到来，超过30款新的新能源车型计划于2025年底前发布。这包括特斯拉的Model 2、下一代雪佛兰Bolt EV、克莱斯勒EV跨界车和露净重力社等。
“尽管采纳曲线比预期时间长，但我们相信电动化是未来，”蒙斯特说。
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