Analyst Estimates: Here's What Brokers Think Of NCino, Inc. (NASDAQ:NCNO) After Its Second-Quarter Report
Analyst Estimates: Here's What Brokers Think Of NCino, Inc. (NASDAQ:NCNO) After Its Second-Quarter Report
There's been a notable change in appetite for nCino, Inc. (NASDAQ:NCNO) shares in the week since its quarterly report, with the stock down 14% to US$29.96. Revenues were in line with expectations, at US$132m, while statutory losses ballooned to US$0.10 per share. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.
自季报发布以来,nCino, Inc. (NASDAQ:NCNO) 股票的市场热情有了明显变化,股价下跌了14%,至29.96美元。营业收入与预期一致,为1.32亿美元,而法定亏损达到每股0.10美元。根据这一结果,分析师们已经更新了他们的盈利模型,我们想知道他们是否认为公司的前景发生了明显变化,或者一切如常。因此,我们收集了最新的季报后预测,以了解下一年的预期。
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Following the latest results, nCino's 15 analysts are now forecasting revenues of US$541.6m in 2025. This would be a credible 7.0% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Losses are supposed to decline, shrinking 13% from last year to US$0.22. Before this latest report, the consensus had been expecting revenues of US$541.7m and US$0.18 per share in losses. While this year's revenue estimates held steady, there was also a notable increase in loss per share expectations, suggesting the consensus has a bit of a mixed view on the stock.
根据最新的结果,nCino的15位分析师预测2025年的营业收入为5.416亿美元。与过去12个月相比,这将是一个可靠的7.0%增长。预计亏损将会减少,较去年减少13%,至0.22美元。在最新的报告之前,市场预期的营收为5.417亿美元,每股亏损为0.18美元。今年的营业收入预期保持稳定,但每股亏损预期有显著增加,这表明市场对该股持有着不同的看法。
The consensus price target held steady at US$37.85, seemingly implying that the higher forecast losses are not expected to have a long term impact on the company's valuation. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. There are some variant perceptions on nCino, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$44.00 and the most bearish at US$30.00 per share. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.
共识价值目标保持在37.85美元,似乎意味着预测的更高亏损预计不会对公司的估值产生长期影响。然而,仅仅关注一个目标价可能是不明智的,因为共识目标实际上是分析师目标价的平均值。因此,一些投资者喜欢看看预测范围,以了解公司估值上是否存在不同的观点。关于nCino,有一些不同的看法,最看好的分析师将其估值定为44.00美元,而最看淡的为每股30.00美元。正如您所见,分析师对这只股票的未来意见并不一致,但预测范围仍然相对狭窄,这可能意味着结果并不完全不可预测。
One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that nCino's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 14% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 25% over the past three years. Compare this to the 402 other companies in this industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenue at 12% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while nCino's revenue growth is expected to slow, it's expected to grow roughly in line with the industry.
获取有关这些预测的更多背景信息的一种方法是查看它们与过去的业绩以及同行业其他公司的表现相比较。很明显,人们对ncino的营收增长有着很大的期望,预计到2025年底,年均增长率将显示为14%。与过去三年的历史增长率25%相比。与该行业内另外402家有分析师覆盖的公司相比,这些公司的预计收入年均增长率为12%。因此,很明显,虽然预计ncino的营收增长将放缓,但预计其增长将与行业基本保持一致。
The Bottom Line
最重要的事情是分析师增加了它对下一年每股亏损的估计。令人欣慰的是,营收预测未发生重大变化,业务仍有望比整个行业增长更快。共识价格目标稳定在28.50美元,最新估计不足以对价格目标产生影响。
The most important thing to take away is that the analysts increased their loss per share estimates for next year. They also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, with the company predicted to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.
最重要的是分析师们提高了明年每股亏损预测。他们还确认了他们的营收预测,预计该公司的增长速度和整个行业大致相同。共识价格目标没有真正变化,这意味着业务的内在价值没有在最新的估计中发生重大变化。
With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on nCino. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have forecasts for nCino going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.
在此背景下,我们不应该过快对ncino做出结论。长期盈利能力比明年的利润更重要。我们对ncino进行了2027年的预测,您可以在我们的平台上免费查看。
However, before you get too enthused, we've discovered 2 warning signs for nCino that you should be aware of.
但是,在您热情过度之前,我们发现了有关ncino的2个警示信号,您应该注意。
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