Shenzhen Kangtai Biological Products Co., Ltd. Just Missed Earnings - But Analysts Have Updated Their Models
Shenzhen Kangtai Biological Products Co., Ltd. Just Missed Earnings - But Analysts Have Updated Their Models
As you might know, Shenzhen Kangtai Biological Products Co., Ltd. (SZSE:300601) last week released its latest quarterly, and things did not turn out so great for shareholders. The analysts look to have been far too optimistic in the lead-up to these results, with revenues of (CN¥750m) coming in 20% below what they had expected. Statutory earnings per share of CN¥0.10 fell 40% short. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Shenzhen Kangtai Biological Products after the latest results.
正如您所知,深圳康泰生物制品股份有限公司(SZSE:300601)上周发布了最新季度报告,股东们并不乐观。分析师们在这些结果公布之前过于乐观,营业收入约为7.5亿人民币,比预期低20%。每股收益约为0.1人民币,比预期低40%。对投资者来说,这是一个重要的时刻,他们可以通过报告追踪公司的业绩,了解专家对明年的预测,并查看业务预期是否有任何变化。读者会很高兴得知,我们已汇总了最新的预测数据,以了解分析师对深圳康泰生物制品在最新业绩公布后是否改变了看法。
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Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Shenzhen Kangtai Biological Products' nine analysts is for revenues of CN¥4.11b in 2024. This would reflect a major 39% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to leap 115% to CN¥0.99. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of CN¥4.33b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥1.01 in 2024. The consensus seems maybe a little more pessimistic, trimming their revenue forecasts after the latest results even though there was no change to its EPS estimates.
综合考虑最新的业绩结果,深圳康泰生物制品的九位分析师一致预计2024年营业收入为约411亿人民币,较过去12个月的收入增长39%。每股收益预计将大幅增长115%,达到约0.99人民币。然而,在最新业绩公布之前,分析师们预计2024年的营业收入为约433亿人民币,每股收益(EPS)为约1.01人民币。总体来看,分析师们的预测似乎更加悲观,尽管每股收益预期没有发生变化,却对营业收入进行了调整。
It will come as no surprise then, that the consensus price target fell 7.2% to CN¥23.79following these changes. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Shenzhen Kangtai Biological Products at CN¥33.69 per share, while the most bearish prices it at CN¥16.00. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.
毫不意外,根据这些变动,市场一致看跌价格目标下调了7.2%,至23.79人民币。查看分析师预测的范围也可能很有启发性,以评估离群意见与平均值之间的差异。目前,最看好的分析师预计深圳康泰生物制品每股33.69人民币,而最看淡的预计每股16.00人民币。这是一些相当广泛的预测范围,表明分析师们对该企业的可能走势有着较大的不同预期。
Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. The analysts are definitely expecting Shenzhen Kangtai Biological Products' growth to accelerate, with the forecast 94% annualised growth to the end of 2024 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 13% per annum over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 25% per year. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that Shenzhen Kangtai Biological Products is expected to grow much faster than its industry.
当然,观察这些预测的另一种方式是将其放在行业的背景下来看。分析师们确实期望深圳康泰生物的增长加速,预计到2024年的年化增长率为94%,排在过去五年每年13%的历史增长率之上。相比之下,我们的数据显示,在类似行业中其他(有分析师覆盖的)公司预计年收入增长率为25%。考虑到收入增长的加速预测,很明显深圳康泰生物的增长速度预计比其所在行业要快得多。
The Bottom Line
最重要的事情是分析师增加了它对下一年每股亏损的估计。令人欣慰的是,营收预测未发生重大变化,业务仍有望比整个行业增长更快。共识价格目标稳定在28.50美元,最新估计不足以对价格目标产生影响。
The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Regrettably, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, but the latest forecasts still imply the business will grow faster than the wider industry. Still, earnings per share are more important to value creation for shareholders. Furthermore, the analysts also cut their price targets, suggesting that the latest news has led to greater pessimism about the intrinsic value of the business.
最明显的结论是,最近该企业的前景没有发生重大变化,分析师们保持了他们的盈利预测不变,与以前的估计相一致。可惜的是,他们也下调了营业收入的预估值,但最新的预测仍然意味着该企业将比整个行业增长更快。尽管如此,每股收益对股东的价值创造更加重要。此外,分析师们还调低了他们的股价目标,表明最新的消息导致了对企业内在价值更加悲观的看法。
With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Shenzhen Kangtai Biological Products. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Shenzhen Kangtai Biological Products going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..
考虑到这一点,我们不应该过快得出关于深圳康泰生物的结论。长期盈利能力比明年的利润更为重要。在Simply Wall St,我们对深圳康泰生物的分析师预测提供了包括2026年在内的全面范围,您可以在我们的平台上免费查看。
That said, it's still necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 2 warning signs with Shenzhen Kangtai Biological Products , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.
话虽如此,仍有必要考虑投资风险的存在。我们已经发现了深圳康泰生物的2个警示信号,了解它们应该成为您投资过程的一部分。
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