Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products Co., Ltd. Earnings Missed Analyst Estimates: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting Now
Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products Co., Ltd. Earnings Missed Analyst Estimates: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting Now
Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products Co., Ltd. (SZSE:300122) missed earnings with its latest second-quarter results, disappointing overly-optimistic forecasters. Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products delivered a grave earnings miss, with both revenues (CN¥6.9b) and statutory earnings per share (CN¥0.32) falling badly short of analyst expectations. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.
智飞生物(SZSE:300122)在最新的第二季度业绩中未达到预期,令过于乐观的预测师们失望。智飞生物的营业收入(约69亿元人民币)和每股收益(约0.32元人民币)都大大低于分析师的预期。分析师通常会根据每个季度的财报更新他们的预测,我们可以从他们的估计中判断他们对这家公司的看法是否有所改变,或者是否有任何新的问题需要注意。我们搜集了最新的财务预测,以查看分析师是否根据这些财报调整了他们的盈利模型。
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Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products' 13 analysts is for revenues of CN¥56.6b in 2024. This would reflect a sizeable 21% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to grow 14% to CN¥2.88. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of CN¥57.5b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥4.09 in 2024. So there's definitely been a decline in sentiment after the latest results, noting the pretty serious reduction to new EPS forecasts.
综合考虑最新的财报,智飞生物的13位分析师的共识是,2024年的营业收入预计为566亿元人民币。这将反映出过去12个月内该公司营业收入的显著增长21%。预计每股收益将增长14%,达到2.88元人民币。然而,在最新的财报发布之前,分析师预计2024年的营业收入为575亿元人民币,每股收益(EPS)为4.09元人民币。因此,在最新财报发布后,情绪显然有所下降,尤其是对新的每股收益预测的大幅削减。
It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at CN¥48.29, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. There are some variant perceptions on Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at CN¥95.88 and the most bearish at CN¥28.00 per share. As you can see the range of estimates is wide, with the lowest valuation coming in at less than half the most bullish estimate, suggesting there are some strongly diverging views on how analysts think this business will perform. As a result it might not be a great idea to make decisions based on the consensus price target, which is after all just an average of this wide range of estimates.
令人惊讶的是,共识目标价基本上没有变化,为48.29元人民币,分析师们明确表示预计盈利下降不会对估值产生太大影响。然而,还有一种看待目标价的方法,那就是查看分析师提出的目标价范围,因为广泛的估值范围可能意味着对企业的可能结果存在不同的看法。对于智飞生物,存在着一些不同的看法,其中最看好的分析师将其估值为95.88元人民币,最看淡的估值为28.00元人民币每股。正如您所见,估值范围很大,最低估值不到最看好估值的一半,这表明分析师对这家企业的表现存在强烈分歧。因此,基于共识目标价做决策可能不是一个好主意,毕竟这只是这一估值范围的平均值。
Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. The analysts are definitely expecting Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products' growth to accelerate, with the forecast 47% annualised growth to the end of 2024 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 34% per annum over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 25% per year. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products is expected to grow much faster than its industry.
我们可以从更大的视角来看待这些估计,比如与过去的业绩相比,预测与行业其他公司相比较的看法是否更加看好。分析师们明显预计智飞生物的增长将加速,预测到2024年年化增长率为47%,与过去五年平均每年34%的历史增长相比较,排名相对靠前。相比之下,我们的数据显示,行业其他具有分析师覆盖的公司预计每年的收入增长率为25%。考虑到收入预测的加速增长,很明显,智飞生物预计的增长速度将远超行业。
The Bottom Line
最重要的事情是分析师增加了它对下一年每股亏损的估计。令人欣慰的是,营收预测未发生重大变化,业务仍有望比整个行业增长更快。共识价格目标稳定在28.50美元,最新估计不足以对价格目标产生影响。
The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.
最大的担忧是分析师们下调了每股收益的预测,这表明智飞生物可能会面临业务困境。 幸运的是,他们也重新确认了收入数据,表明其与预期保持一致。此外,我们的数据显示,收入预计将比整个行业增长更快。 对于预估目标价值,没有实质性的变化,这表明企业的内在价值在最新的预估中没有发生任何重大变化。
With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have forecasts for Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.
考虑到这一点,我们不应该过快对智飞生物下结论。长期盈利能力比明年的利润更为重要。 我们对智飞生物的预测延续到2026年,您可以在我们的平台上免费查看。
It is also worth noting that we have found 1 warning sign for Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products that you need to take into consideration.
值得注意的是,我们发现了1个关于智飞生物的警示信号,您需要考虑其中的内容。
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