National Silicon Industry Group Co.,Ltd. Earnings Missed Analyst Estimates: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting Now
National Silicon Industry Group Co.,Ltd. Earnings Missed Analyst Estimates: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting Now
Shareholders might have noticed that National Silicon Industry Group Co.,Ltd. (SHSE:688126) filed its second-quarter result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 2.2% to CN¥14.69 in the past week. It was a pretty negative result overall, with revenues of CN¥845m missing analyst predictions by 3.0%. Worse, the business reported a statutory loss of CN¥0.069 per share, a substantial decline on analyst expectations of a profit. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.
股东可能已经注意到沪硅产业(SHSE:688126)上周公布了其第二季度的业绩。市场对此反应不佳,过去一周股价下跌了2.2%,至14.69元人民币。总体来说,这是一个非常负面的结果,营业收入为84500万人民币,较分析师的预期低了3.0%。更糟糕的是,该公司报告了每股亏损0.069元人民币,大幅低于分析师对盈利的预期。盈利是投资者重要关注的时间点,他们可以追踪公司的表现,关注分析师对明年的预测,并观察市场对该公司的情绪是否发生了变化。鉴于此,我们收集了最新的法定预测,看看分析师对明年的预期。
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Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from National Silicon Industry GroupLtd's six analysts is for revenues of CN¥3.48b in 2024. This reflects a notable 9.4% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share losses are expected to creep up to CN¥0.13, on a statutory basis. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of CN¥3.80b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥0.079 in 2024. The analysts have made an abrupt about-face on National Silicon Industry GroupLtd, administering a minor downgrade to to revenue forecasts and slashing the earnings outlook from a profit to loss.
考虑到最新的结果,沪硅产业的六位分析师预测,2024年营收为34.8亿元人民币。相比过去12个月,这是营收显著提升了9.4%。每股亏损预计将从法定角度上升至0.13元人民币。在此报告发布之前,分析师对2024年的营收预测为38亿元人民币,每股收益(EPS)为0.079元人民币。分析师对沪硅产业的评估发生了明显的变化,将营收预测进行了轻微下调,并将盈利前景从盈利转为亏损。
There was no major change to the consensus price target of CN¥14.18, signalling that the business is performing roughly in line with expectations, despite lower earnings per share forecasts. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. The most optimistic National Silicon Industry GroupLtd analyst has a price target of CN¥22.70 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at CN¥3.70. As you can see the range of estimates is wide, with the lowest valuation coming in at less than half the most bullish estimate, suggesting there are some strongly diverging views on how analysts think this business will perform. As a result it might not be a great idea to make decisions based on the consensus price target, which is after all just an average of this wide range of estimates.
CN¥14.18的共识价目标没有发生重大变化,表明该公司的表现大致符合预期,尽管每股盈利预测较低。然而,从这些数据中我们可以得出更多结论,因为一些投资者在评估分析师的目标价时也喜欢考虑估值的范围。最乐观的沪硅产业分析师的目标价为每股22.70元人民币,而最悲观的目标价为每股3.70元人民币。可以看到,估值范围很广,最低估值不到最乐观估值的一半,这表明分析师对该公司的观点存在明显分歧。因此,根据共识价目标做决策可能并不是一个好主意,毕竟共识价目标仅是这一范围广泛估值的平均值。
Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. It's clear from the latest estimates that National Silicon Industry GroupLtd's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 20% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2024 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 12% p.a. over the past three years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 22% annually. National Silicon Industry GroupLtd is expected to grow at about the same rate as its industry, so it's not clear that we can draw any conclusions from its growth relative to competitors.
当然,观察这些预测的另一种方式是将它们与行业本身进行对比。根据最新预估,从2024年年底开始,沪硅产业集团有限公司的增长速度有望明显加快,预计每年收入增长20%,明显快于过去三年平均每年12%的历史增长率。与同行业其他公司相比,预计其收入将每年增长22%。沪硅产业集团有限公司预计将以与行业大致相同的速度增长,所以我们不能从其相对竞争对手的增长中得出任何结论。
The Bottom Line
最重要的事情是分析师增加了它对下一年每股亏损的估计。令人欣慰的是,营收预测未发生重大变化,业务仍有望比整个行业增长更快。共识价格目标稳定在28.50美元,最新估计不足以对价格目标产生影响。
The most important thing to take away is that the analysts are expecting National Silicon Industry GroupLtd to become unprofitable next year. They also downgraded their revenue estimates, although as we saw earlier, forecast growth is only expected to be about the same as the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.
最重要的是,分析师们预计沪硅产业集团有限公司明年将陷入亏损。尽管如前所述,预估的增长只有与整个行业大致相同,但对其营收预估进行了下调。共识价格目标没有实质性变化,这表明公司的内在价值在最新的预估中没有发生重大变化。
With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple National Silicon Industry GroupLtd analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.
话虽如此,公司收益的长期轨迹比明年更为重要。我们对沪硅产业集团有限公司的分析师们的预测一直延伸到2026年,您可以在我们的平台上自由查看。
You can also see our analysis of National Silicon Industry GroupLtd's Board and CEO remuneration and experience, and whether company insiders have been buying stock.
您还可以在我们的平台上查看有关沪硅产业集团有限公司董事会和首席执行官的报酬和经验的分析,以及公司内部人是否一直在购买股票。
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