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Goneo Group Co., Ltd. Just Missed Earnings - But Analysts Have Updated Their Models

Goneo Group Co., Ltd. Just Missed Earnings - But Analysts Have Updated Their Models

Goneo集团有限公司仅错过了盈利 - 但分析师已更新其模型
Simply Wall St ·  09/01 09:11

Goneo Group Co., Ltd. (SHSE:603195) missed earnings with its latest interim results, disappointing overly-optimistic forecasters. It wasn't a great result overall - while revenue fell marginally short of analyst estimates at CN¥8.4b, statutory earnings missed forecasts by an incredible 21%, coming in at just CN¥0.69 per share. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

顾里集团股份有限公司(SHSE:603195)最新的中期业绩不及预期,令那些过于乐观的预测师们感到失望。整体而言,这并不是一个好的结果-尽管营业收入略微低于分析师预期的840亿元,但法定收益令人难以置信地低于预测值21%,仅为每股0.69元。分析师们通常会在每次财报后更新他们的预测,我们可以从他们的预测中判断他们对公司的看法是否发生了变化,或者是否有任何新的问题需要注意。基于此,我们汇集了最新的法定预测,以了解分析师对明年的预期。

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SHSE:603195 Earnings and Revenue Growth September 1st 2024
SHSE:603195 2024年9月1日的盈利和营业收入增长

Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Goneo Group from 13 analysts is for revenues of CN¥17.4b in 2024. If met, it would imply a satisfactory 5.4% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to accumulate 3.8% to CN¥3.44. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of CN¥17.9b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥3.49 in 2024. So it looks like the analysts have become a bit less optimistic after the latest results announcement, with revenues expected to fall even as the company is supposed to maintain EPS.

考虑到最新的结果,来自13位分析师的最新共识是,顾里集团2024年的营业收入预计为174亿元。如果实现,这将意味着过去12个月内其营业收入增长了满意的5.4%。每股收益预计将累积增长3.8%,达到3.44元。然而,在最新财报之前,分析师们曾预期2024年的营业收入为179亿元,每股收益(EPS)为3.49元。因此,看起来分析师们在最新财报公告后变得稍微不太乐观,预计营业收入将下降,尽管公司应该保持每股收益。

The average price target was steady at CN¥91.78even though revenue estimates declined; likely suggesting the analysts place a higher value on earnings. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. There are some variant perceptions on Goneo Group, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at CN¥105 and the most bearish at CN¥74.00 per share. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await Goneo Group shareholders.

尽管营业收入预测下降,但平均目标价保持在91.78亿元,可能表示分析师更重视收益。查看分析师预测范围也是有益的,以评估离群意见与平均值有多大差异。对于顾里集团,存在一些不同的观点,最看好的分析师将其估值为105亿元,最看淡的则为74.00元/股。分析师对这家公司的看法确实有所不同,但据我们观察,预测的范围并不足够宽泛,不足以暗示顾里集团股东可能会面临极端结果。

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Goneo Group's past performance and to peers in the same industry. The period to the end of 2024 brings more of the same, according to the analysts, with revenue forecast to display 11% growth on an annualised basis. That is in line with its 13% annual growth over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenues grow 16% per year. So although Goneo Group is expected to maintain its revenue growth rate, it's forecast to grow slower than the wider industry.

这些估算很有趣,但是当比较预测时,可以对金奥集团过去的业绩以及同行业的同行进行更广泛的概述可能会更有用。根据分析师的预测,到2024年底,收入预计将以年化11%的增长率显示。这与过去五年的每年增长13%相一致。相比之下,我们的数据显示,同行业(受到分析师关注)的其他公司预计每年收入增长16%。因此,尽管金奥集团预计将保持其收入增长率,但其增长速度预计将低于整个行业。

The Bottom Line

最重要的事情是分析师增加了它对下一年每股亏损的估计。令人欣慰的是,营收预测未发生重大变化,业务仍有望比整个行业增长更快。共识价格目标稳定在28.50美元,最新估计不足以对价格目标产生影响。

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. On the negative side, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. Even so, long term profitability is more important for the value creation process. The consensus price target held steady at CN¥91.78, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

最重要的是,没有主要的情绪变化,分析师重申该企业的业绩与以前的每股收益估计相符合。在消极方面,他们还下调了他们的收入估计,并预测他们的表现将不如整个行业。即使如此,长期盈利能力对于价值创造过程来说更加重要。共识价格目标保持在91.78元,最新的估计不足以对其价格目标产生影响。

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Goneo Group going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

在这一思路之后,我们认为企业的长期前景比明年的盈利更加相关。在Simply Wall St,我们对金奥集团的分析师预测进行了全面的评估,涵盖到2026年,您可以在我们的平台上免费查看这些数据。

Before you take the next step you should know about the 2 warning signs for Goneo Group (1 is concerning!) that we have uncovered.

在您采取下一步之前,您应该知道金奥集团存在两个警示信号(其中一个是令人担忧!)我们已经发现。

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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