The Past Three Years for China Merchants Securities (SHSE:600999) Investors Has Not Been Profitable
The Past Three Years for China Merchants Securities (SHSE:600999) Investors Has Not Been Profitable
It can certainly be frustrating when a stock does not perform as hoped. But when the market is down, you're bound to have some losers. While the China Merchants Securities Co., Ltd. (SHSE:600999) share price is down 25% in the last three years, the total return to shareholders (which includes dividends) was -19%. And that total return actually beats the market decline of 30%.
当股票表现不如预期时,确实会让人感到沮丧。但在市场下跌时,必然会有一些失败者。招商证券股份有限公司(SHSE:600999)的股价在过去三年下跌了25%,股东的总回报(包括分红派息)为-19%。而且总回报实际上超过了市场下跌的30%。
Since shareholders are down over the longer term, lets look at the underlying fundamentals over the that time and see if they've been consistent with returns.
由于股东们长期以来都亏损了,因此让我们回顾过去一段时间的基本面,看看是否一直与收益相一致。
While the efficient markets hypothesis continues to be taught by some, it has been proven that markets are over-reactive dynamic systems, and investors are not always rational. One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.
虽然一些人仍然在教授高效市场假说,但已经证明市场是过度反应的动态系统,投资者不总是理性的。一种有缺陷但合理的评估公司情绪变化的方法是比较每股收益 (EPS) 与股价。
China Merchants Securities saw its EPS decline at a compound rate of 7.0% per year, over the last three years. The share price decline of 9% is actually steeper than the EPS slippage. So it seems the market was too confident about the business, in the past.
招商证券的每股收益以每年7.0%的复合率下降,在过去三年中。股价下跌9%的实际上比每股收益的下滑更加陡峭。因此,看起来市场对该业务过去过于自信。
The graphic below depicts how EPS has changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).
下图显示了EPS随时间变化的情况(点击图像以显示确切值)。
This free interactive report on China Merchants Securities' earnings, revenue and cash flow is a great place to start, if you want to investigate the stock further.
如果您想进一步调查该股票,那么这份关于招商证券收益、营业收入和现金流量的免费互动报告是一个很好的起点。
What About Dividends?
那么分红怎么样呢?
When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. In the case of China Merchants Securities, it has a TSR of -19% for the last 3 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.
在考虑投资回报时,重要的是要区分股东总回报率(TSR)和股价回报率之间的差异。TSR是一种考虑到现金股息价值(假设收到的任何股息都被重新投资)以及任何折价增资和股权分拆的计算值的回报率计算。所以对于支付丰厚股息的公司来说,TSR通常比股价回报率高得多。就招商证券而言,过去3年的TSR为-19%。这超过了我们之前提到过的股价回报率。公司支付的股息因此提高了总股东回报率。
A Different Perspective
不同的观点
It's nice to see that China Merchants Securities shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 3.4% over the last year. And that does include the dividend. That's better than the annualised return of 2% over half a decade, implying that the company is doing better recently. Given the share price momentum remains strong, it might be worth taking a closer look at the stock, lest you miss an opportunity. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. For instance, we've identified 1 warning sign for China Merchants Securities that you should be aware of.
很高兴看到招商证券股东在过去一年中获得了总股东回报率为3.4%的回报。这也包括股息分红。这比在过去的五年中平均回报率为2%要好,这意味着公司的表现近来有所改善。考虑到股价势头依然强劲,值得更仔细地观察一下这只股票,以免错过机会。我发现长期观察股价是作为业务表现的一种代理非常有趣。但要真正获得洞察力,我们还需要考虑其他信息。例如,我们已经发现了一项招商证券的警示信号,您应该知道。
If you would prefer to check out another company -- one with potentially superior financials -- then do not miss this free list of companies that have proven they can grow earnings.
如果您愿意查看另一家公司(具有潜在的更好财务状况),请不要错过这个免费的公司列表,证明它们可以增长收益。
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Chinese exchanges.
请注意,本文引用的市场回报反映了目前在中国交易所上市的股票的市场加权平均回报。
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