Guangdong Aofei Data Technology Co., Ltd.'s (SZSE:300738) stock showed strength, with investors undeterred by its weak earnings report. We think that shareholders might be missing some concerning factors that our analysis found.

Examining Cashflow Against Guangdong Aofei Data Technology's Earnings

One key financial ratio used to measure how well a company converts its profit to free cash flow (FCF) is the accrual ratio. In plain english, this ratio subtracts FCF from net profit, and divides that number by the company's average operating assets over that period. You could think of the accrual ratio from cashflow as the 'non-FCF profit ratio'.

Therefore, it's actually considered a good thing when a company has a negative accrual ratio, but a bad thing if its accrual ratio is positive. That is not intended to imply we should worry about a positive accrual ratio, but it's worth noting where the accrual ratio is rather high. Notably, there is some academic evidence that suggests that a high accrual ratio is a bad sign for near-term profits, generally speaking.

For the year to June 2024, Guangdong Aofei Data Technology had an accrual ratio of 0.21. Therefore, we know that it's free cashflow was significantly lower than its statutory profit, which is hardly a good thing. In the last twelve months it actually had negative free cash flow, with an outflow of CN¥1.4b despite its profit of CN¥143.6m, mentioned above. Coming off the back of negative free cash flow last year, we imagine some shareholders might wonder if its cash burn of CN¥1.4b, this year, indicates high risk. However, that's not all there is to consider. The accrual ratio is reflecting the impact of unusual items on statutory profit, at least in part.

That might leave you wondering what analysts are forecasting in terms of future profitability. Luckily, you can click here to see an interactive graph depicting future profitability, based on their estimates.

The Impact Of Unusual Items On Profit

Given the accrual ratio, it's not overly surprising that Guangdong Aofei Data Technology's profit was boosted by unusual items worth CN¥29m in the last twelve months. While we like to see profit increases, we tend to be a little more cautious when unusual items have made a big contribution. When we analysed the vast majority of listed companies worldwide, we found that significant unusual items are often not repeated. And, after all, that's exactly what the accounting terminology implies. Assuming those unusual items don't show up again in the current year, we'd thus expect profit to be weaker next year (in the absence of business growth, that is).

Our Take On Guangdong Aofei Data Technology's Profit Performance

Guangdong Aofei Data Technology had a weak accrual ratio, but its profit did receive a boost from unusual items. Considering all this we'd argue Guangdong Aofei Data Technology's profits probably give an overly generous impression of its sustainable level of profitability. So while earnings quality is important, it's equally important to consider the risks facing Guangdong Aofei Data Technology at this point in time. When we did our research, we found 3 warning signs for Guangdong Aofei Data Technology (2 are potentially serious!) that we believe deserve your full attention.

Our examination of Guangdong Aofei Data Technology has focussed on certain factors that can make its earnings look better than they are. And, on that basis, we are somewhat skeptical. But there is always more to discover if you are capable of focussing your mind on minutiae. For example, many people consider a high return on equity as an indication of favorable business economics, while others like to 'follow the money' and search out stocks that insiders are buying. While it might take a little research on your behalf, you may find this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks with significant insider holdings to be useful.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.