Jiangxi Welgao Electronics' (SZSE:301251) Shareholders Have More To Worry About Than Lackluster Earnings
Jiangxi Welgao Electronics' (SZSE:301251) Shareholders Have More To Worry About Than Lackluster Earnings
Shareholders didn't appear too concerned by Jiangxi Welgao Electronics Co., Ltd.'s (SZSE:301251) weak earnings. We did some digging, and we believe that investors are missing some worrying factors underlying the profit figures.
江西威尔高电子有限公司(SZSE:301251)的疲软盈利并未引起股东过多关注。我们进行了一些调查,发现投资者忽略了一些潜在盈利数据中的令人担忧的因素。
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Zooming In On Jiangxi Welgao Electronics' Earnings
深入研究江西威尔高电子的盈利情况
As finance nerds would already know, the accrual ratio from cashflow is a key measure for assessing how well a company's free cash flow (FCF) matches its profit. In plain english, this ratio subtracts FCF from net profit, and divides that number by the company's average operating assets over that period. You could think of the accrual ratio from cashflow as the 'non-FCF profit ratio'.
正如金融迷已知,从现金流量的计提比率是评估公司自由现金流(FCF)与利润匹配情况的关键指标。简而言之,这个比率会从净利润中减去FCF,然后将该数字除以该期间公司的平均经营资产。您可以将现金流计提比率视为“非FCF利润比率”。
As a result, a negative accrual ratio is a positive for the company, and a positive accrual ratio is a negative. While it's not a problem to have a positive accrual ratio, indicating a certain level of non-cash profits, a high accrual ratio is arguably a bad thing, because it indicates paper profits are not matched by cash flow. That's because some academic studies have suggested that high accruals ratios tend to lead to lower profit or less profit growth.
因此,负的应计比率对公司是有利的,而正的应计比率则会产生负面影响。虽然正的应计比率不是问题,因为它表示某种程度的非现金利润,但高的应计比率可能是一件坏事,因为它表明纸面利润与现金流不匹配。这是因为一些学术研究表明,高的应计比率往往会导致利润降低或利润增长较少。
Jiangxi Welgao Electronics has an accrual ratio of 0.48 for the year to June 2024. Statistically speaking, that's a real negative for future earnings. To wit, the company did not generate one whit of free cashflow in that time. Even though it reported a profit of CN¥76.8m, a look at free cash flow indicates it actually burnt through CN¥241m in the last year. Coming off the back of negative free cash flow last year, we imagine some shareholders might wonder if its cash burn of CN¥241m, this year, indicates high risk. Having said that, there is more to the story. We can see that unusual items have impacted its statutory profit, and therefore the accrual ratio.
截至2024年6月,江西威尔高电子的应付账款比例为0.48。从统计学角度来看,这对未来的盈利来说是一个真正的负面因素。实际上,在那段时间中公司没有创造任何自由现金流。尽管它报告了7,680万元的利润,但从自由现金流来看,其实际亏损了2,4100万元。在经历了去年的负自由现金流之后,我们想象一些股东可能会想知道,今年2,4100万元的现金流燃烧是否表示高风险。虽然如此,事情并不止于此。我们可以看到飞凡项目对其法定利润产生了影响,因此也影响了应付账款比例。
Note: we always recommend investors check balance sheet strength. Click here to be taken to our balance sheet analysis of Jiangxi Welgao Electronics.
注意:我们始终建议投资者检查资产负债表的实力。点击此处查看我们对江西威尔高电子的资产负债表分析。
The Impact Of Unusual Items On Profit
除了稀释之外,还应该注意的是,万集科技在过去12个月中因不寻常项目获得了价值人民币3.5万元的利润。虽然我们希望看到利润增加,但当这些不寻常项目对利润做出重大贡献时,我们会更加谨慎。我们对全球大部分上市公司的数据进行了分析,发现不寻常项目往往是一次性的。这正如我们所期望的那样,因为这些提升被描述为"不寻常"。相对于其利润而言,万集科技在2021年12月前的不寻常项目贡献大。因此,我们可以推断出,这些不寻常项目正在使其财务利润显著增强。
Given the accrual ratio, it's not overly surprising that Jiangxi Welgao Electronics' profit was boosted by unusual items worth CN¥15m in the last twelve months. While we like to see profit increases, we tend to be a little more cautious when unusual items have made a big contribution. When we analysed the vast majority of listed companies worldwide, we found that significant unusual items are often not repeated. And that's as you'd expect, given these boosts are described as 'unusual'. If Jiangxi Welgao Electronics doesn't see that contribution repeat, then all else being equal we'd expect its profit to drop over the current year.
根据计提比例,不难理解为什么江西威高电子的利润在过去十二个月中受到价值1500万人民币的飞凡项目的推动。虽然我们喜欢看到利润增加,但当飞凡项目产生了巨大贡献时,我们往往会更加谨慎。当我们对全球绝大多数上市公司进行分析时,我们发现重要的非常项目往往不会重复出现。这也是你所期望的,因为这些提振被描述为“不寻常”。如果江西威高电子没有看到这种贡献的重复,那么一切相等的话,我们预计它的利润在当前年度会下降。
Our Take On Jiangxi Welgao Electronics' Profit Performance
我们对江西威高电子的利润表现的看法
Summing up, Jiangxi Welgao Electronics received a nice boost to profit from unusual items, but could not match its paper profit with free cash flow. Considering all this we'd argue Jiangxi Welgao Electronics' profits probably give an overly generous impression of its sustainable level of profitability. Keep in mind, when it comes to analysing a stock it's worth noting the risks involved. Case in point: We've spotted 2 warning signs for Jiangxi Welgao Electronics you should be aware of.
总结一下,江西威高电子从非常项目中获得了利润上的不错提升,但不能通过自由现金流匹配其虚账利润。考虑到所有这些,我们认为江西威高电子的利润很可能给出了一个过分慷慨的可持续盈利水平的印象。请记住,在分析股票时,值得注意涉及的风险。一个例子就是:我们发现江西威高电子有两个警告信号,您应该注意。
Our examination of Jiangxi Welgao Electronics has focussed on certain factors that can make its earnings look better than they are. And, on that basis, we are somewhat skeptical. But there are plenty of other ways to inform your opinion of a company. For example, many people consider a high return on equity as an indication of favorable business economics, while others like to 'follow the money' and search out stocks that insiders are buying. While it might take a little research on your behalf, you may find this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks with significant insider holdings to be useful.
我们对江西威高电子的研究集中在某些因素上,这些因素可能使其收益看起来比实际情况更好。基于这一点,我们有所怀疑。但有很多其他方法可以帮助您了解一家公司。例如,许多人认为高股本回报是有利的商业经济指标,而其他人则喜欢“跟随资金”并寻找内部人员正在购买的股票。虽然这可能需要您进行一些研究,但您可能会发现这些免费收入较高的公司系列或这些具有重要内部持股的股票名单是有用的。
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