2Q24 core results of the telcos were steady on good cost controls, improved CDB merger synergies, and tight competition. MNOs continue to slug it out on fibre-mobile bundles with lower ARPU from entry level plans. RHB said it has lifted its forecasts on CDB and Maxis post results while estimates were lowered for OCK. Key risks are competition, weaker-than-expected earnings, and regulatory setbacks.
Axiata was the sole outperformer in the June reporting season while OCK fell short of and consensus numbers. Axiata's earnings were bolstered by the strong operating performance of its mobile assets inIndonesia, Bangladesh, Cambodia and its towerco unit (edotCo) with 1H24 EBIT growth of 40% being ahead of 2024 KPI of mid-teens growth. OCK's earnings were crimped by weaker billings from the engineering/contracting segment due to the uncertainties on the 5G second network process with the earnings slack to be partly made up for in 2H24.
Overall sector core earnings fell 5.4% YoY in 2Q24, mainly due to the high base of Telekom Malaysia's earnings in FY23 from tax credits and down a marginal 0.4% QoQ.Steady industry mobile revenue; Maxis revenue and EBITDA market share ccontinue to inch higher. Industry mobile revenue (Big-2) ticked up a marginal 0.8% YoY in 1H24 (+0.2% QoQ). The contraction in industry prepaid revenue persisted (-0.6% QoQ, -2% YoY) on the back of SIM consolidation and pre-topost migration. This was offset by higher postpaid growth (+0.8% QoQ, +3.3% YoY).
Maxis' MSR share inched higher to 43.7% in 2Q24 from 43.5% in 1Q24, at the expense of CDB whose MSR share narrowed further to 56.3% from 56.5% in 1Q24. This came from a 2% QoQ decline in prepaid revenue as subs churn more than double sequentially from higher SIM rotation. On EBITDA market share (EMS) (Big-2), Maxis' EMS improved for the third quarter in a row to 42.8% (1Q24: 41.4%) while CDB's slipped marginally to 57.2% in 2Q24 from 58.6% in 1Q24. Based on media reports, 5G subs (4G subs included) have exceeded 14m at end-May or c.41% of the population (c.28% of subs base).
Fibre broadband (FBB) competition stays keen. With MNOs aggressively upselling/cross-selling FBB packages, TM's share of industry FBB net-adds have decelerated, with lower net-adds of c.10k/quarter on average in 1H24 vs 34k/quarter in FY23.
Four MNOs have submitted their tender for 5G spectrum (TM, Maxis, CDB, and U Mobile). The outcome is expected by 4Q24 with spectrum to be awarded on an apparatus assignment basis. The house sees Maxis as a front-runner for the second 5G network. With TM's share subscription agreement for Digital Nasional Berhad (DNB) terminated, it is likely that TM's tender submission will be disqualified. Management believes it can still play a significant role in the nation's 5G eco-system by being a 5G access seeker. TM's non-participation in DNB's equity and/or the second 5G network is not a concern, as it would be better off providing wholesale 5G fibre backhaul access to 5G network owners.
24年第二季度，由于成本控制得当、国家开发银行合并协同效应提高以及竞争激烈，电信公司的核心业绩保持稳定。MNO 继续在光纤移动套餐中大放异彩，其ARPU低于入门级计划。RhB表示，它已经上调了对CdB和Maxis公布业绩的预测，同时下调了对OCK的预期。关键风险是竞争、低于预期的收益和监管方面的挫折。
Axiata是6月报告季中唯一表现跑赢大盘的公司，而OCK则没有达到共识数字。Axiata的收益得益于其在印度尼西亚、孟加拉国、柬埔寨的移动资产及其塔科部门（eDotCo）的强劲经营业绩，24年上半年的息税前利润增长了40％，高于2024年十几岁的关键绩效指标。由于5G第二网络流程的不确定性，工程/承包领域的账单疲软，OCK的收益受到抑制，收益疲软将在24年下半年部分弥补。
该行业整体核心收益在24年第二季度同比下降5.4％，这主要是由于马来西亚电信在23财年从税收抵免中获得的收益基数很高，环比略下降了0.4％。行业移动收入稳定；Maxis收入和息税折旧摊销前利润市场份额继续小幅上升。行业移动收入（Big-2）在24年上半年同比小幅增长0.8％（环比增长0.2％）。由于SIM卡整合和前后迁移，行业预付费收入持续萎缩（环比下降0.6％，同比下降2％）。这被更高的后付费增长（环比增长0.8％，同比增长3.3％）所抵消。
Maxis的MSR份额从24年第一季度的43.5％小幅上升至24年第二季度的43.7％，这要归因于CDB，其MSR份额从24年第一季度的56.5％进一步缩小至56.3％。这源于预付费收入环比下降了2％，这是由于SIM卡周转率的增加，订阅量连续流失了两倍以上。在息税折旧摊销前利润（EMS）（Big-2）方面，明讯的EMS连续第三季度增长至42.8％（24年第一季度：41.4％），而国开行的EMS从24年第一季度的58.6％小幅下滑至24年第二季度的57.2％。根据媒体报道，截至5月底，5G订阅者（包括4G订阅者）已超过1400万，占人口的约41％（约占订阅量基础的28％）。
光纤宽带（FBB）竞争依然激烈。随着移动网络运营商积极向上销售/交叉销售fBB套餐，TM在行业fBB净增量中的份额有所减速，24年上半年的平均净增加量为1万左右，低于23财年的3.4万个季度。
四家移动运营商已经提交了5G频谱的招标（Tm、Maxis、cdB和U Mobile）。结果预计将在24年第四季度公布，频谱将在设备分配的基础上授予。该公司将明讯视为第二个5G网络的领跑者。随着TM对Digital Nasional Berhad（DNB）的股票认购协议终止，TM提交的投标可能会被取消资格。管理层认为，通过成为5G接入寻求者，它仍然可以在美国的5G生态系统中发挥重要作用。TM不参与DNB的股权和/或第二个5G网络并不令人担忧，因为最好向5G网络所有者提供批发的5G光纤回程接入。
