The online dating industry had a somewhat awkward second quarter. Global spending showed a modest 3% year-over-year growth — in line with JPMorgan analysts' expectations.
Cory A Carpenter, Daniel Pfeiffer and Doug Anmuth shared their views on the online dating industry in the light of the recent earnings reports. There's one key observation they share: Not all dating apps are feeling the love equally.
Tinder Stabilizes, Bumble Stumbles
Match Group Inc (NASDAQ:MTCH) owned Tinder showed "encouraging signs of stability" this quarter, with growth holding steady at 1% year-over-year.
On the other hand, Bumble Inc's (NASDAQ:BMBL) attempt to reignite the Bumble dating app's appeal with a much-hyped relaunch seemed to fizzle out faster than a bad first date. The result? Bumble had to dramatically cut its 2024 revenue outlook from a hopeful 8-11% down to a mere 1-2%, prompting JPMorgan to revise their third-quarter industry growth expectations from 3% to just 1% year-over-year.
Hinge & Grindr: The Life Of The Party
While Bumble struggled, Match Group's Hinge and China-based Beijing Kunlun Tech Co.-owned Grindr, were the life of the party.
Hinge, with its "sustainably growing over 20%" year-over-year, achieved a whopping 48% year-over-year growth, while Grindr wasn't far behind with 34% year-over-year.
These apps have consistently "exceeded expectations" in recent quarters and show no signs of slowing down. In fact, the analysts predict Hinge will continue to shine with 35% year-over-year revenue growth in 3Q, while Grindr is set to see a 23% increase.
Read Also: Elliott Management Raises Stakes On Online Dating, E-Commerce, Airline Bets: What Investors Should Know
Looking Ahead: Swipe Right On 2025?
As we look to the future, JPMorgan analysts remain cautiously optimistic. They expect online dating trends to start improving in the fourth quarter of 2024, with a return to high-single-digit (HSD) growth in 2025. Tinder is expected to step up its game, with growth projected to move into the mid-single digits, driven by gains in both revenue per payer and user numbers.
However, the road to lasting love (and growth) isn't without its bumps.
The analysts warn that to maintain high single-digit growth beyond 2025, the industry will need a serious dose of innovation. Without fresh features and a more satisfying user experience, the online dating world could be in for a cold swipe left.
- Match Group's Stock Swipes Right On Golden Cross: What Does This Mean For Investors?
在线约会行业在第二季度有些尴尬。全球支出呈现温和的3%年增长，与摩根大通分析师的预期相符。
Cory A Carpenter、Daniel Pfeiffer和Doug Anmuth在最近的财报中对在线约会行业发表了观点。他们有一个关键观察结果：并不是所有的约会应用都感受到了相同的爱。
Tinder稳定，Bumble失利。
纳斯达克股票代码为MTCH的Match Group旗下的Tinder在本季度显示出“稳定的迹象”，年增长率为1%。
另一方面，Bumble Inc（纳斯达克股票代码为BMBL）试图通过一次备受瞩目的重新推出来提升Bumble约会应用的吸引力，但结果却比一次糟糕的第一次约会还要糟糕。其结果是，Bumble不得不将2024年的营业收入前景从8-11%的希望值大幅下调至仅1-2%，促使摩根大通将第三季度行业增长预期从3%调整为仅1%的年增长率。
Hinge和Grindr：派对的生活
当Bumble遇到困难时，Match Group旗下的Hinge和中国昆仑万维旗下的Grindr则成为派对的焦点。
Hinge年增长率持续超过20%，实现了惊人的48%年增长，而Grindr的年增长率也不远，为34%。
这些应用在最近几个季度始终"超过预期"，并且没有放缓的迹象。事实上，分析师预测Hinge在第三季度的年增长率将达到35％，而Grindr则预计将增长23％。
也请阅读：艾略特管理公司加大对在线约会，电子商务，航空公司的投注：投资者应了解的情况
展望未来：2025年右滑可以吗？
展望未来，摩根大通分析师持谨慎乐观态度。他们预计在线约会行业的趋势将在2024年第四季度开始好转，在2025年实现高个位数增长。预计Tinder将加强竞争力，预计增长将进入中个位数，由每位付费用户的收入和用户数量的增长推动。
然而，通往持久的爱情（和增长）并非一帆风顺。
分析师警告说，要在2025年之后保持高个位数增长，该行业需要大量创新。如果没有新功能和更令人满意的用户体验，在线约会世界可能会受到冷遇。
- match group的股票凭借着金十字交叉买入：这对投资者意味着什么？
