Is CF Industries Holdings (NYSE:CF) Using Too Much Debt?
Is CF Industries Holdings (NYSE:CF) Using Too Much Debt?
The external fund manager backed by Berkshire Hathaway's Charlie Munger, Li Lu, makes no bones about it when he says 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' So it might be obvious that you need to consider debt, when you think about how risky any given stock is, because too much debt can sink a company. We can see that CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:CF) does use debt in its business. But the real question is whether this debt is making the company risky.
由伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司的查理·芒格支持的外部基金经理李露对此毫不掩饰,他说:“最大的投资风险不是价格的波动,而是你是否会遭受永久的资本损失。”因此,很明显,当你考虑任何给定股票的风险时,你需要考虑债务,因为过多的债务会使公司陷入困境。我们可以看到,CF工业控股有限公司(纽约证券交易所代码:CF)确实在其业务中使用了债务。但真正的问题是这笔债务是否使公司面临风险。
Why Does Debt Bring Risk?
为什么债务会带来风险?
Generally speaking, debt only becomes a real problem when a company can't easily pay it off, either by raising capital or with its own cash flow. If things get really bad, the lenders can take control of the business. However, a more frequent (but still costly) occurrence is where a company must issue shares at bargain-basement prices, permanently diluting shareholders, just to shore up its balance sheet. By replacing dilution, though, debt can be an extremely good tool for businesses that need capital to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we examine debt levels, we first consider both cash and debt levels, together.
一般而言,只有当公司无法通过筹集资金或用自己的现金流轻松还清债务时,债务才会成为真正的问题。如果情况变得非常糟糕,贷款人可以控制业务。但是,更频繁(但仍然代价高昂)的情况是,公司必须以低廉的价格发行股票,永久稀释股东,以支撑其资产负债表。但是,通过取代稀释,对于需要资金以高回报率投资增长的企业来说,债务可能是一个非常好的工具。当我们研究债务水平时,我们首先要同时考虑现金和债务水平。
What Is CF Industries Holdings's Net Debt?
CF Industries Holdings的净负债是多少?
The chart below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that CF Industries Holdings had US$2.97b in debt in June 2024; about the same as the year before. However, because it has a cash reserve of US$1.82b, its net debt is less, at about US$1.15b.
您可以点击下图查看更多详情,该图表显示,2024年6月,CF Industries Holdings的债务为29.7亿美元;与前一年大致相同。但是,由于其现金储备为18.2亿美元,其净负债较少,约为11.5亿美元。
![big](https://usnewsfile.moomoo.com/public/MM-PersistNewsContentImage/7781/20240904/0-8a36ab01c8c16bd1c21ef2ea781c9f32-0-433001b6f9b0b271c6199b8fca2ee413.png/big)
How Healthy Is CF Industries Holdings' Balance Sheet?
CF Industries Holdings的资产负债表有多健康?
We can see from the most recent balance sheet that CF Industries Holdings had liabilities of US$596.0m falling due within a year, and liabilities of US$5.08b due beyond that. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of US$1.82b as well as receivables valued at US$531.0m due within 12 months. So its liabilities outweigh the sum of its cash and (near-term) receivables by US$3.32b.
我们可以从最新的资产负债表中看出,CF Industries Holdings的负债为5.96亿美元,一年后到期的负债为50.8亿美元。除这些债务外,它有18.2亿美元的现金以及价值5.310亿美元的应收账款在12个月内到期。因此,其负债超过其现金和(短期)应收账款总额33.2亿美元。
This deficit isn't so bad because CF Industries Holdings is worth a massive US$15.0b, and thus could probably raise enough capital to shore up its balance sheet, if the need arose. But we definitely want to keep our eyes open to indications that its debt is bringing too much risk.
这种赤字还不错,因为CF Industries Holdings的市值高达150亿美元,因此,如果需要,可能会筹集足够的资金来支撑其资产负债表。但是,我们绝对希望留意其债务带来过大风险的迹象。
We use two main ratios to inform us about debt levels relative to earnings. The first is net debt divided by earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), while the second is how many times its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) covers its interest expense (or its interest cover, for short). This way, we consider both the absolute quantum of the debt, as well as the interest rates paid on it.
我们使用两个主要比率来告知我们相对于收益的债务水平。第一个是净负债除以利息、税项、折旧和摊销前的收益(EBITDA),第二个是其利息和税前收益(EBIT)覆盖其利息支出(或简称利息保障)的多少倍。这样,我们既考虑债务的绝对数量,也考虑为债务支付的利率。
CF Industries Holdings has a low net debt to EBITDA ratio of only 0.45. And its EBIT easily covers its interest expense, being 828 times the size. So you could argue it is no more threatened by its debt than an elephant is by a mouse. The modesty of its debt load may become crucial for CF Industries Holdings if management cannot prevent a repeat of the 54% cut to EBIT over the last year. When a company sees its earnings tank, it can sometimes find its relationships with its lenders turn sour. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if CF Industries Holdings can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.
CF Industries Holdings的净负债与息税折旧摊销前利润比率很低,仅为0.45。而且其息税前利润很容易弥补其利息支出,是其规模的828倍。因此,你可以争辩说,它受到债务的威胁并不比大象受到老鼠的威胁更大。如果管理层无法阻止去年削减54%的息税前利润,那么其适度的债务负担可能对CF Industries Holdings至关重要。当一家公司看到盈利下降时,它有时会发现与贷款机构的关系恶化。在分析债务水平时,资产负债表是显而易见的起点。但最终,该业务未来的盈利能力将决定CF Industries Holdings能否随着时间的推移加强其资产负债表。因此,如果您专注于未来,可以查看这份显示分析师利润预测的免费报告。
But our final consideration is also important, because a company cannot pay debt with paper profits; it needs cold hard cash. So it's worth checking how much of that EBIT is backed by free cash flow. During the last three years, CF Industries Holdings generated free cash flow amounting to a very robust 80% of its EBIT, more than we'd expect. That puts it in a very strong position to pay down debt.
但是我们最终的考虑因素也很重要,因为公司无法用纸面利润来偿还债务;它需要冷硬现金。因此,值得检查一下该息税前利润中有多少是由自由现金流支持的。在过去三年中,CF Industries Holdings产生的自由现金流相当于其息税前利润的80%,超出了我们的预期。这使其在偿还债务方面处于非常有利的地位。
Our View
我们的观点
CF Industries Holdings's interest cover suggests it can handle its debt as easily as Cristiano Ronaldo could score a goal against an under 14's goalkeeper. But the stark truth is that we are concerned by its EBIT growth rate. All these things considered, it appears that CF Industries Holdings can comfortably handle its current debt levels. On the plus side, this leverage can boost shareholder returns, but the potential downside is more risk of loss, so it's worth monitoring the balance sheet. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. For instance, we've identified 2 warning signs for CF Industries Holdings (1 is concerning) you should be aware of.
CF Industries Holdings的利息保障表明,它可以像克里斯蒂亚诺·罗纳尔多在对阵14岁以下的守门员的比赛中进球一样轻松地处理债务。但严峻的事实是,我们对其息税前利润增长率感到担忧。考虑到所有这些因素,看来CF Industries Holdings可以轻松应对其当前的债务水平。从好的方面来看,这种杠杆作用可以提高股东的回报,但潜在的缺点是损失风险更大,因此值得关注资产负债表。毫无疑问,我们从资产负债表中学到的关于债务的知识最多。但归根结底,每家公司都可以控制资产负债表之外存在的风险。例如,我们已经确定了CF Industries Holdings的两个警告信号(其中一个令人担忧),你应该注意。
If you're interested in investing in businesses that can grow profits without the burden of debt, then check out this free list of growing businesses that have net cash on the balance sheet.
如果你有兴趣投资能够在没有债务负担的情况下增加利润的企业,请查看这份资产负债表上有净现金的成长型企业的免费清单。
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Simply Wall St的这篇文章本质上是笼统的。我们仅使用公正的方法根据历史数据和分析师的预测提供评论,我们的文章无意作为财务建议。它不构成买入或卖出任何股票的建议,也没有考虑到您的目标或财务状况。我们的目标是为您提供由基本数据驱动的长期重点分析。请注意,我们的分析可能不考虑最新的价格敏感型公司公告或定性材料。简而言之,华尔街没有持有任何上述股票的头寸。