We Think That There Are More Issues For Jiangsu Ruitai New Energy Materials (SZSE:301238) Than Just Sluggish Earnings
We Think That There Are More Issues For Jiangsu Ruitai New Energy Materials (SZSE:301238) Than Just Sluggish Earnings
A lackluster earnings announcement from Jiangsu Ruitai New Energy Materials Co., Ltd. (SZSE:301238) last week didn't sink the stock price. However, we believe that investors should be aware of some underlying factors which may be of concern.
江苏瑞泰新能源材料股份有限公司(SZSE:301238)上周发布的乏善可陈的业绩公告并没有导致股价下跌。然而,我们认为投资者应该注意一些可能引起关注的潜在因素。
Examining Cashflow Against Jiangsu Ruitai New Energy Materials' Earnings
分析江苏瑞泰新能源材料公司的现金流情况与收益进行对比
In high finance, the key ratio used to measure how well a company converts reported profits into free cash flow (FCF) is the accrual ratio (from cashflow). In plain english, this ratio subtracts FCF from net profit, and divides that number by the company's average operating assets over that period. The ratio shows us how much a company's profit exceeds its FCF.
在高端金融中,用于衡量公司如何将报告的利润转化为自由现金流(FCF)的关键比率是应计比率(从现金流量表中)。简单地说,该比率将FCF减去净利润,然后将该数字除以该期间公司的平均运营资产。该比率向我们展示了公司利润超过FCF的程度。
Therefore, it's actually considered a good thing when a company has a negative accrual ratio, but a bad thing if its accrual ratio is positive. While having an accrual ratio above zero is of little concern, we do think it's worth noting when a company has a relatively high accrual ratio. Notably, there is some academic evidence that suggests that a high accrual ratio is a bad sign for near-term profits, generally speaking.
因此,当一个公司的应计项目比率为负时,实际上是一件好事,但如果它的应计项目比率为正,则是一件坏事。虽然应计项目比率超过零不太值得关注,但我们认为当一个公司的应计项目比率相对较高时值得注意。需要注意的是,一些学术证据表明,高应计项目比率通常是短期利润的一个不好的迹象。
Jiangsu Ruitai New Energy Materials has an accrual ratio of 0.37 for the year to June 2024. As a general rule, that bodes poorly for future profitability. To wit, the company did not generate one whit of free cashflow in that time. In the last twelve months it actually had negative free cash flow, with an outflow of CN¥762m despite its profit of CN¥294.0m, mentioned above. We saw that FCF was CN¥607m a year ago though, so Jiangsu Ruitai New Energy Materials has at least been able to generate positive FCF in the past. Having said that, there is more to the story. The accrual ratio is reflecting the impact of unusual items on statutory profit, at least in part. The good news for shareholders is that Jiangsu Ruitai New Energy Materials' accrual ratio was much better last year, so this year's poor reading might simply be a case of a short term mismatch between profit and FCF. Shareholders should look for improved cashflow relative to profit in the current year, if that is indeed the case.
截至2024年6月底,江苏瑞泰新能源材料的应计比率为0.37。一般来说,这对未来的盈利能力不利。也就是说,在此期间,该公司并没有产生任何自由现金流,尽管其盈利为2.94亿人民币,但实际上过去12个月它的自由现金流为负值,流出了7620万人民币。然而,一年前的自由现金流为6070万人民币,所以江苏瑞泰新能源材料至少过去能够产生正值的自由现金流。话虽如此,事情的真相远不止如此。应计比率在一定程度上反映了非常规项目对法定利润的影响。股东们的好消息是,江苏瑞泰新能源材料去年的应计比率要好得多,因此今年的糟糕数据可能只是盈利和自由现金流之间短期不匹配的情况。如果情况确实如此,股东们应该寻求当前年份的现金流与盈利之间的改善。
Note: we always recommend investors check balance sheet strength. Click here to be taken to our balance sheet analysis of Jiangsu Ruitai New Energy Materials.
注意:我们始终建议投资者查看资产负债表的强度。点击这里查看江苏睿泰新能源材料的资产负债表分析。
How Do Unusual Items Influence Profit?
非常规项目如何影响利润?
Given the accrual ratio, it's not overly surprising that Jiangsu Ruitai New Energy Materials' profit was boosted by unusual items worth CN¥25m in the last twelve months. We can't deny that higher profits generally leave us optimistic, but we'd prefer it if the profit were to be sustainable. When we crunched the numbers on thousands of publicly listed companies, we found that a boost from unusual items in a given year is often not repeated the next year. Which is hardly surprising, given the name. If Jiangsu Ruitai New Energy Materials doesn't see that contribution repeat, then all else being equal we'd expect its profit to drop over the current year.
考虑到应计比率,江苏睿泰新能源材料在过去12个月的利润得到了价值为2500万元的非常规项目的提振,这并不令人过于惊讶。我们不能否认高利润通常会让我们乐观,但我们希望这种利润能够持续下去。当我们对成千上万家上市公司的数据进行分析时,我们发现在某一年里来自非常规项目的提振往往在下一年不会再次出现。这并不奇怪,鉴于它的名字。如果江苏睿泰新能源材料没有看到这个贡献的重复,那么其他条件相同,我们预计它的利润在当前年度会下降。
Our Take On Jiangsu Ruitai New Energy Materials' Profit Performance
对江苏睿泰新能源材料的利润表现我们的看法
Summing up, Jiangsu Ruitai New Energy Materials received a nice boost to profit from unusual items, but could not match its paper profit with free cash flow. For the reasons mentioned above, we think that a perfunctory glance at Jiangsu Ruitai New Energy Materials' statutory profits might make it look better than it really is on an underlying level. So if you'd like to dive deeper into this stock, it's crucial to consider any risks it's facing. Case in point: We've spotted 2 warning signs for Jiangsu Ruitai New Energy Materials you should be mindful of and 1 of these is a bit concerning.
总结一下,江苏睿泰新能源材料从非常规项目中获得了利润的大幅提升,但无法通过自由现金流来证明其纸面利润。基于上述原因,我们认为仅仔细浏览江苏睿泰新能源材料的法定利润可能会使其看起来比实际情况好一些。因此,如果您想更深入地了解这只股票,考虑到它面临的任何风险是至关重要的。例如,我们发现了2个对江苏睿泰新能源材料的警示信号,您应该予以关注,其中有1个有点令人担忧。
Our examination of Jiangsu Ruitai New Energy Materials has focussed on certain factors that can make its earnings look better than they are. And, on that basis, we are somewhat skeptical. But there are plenty of other ways to inform your opinion of a company. For example, many people consider a high return on equity as an indication of favorable business economics, while others like to 'follow the money' and search out stocks that insiders are buying. So you may wish to see this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks with high insider ownership.
我们对江苏睿泰新能源材料的考察侧重于可以让其收益看起来比实际情况更好的因素。基于这个基础,我们有些怀疑。但是还有很多其他方法可以了解一家公司。例如,很多人认为高净资产回报率是良好的商业经济指标,而其他人则喜欢“跟着钱走”,寻找内部人员正在买入的股票。所以您可能希望查看这个高净资产回报率的免费公司集合,或者这个高内部持股的股票列表。
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