Impressive Earnings May Not Tell The Whole Story For Shanghai Automobile Air-Conditioner Accessories (SHSE:603107)
Impressive Earnings May Not Tell The Whole Story For Shanghai Automobile Air-Conditioner Accessories (SHSE:603107)
Shanghai Automobile Air-Conditioner Accessories Co., Ltd.'s (SHSE:603107) robust earnings report didn't manage to move the market for its stock. We did some digging, and we found some concerning factors in the details.
上海汽车空调配件股份有限公司(SHSE:603107)强劲的收益报告未能推动其股票市场。我们进行了一些调查,并在细节中发现了一些令人担忧的因素。
Zooming In On Shanghai Automobile Air-Conditioner Accessories' Earnings
聚焦上海汽车空调配件的盈利能力
One key financial ratio used to measure how well a company converts its profit to free cash flow (FCF) is the accrual ratio. To get the accrual ratio we first subtract FCF from profit for a period, and then divide that number by the average operating assets for the period. You could think of the accrual ratio from cashflow as the 'non-FCF profit ratio'.
用于衡量公司将其利润转化为自由现金流(FCF)的一项关键财务比率是应计比率。要获得应计比率,我们首先将某一时期的FCF从利润中减去,然后将该数字除以该时期平均经营资产。您可以将来自现金流的应计比率视为“非FCF获利比例”。
Therefore, it's actually considered a good thing when a company has a negative accrual ratio, but a bad thing if its accrual ratio is positive. That is not intended to imply we should worry about a positive accrual ratio, but it's worth noting where the accrual ratio is rather high. That's because some academic studies have suggested that high accruals ratios tend to lead to lower profit or less profit growth.
因此,当一家公司的应计项目比率为负时,实际上是一件好事,但如果其应计项目比率为正,则是一件坏事。这并不意味着我们应该担心应计项目比率为正,但值得注意的是,当应计项目比率相当高时,可能会导致利润或利润增长降低。
Over the twelve months to June 2024, Shanghai Automobile Air-Conditioner Accessories recorded an accrual ratio of 0.26. Unfortunately, that means its free cash flow fell significantly short of its reported profits. In the last twelve months it actually had negative free cash flow, with an outflow of CN¥103m despite its profit of CN¥187.2m, mentioned above. Coming off the back of negative free cash flow last year, we imagine some shareholders might wonder if its cash burn of CN¥103m, this year, indicates high risk. Having said that, there is more to the story. We can see that unusual items have impacted its statutory profit, and therefore the accrual ratio.
在截至2024年6月的十二个月内,上海汽车空调配件的应计比例为0.26。不幸的是,这意味着其自由现金流大大低于其报告的利润。在过去的十二个月中,尽管其利润为1.872亿元人民币,但实际上其自由现金流为负值,流出了1.03亿元人民币。考虑到去年的负面自由现金流,我们可以想象一些股东可能会想知道,今年的10.3亿元人民币的现金燃烧是否表示高风险。尽管如此,故事还有更多内容。我们可以看到一些异常项目影响了其法定利润,从而影响了应计比例。
Note: we always recommend investors check balance sheet strength. Click here to be taken to our balance sheet analysis of Shanghai Automobile Air-Conditioner Accessories.
注意:我们始终建议投资者检查资产负债表实力。单击此处查看我们对上海汽车空调配件资产负债表分析。
How Do Unusual Items Influence Profit?
非常规项目如何影响利润?
As it happens, there are a few different things to consider when we look at Shanghai Automobile Air-Conditioner Accessories' profit and the last one we'll mention is CN¥18m gain booked as unusual items. While we like to see profit increases, we tend to be a little more cautious when unusual items have made a big contribution. When we crunched the numbers on thousands of publicly listed companies, we found that a boost from unusual items in a given year is often not repeated the next year. Which is hardly surprising, given the name. If Shanghai Automobile Air-Conditioner Accessories doesn't see that contribution repeat, then all else being equal we'd expect its profit to drop over the current year.
事实上,当我们查看上海汽车空调附件的利润时,有一些不同的因素需要考虑,最后一个是作为非常规项目的获利为1800万人民币。虽然我们希望看到利润增加,但当非常规项目对利润有很大贡献时,我们往往会更加谨慎。当我们对成千上万家上市公司进行数据分析时,我们发现在一年中由非常规项目带来的增长通常不会在下一年重复。这并不奇怪,鉴于它的名字。如果上海汽车空调附件不再看到这种贡献重复,那么其他条件相等的情况下,我们预计它的利润在当前年份将下降。
Our Take On Shanghai Automobile Air-Conditioner Accessories' Profit Performance
对于上海汽车空调附件的利润表现,我们的看法
Summing up, Shanghai Automobile Air-Conditioner Accessories received a nice boost to profit from unusual items, but could not match its paper profit with free cash flow. Considering all this we'd argue Shanghai Automobile Air-Conditioner Accessories' profits probably give an overly generous impression of its sustainable level of profitability. So while earnings quality is important, it's equally important to consider the risks facing Shanghai Automobile Air-Conditioner Accessories at this point in time. When we did our research, we found 2 warning signs for Shanghai Automobile Air-Conditioner Accessories (1 shouldn't be ignored!) that we believe deserve your full attention.
总结一下,上海汽车空调附件从非常规项目中获得了不错的利润增长,但无法用自由现金流进一步提高其盈利水平。综合考虑所有这些,我们认为上海汽车空调附件的利润可能会给人一种过于慷慨的盈利能力的印象。因此,尽管收益质量很重要,但同样重要的是考虑上海汽车空调附件当前所面临的风险。当我们进行研究时,我们发现了两个对于上海汽车空调附件的警告信号(其中一个不容忽视!)我们认为这些信号值得您的充分关注。
In this article we've looked at a number of factors that can impair the utility of profit numbers, and we've come away cautious. But there is always more to discover if you are capable of focussing your mind on minutiae. Some people consider a high return on equity to be a good sign of a quality business. While it might take a little research on your behalf, you may find this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks with significant insider holdings to be useful.
在这篇文章中,我们已经看到了许多可以削弱利润数字实用性的因素,并且我们留下了审慎的心态。但是,如果您能够专注于细节,那么总能发现更多。一些人认为高股东回报率是优质企业的良好迹象。尽管这可能需要您进行一些研究,但您可能会发现这个高股东回报率公司列表或至少有一个重要内部持股的股票列表对您有所帮助。
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