The $CommBank (CBA.AU)$ share price continues to push higher in 2024. In an awe-inspiring effort, the stock is up 298% this year to date and isn't showing any signs of slowing.
It is up 15% in the past month alone and is swapping hands at $143.75 apiece at publication on Friday afternoon.
The momentum also follows Commonwealth Bank's strong FY24 result, and many investors are wondering whether its share price can keep climbing.
Some analysts are bullish on the stock. Let's take a closer look.
Lending growth fuelling CBA share price
One key driver behind the CBA share price rise is lending growth. The bank lent $39 billion to businesses over the twelve months to FY24 and provided home financing to around 120,000 households.
In total, new fundings were up $10 billion over the year. This fits with the industry-wide trend.
The latest data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) shows that new loan commitments rose modestly in July 2024.
Housing loan commitments increased by 3.9%, while business construction loans climbed by 3.8%. Meanwhile, personal fixed-term loans also saw a rise of 2.2%.
According to Philip Pepe, Senior Equities Analyst at Shaw and Partners, there is a strong correlation between lending growth and the performance of Australian bank share prices.
He notes that more than half of Aussie bank share price growth is tied to the volume of loans.
My [basic] analysis shows that the share price performance of Australian banks is circa 65-70% correlated with the growth/volume of loans.
It appears that regardless of many sell-side analysts calling the Australian banks expensive, lending growth probably means share price growth. And if/when we do eventually get interest rate reductions in Australia, that may further fuel lending growth and perhaps also drive bank share prices even higher.
Whilst Pepe didn't tie this to Commonwealth Bank directly, with lending on the rise, it's no surprise the CBA share price is following suit.
Analyst opinions
So what is the opinion on CBA at this point in time? Well, despite the bank's strong performance, not all analysts are convinced that the CBA share price can sustain its current levels.
Some brokers have voiced concerns about CBA being overvalued. Morgans is bearish, with a price target of $97.38 apiece.
This is an eye-watering 32% decline if the broker is correct.
Those at Morgan Stanley are also bearish, setting a price target on the CBA share price of $103.
But Goldman Sachs remains the most bearish. The broker rates Commonwealth Bank a sell, with an even lower price target of $94.80, which suggests a potential downside of 34%.
Goldman also raised concerns about CBA's valuation, which could impact investment returns moving forward.
Foolish takeaway
The CBA share price has been on an impressive run this year, but opinions remain divided about its future trajectory.
Some analysts see risks and potential downside, but others highlight the industry's growth in lending as a key tailwind.
The stock is up 42% in the past 12 months.
澳大利亚联邦银行 (ASX: CBA) 的股价在2024年继续上涨。该股今年迄今已上涨298%,没有任何放缓的迹象,这是一项令人敬畏的努力。
仅在过去一个月中,它就上涨了15%,并在周五下午发布时以每股143.75美元的价格互换。
这种势头也是在联邦银行公布了强劲的24财年业绩之后出现的,许多投资者想知道其股价能否继续攀升。
一些分析师看好该股。让我们仔细看看。
贷款增长推动了CBA股价
CBA股价上涨背后的一个关键驱动因素是贷款增长。在截至24财年的十二个月中,该银行向企业贷款了390亿美元,并为约12万个家庭提供了住房融资。
全年新增资金总额增加了100亿美元。这符合整个行业的趋势。
澳大利亚统计局(ABS)的最新数据显示,2024年7月新的贷款承诺略有增加。
住房贷款承诺增加了3.9%,而商业建设贷款增长了3.8%。同时,个人定期贷款也增长了2.2%。
Shaw and Partners高级股票分析师菲利普·佩佩表示,贷款增长与澳大利亚银行股价表现之间存在很强的相关性。
他指出,澳大利亚银行股价增长的一半以上与贷款量有关。
我的 [基本] 分析表明,澳大利亚银行的股价表现与贷款的增长/数量的相关性约为65-70%。
看来,尽管有许多卖方分析师称澳大利亚银行价格昂贵,但贷款增长可能意味着股价的增长。而且,如果/当我们最终降低澳大利亚的利率时,这可能会进一步推动贷款增长,也可能推动银行股价进一步上涨。
尽管佩佩没有将其直接与联邦银行挂钩,贷款呈上升趋势,但CBA股价紧随其后也就不足为奇了。
分析师观点
那么现在对CBA有什么看法呢?好吧,尽管该银行表现强劲,但并非所有分析师都相信CBA的股价可以维持目前的水平。
一些经纪商对CBA被高估表示担忧。摩根看跌,目标股价为每股97.38美元。
如果经纪商是正确的,则跌幅为32%,令人眼花缭乱。
摩根士丹利的股价也看跌,将CBA股价的目标股价定为103美元。
但高盛仍然是最看跌的。该经纪商将联邦银行评为卖出,目标股价甚至更低,为94.80美元,这表明潜在的下行空间为34%。
高盛还对CBA的估值表示担忧,这可能会影响未来的投资回报。
愚蠢的外卖
今年CBA的股价表现令人印象深刻,但对其未来走势的看法仍然存在分歧。
一些分析师认为风险和潜在的下行空间,但另一些分析师则强调该行业的贷款增长是关键的利好因素。
该股在过去12个月中上涨了42%。