Treasury Yields Plunge, TLT ETF Tops $100, VIX Spikes As 50-Basis-Point Rate Cut Odds Soar In Response To Jobs Data
Treasury Yields Plunge, TLT ETF Tops $100, VIX Spikes As 50-Basis-Point Rate Cut Odds Soar In Response To Jobs Data
Traders poured into bonds amid growing expectations of declining interest rates, driving yields sharply lower across the Treasury curve.The U.S. Treasury market rallied sharply on Friday after August labor data showed weaker-than-expected job growth, bolstering bets on Federal Reserve interest rate cuts.
由于8月劳工数据显示就业增长低于预期，美国国债市场在周五大幅上涨，支撑了对美联储降息的预期。
The U.S. economy added 142,000 nonfarm payrolls last month, an increase from 89,000 in July but missing the expected increase to 160,000. The unemployment rate ticked down by 0.1% to 4.3% as expected, while wages displayed higher-than-forecasted growth.
上个月美国经济新增非农就业14.2万人，比7月的8.9万人增加，但低于预期的16万人。预期失业率如期下降0.1%，但工资增长高于预期。
Market-implied odds of a 50-basis-point rate cut in September surged to 61% as of 11:05 a.m. in New York, overtaking the 39% probability of a 25-basis-point cut, according to the CME Group's FedWatch data.
根据芝加哥商品交易所的FedWatch数据，纽约时间上午11:05，9月份降息50个基点的市场预期激增至61%，超过25个基点降息的39%概率。
September Rate-Cut Probabilities After August Jobs Data
8月份就业数据后的9月降息概率
| September Rate Cut | Now* | 1 day ago (Sept. 5, 2024) | 1 Week ago (Aug. 30, 2024) |
| 50 basis points (0.5%) | 61% | 40% | 30% |
| 25 basis points (0.25%) | 39% | 60% | 70% |
| 9月降息 | 现在* | 1天前（2024年9月5日） | 1周前（2024年8月30日） |
| 50个基点（0.5%） | 61% | 40% | 30% |
| 25个基点（0.25%） | 39% | 60% | 70% |
Traders poured into bonds amid growing expectations of declining interest rates, driving yields sharply lower across the Treasury curve.
在预期利率下降的预期不断增长下，交易员纷纷涌入债券市场，推动国债收益率急剧下降，遍及整个国债曲线。
The policy-sensitive two-year yield dropped over 10 basis points, reaching 3.59% at 11:15 a.m. in New York, its lowest level since March 2023.
受政策敏感的两年期美国国债收益率下降超过了10个基点，纽约时间上午11:15达到3.59%，创下2023年3月以来的最低点。
The 10-year Treasury yield fell 6 basis points to 3.67%, marking its lowest point since June 2023.
10年期美国国债收益率下降6个基点，至3.67%，创下2023年6月以来的最低点。
This movement has led to a positive slope in the Treasury yield curve from the 10-year onward, effectively ending the more than two-year period of yield curve inversion.
这一动态导致从10年期起的国债收益率曲线呈现正斜率，有效结束了持续两年多的债券收益率倒挂期。
Chart: US Yield Curve Normalizes, Ending 2-Year Inversion
图表：美国国债收益率曲线恢复正常，结束了两年的倒挂局面
Market Reactions
市场反应
Rate-cut expectations and falling Treasury yields triggered sharp moves across asset classes, with bonds rallying, the dollar weakening against the yen and equity markets sliding.
利率期货的期望下调和国债收益率下跌触发了各类资产的大幅波动，债券上涨，美元兑日元走弱，股票市场下滑。
"No sooner than the payroll print hit, the algorithms marched into high gear, pushing Treasury yields lower as the disappointing headline number, coupled with a series of downward revisions, suggested a more dire economic backdrop perhaps requiring a heavier dose of Fed medicine on Sept. 18," said Quincy Krosby, chief global strategist for LPL Financial.
LPL Financial的首席全球策略师Quincy Krosby表示：“就在工作报告公布之后，算法调高了速度，随着令人失望的头条数据以及一系列下调，预示着更加严峻的经济背景，可能需要在9月18日增加更多联储药物。”
Markets are wrestling with whether the August payroll data signals a labor market returning to pre-COVID norms or an economy losing critical momentum, Krosby said.
Krosby表示，市场正在犹豫8月份的工作报告数据是否意味着劳动力市场正在恢复至COVID前的正常水平，还是经济正在失去重要的动力。
- Treasury-related ETFs surged, with the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:TLT) rising 1.1% to $100.65, on pace for its highest close since late July 2023.
- The Japanese yen strengthened as well, with the Invesco CurrencyShares Japanese Yen Trust (NYSE:FXY) gaining over 1%, poised to close at its highest level since early January 2024.
- Volatility spiked, as the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) jumped 14% to 23.
- Wall Street flipped to the red, with the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY) dropping 1.5% on Friday, extending its weekly decline to 3.9%, on track for the worst weekly performance since March 2023.
- Tech stocks were hit hardest, with the Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ:QQQ) down 2.4%, pushing its weekly loss past 5%.
- Nvidia Corp. (NASDAQ:NVDA) tumbled 4%, extending its weekly loss to 14%, its worst performance in two years.
- 相关的国债ETF大涨，纳指100etf-invesco qqq trust上涨1.1%，至100.65美元，即将创下自2023年7月下旬以来的最高收盘价。
- 日元也有所走强，纽交所主题货币etf-日元etf-currencyshares上涨超过1%，即将收于2024年初以来的最高水平。
- 波动性激增，芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数 (VIX) 上涨14%，至23。
- 华尔街转跌，纽交所标普500etf-spdr s&p 500 etf trust周五下跌1.5%，本周跌幅扩大至3.9%，跟踪2023年3月以来的最差周表现。
- 科技股受到重创，纳指100etf-invesco qqq trust下跌2.4%，使其本周跌幅超过5%。
- Nvidia 公司 (纳斯达克:NVDA) 下跌了4%，将其本周的损失扩大到14%，这是两年来表现最差的一周。
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Photo via Shutterstock.
图片来自shutterstock。
