Shenzhen Grandland Group (SZSE:002482) Strong Profits May Be Masking Some Underlying Issues
Shenzhen Grandland Group (SZSE:002482) Strong Profits May Be Masking Some Underlying Issues
Shenzhen Grandland Group Co., Ltd.'s (SZSE:002482) healthy profit numbers didn't contain any surprises for investors. We believe that shareholders have noticed some concerning factors beyond the statutory profit numbers.
深圳广地集团有限公司's(SZSE:002482)健康的利润数字并没有让投资者感到意外。我们认为,股东们已经注意到法定利润数字之外的一些令人担忧的因素。
A Closer Look At Shenzhen Grandland Group's Earnings
仔细看看深圳广地集团的收益
As finance nerds would already know, the accrual ratio from cashflow is a key measure for assessing how well a company's free cash flow (FCF) matches its profit. In plain english, this ratio subtracts FCF from net profit, and divides that number by the company's average operating assets over that period. You could think of the accrual ratio from cashflow as the 'non-FCF profit ratio'.
正如金融迷已经知道的那样,现金流的应计比率是评估公司自由现金流(FCF)与利润匹配程度的关键指标。简而言之,该比率从净利润中减去FCF,然后将该数字除以该时期公司的平均运营资产。你可以将现金流的应计比率视为 “非FCF利润率”。
That means a negative accrual ratio is a good thing, because it shows that the company is bringing in more free cash flow than its profit would suggest. That is not intended to imply we should worry about a positive accrual ratio, but it's worth noting where the accrual ratio is rather high. To quote a 2014 paper by Lewellen and Resutek, "firms with higher accruals tend to be less profitable in the future".
这意味着负应计比率是一件好事,因为它表明该公司带来的自由现金流超出了其利润所暗示的范围。这并不意味着我们应该担心应计比率为正,但值得注意的是,应计比率相当高的地方。引用Lewellen和Resutek在2014年发表的一篇论文,“应计额较高的公司未来的利润往往会降低”。
Shenzhen Grandland Group has an accrual ratio of 2.50 for the year to June 2024. As a general rule, that bodes poorly for future profitability. And indeed, during the period the company didn't produce any free cash flow whatsoever. Over the last year it actually had negative free cash flow of CN¥308m, in contrast to the aforementioned profit of CN¥2.60b. We saw that FCF was CN¥5.1m a year ago though, so Shenzhen Grandland Group has at least been able to generate positive FCF in the past. Having said that, there is more to consider. We can look at how unusual items in the profit and loss statement impacted its accrual ratio, as well as explore how dilution is impacting shareholders negatively. One positive for Shenzhen Grandland Group shareholders is that it's accrual ratio was significantly better last year, providing reason to believe that it may return to stronger cash conversion in the future. Shareholders should look for improved cashflow relative to profit in the current year, if that is indeed the case.
截至2024年6月的一年中,深圳广地集团的应计比率为2.50。通常,这对未来的盈利能力来说是个坏兆头。事实上,在此期间,该公司没有产生任何自由现金流。去年,它的自由现金流实际上为负30800万元人民币,而上述利润为26元人民币。但是,我们看到一年前的FCF为510万元人民币,因此深圳广地集团过去至少能够产生正的FCF。话虽如此,还有更多需要考虑的地方。我们可以研究损益表中的不寻常项目如何影响其应计比率,并探讨稀释如何对股东产生负面影响。对深圳广地集团股东来说,一个积极因素是,去年的应计比率明显改善,这使人们有理由相信它将来可能会恢复更强劲的现金转换。如果确实如此,股东应寻求在本年度的现金流相对于利润的改善。
Note: we always recommend investors check balance sheet strength. Click here to be taken to our balance sheet analysis of Shenzhen Grandland Group.
注意:我们始终建议投资者检查资产负债表的实力。点击此处查看我们对深圳广地集团的资产负债表分析。
To understand the value of a company's earnings growth, it is imperative to consider any dilution of shareholders' interests. In fact, Shenzhen Grandland Group increased the number of shares on issue by 144% over the last twelve months by issuing new shares. That means its earnings are split among a greater number of shares. To talk about net income, without noticing earnings per share, is to be distracted by the big numbers while ignoring the smaller numbers that talk to per share value. You can see a chart of Shenzhen Grandland Group's EPS by clicking here.
要了解公司收益增长的价值,必须考虑削弱股东的利益。实际上,深圳广地集团通过发行新股,在过去十二个月中将已发行股票数量增加了144%。这意味着其收益将分配给更多的股票。在没有注意到每股收益的情况下谈论净收益,就是被大数字分散注意力,而忽略了代表每股价值的较小数字。您可以点击此处查看深圳广地集团的每股收益图表。
A Look At The Impact Of Shenzhen Grandland Group's Dilution On Its Earnings Per Share (EPS)
看看深圳广地集团的稀释对其每股收益(EPS)的影响
Three years ago, Shenzhen Grandland Group lost money. Zooming in to the last year, we still can't talk about growth rates coherently, since it made a loss last year. What we do know is that while it's great to see a profit over the last twelve months, that profit would have been better, on a per share basis, if the company hadn't needed to issue shares. So you can see that the dilution has had a fairly significant impact on shareholders.
三年前,深圳广地集团亏损。放眼去年,我们仍然无法连贯地谈论增长率,因为去年增长率出现亏损。我们所知道的是,尽管在过去的十二个月中看到盈利是件好事,但如果公司不需要发行股票,按每股计算,这种利润本来会更好。因此,你可以看到稀释对股东产生了相当重大的影响。
In the long term, if Shenzhen Grandland Group's earnings per share can increase, then the share price should too. But on the other hand, we'd be far less excited to learn profit (but not EPS) was improving. For the ordinary retail shareholder, EPS is a great measure to check your hypothetical "share" of the company's profit.
从长远来看,如果深圳广地集团的每股收益能够增加,那么股价也应该增加。但另一方面,得知利润(但不是每股收益)在改善,我们就不那么兴奋了。对于普通零售股东来说,每股收益是检查您假设的公司利润 “份额” 的好方法。
The Impact Of Unusual Items On Profit
不寻常物品对利润的影响
Unfortunately (in the short term) Shenzhen Grandland Group saw its profit reduced by unusual items worth CN¥888m. In the case where this was a non-cash charge it would have made it easier to have high cash conversion, so it's surprising that the accrual ratio tells a different story. While deductions due to unusual items are disappointing in the first instance, there is a silver lining. We looked at thousands of listed companies and found that unusual items are very often one-off in nature. And that's hardly a surprise given these line items are considered unusual. If Shenzhen Grandland Group doesn't see those unusual expenses repeat, then all else being equal we'd expect its profit to increase over the coming year.
不幸的是(在短期内),深圳广地集团的利润因价值88800万元人民币的不寻常物品而减少。如果这是一笔非现金费用,则可以更轻松地实现高现金转换,因此令人惊讶的是,应计比率讲述了一个不同的故事。尽管由于不寻常项目而产生的扣除首先令人失望,但有一线希望。我们调查了数千家上市公司,发现不寻常的物品本质上往往是一次性的。鉴于这些单列项目被认为不寻常,这并不奇怪。如果深圳广地集团不看到这些不寻常的支出重演,那么在其他条件相同的情况下,我们预计其利润将在来年增加。
Our Take On Shenzhen Grandland Group's Profit Performance
我们对深圳广地集团盈利表现的看法
Summing up, Shenzhen Grandland Group's unusual items suggest that its statutory earnings were temporarily depressed, and its accrual ratio indicates a lack of free cash flow relative to profit. And the dilution means that per-share results are weaker than the bottom line might imply. For the reasons mentioned above, we think that a perfunctory glance at Shenzhen Grandland Group's statutory profits might make it look better than it really is on an underlying level. In light of this, if you'd like to do more analysis on the company, it's vital to be informed of the risks involved. At Simply Wall St, we found 3 warning signs for Shenzhen Grandland Group and we think they deserve your attention.
总而言之,深圳广地集团的不寻常项目表明,其法定收益暂时受到抑制,其应计比率表明自由现金流相对利润不足。而稀释意味着每股业绩低于底线可能暗示的水平。出于上述原因,我们认为,敷衍地看一眼深圳广地集团的法定利润可能会使其看起来比实际水平要好。有鉴于此,如果你想对公司进行更多分析,了解所涉及的风险至关重要。在Simply Wall St,我们发现了深圳广地集团的3个警告标志,我们认为它们值得你关注。
Our examination of Shenzhen Grandland Group has focussed on certain factors that can make its earnings look better than they are. And, on that basis, we are somewhat skeptical. But there are plenty of other ways to inform your opinion of a company. For example, many people consider a high return on equity as an indication of favorable business economics, while others like to 'follow the money' and search out stocks that insiders are buying. So you may wish to see this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks with high insider ownership.
我们对深圳广地集团的审查侧重于某些可能使其收益看起来好于实际的因素。而且,在此基础上,我们有些怀疑。但是,还有很多其他方法可以让你对公司的看法。例如,许多人认为高股本回报率是有利的商业经济的标志,而另一些人则喜欢 “关注资金”,寻找内部人士正在买入的股票。因此,你可能希望看到这份拥有高股本回报率的公司的免费集合,或者这份内部所有权高的股票清单。
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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Simply Wall St的这篇文章本质上是笼统的。我们仅使用公正的方法根据历史数据和分析师的预测提供评论,我们的文章无意作为财务建议。它不构成买入或卖出任何股票的建议,也没有考虑到您的目标或财务状况。我们的目标是为您提供由基本数据驱动的长期重点分析。请注意,我们的分析可能不考虑最新的价格敏感型公司公告或定性材料。简而言之,华尔街没有持有任何上述股票的头寸。