Long-Dated Treasury ETFs Hit Yearly Highs With August CPI Data Ahead: More 'Good News On Inflation' Expected
Long-Dated Treasury ETFs Hit Yearly Highs With August CPI Data Ahead: More 'Good News On Inflation' Expected
Exchange-traded funds (ETFs) investing in long-term U.S. Treasury bonds surged to their highest levels of the year as investors gear up for another benign inflation report due Wednesday.
随着投资者为周三发布的另一份良性通胀报告做准备，投资美国长期国债的交易所交易基金（ETF）飙升至今年的最高水平。
The popular iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:TLT) ended Monday's session at $99.99 per share, its highest closing price since December 2023.
广受欢迎的iShares 20年期以上国债ETF（纳斯达克股票代码：TLT）周一收于每股99.99美元，为2023年12月以来的最高收盘价。
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics is scheduled to release the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for August on Wednesday at 8:30 a.m. ET. Economists are predicting a 0.2% month-over-month increase in both headline and core inflation, the latter of which excludes food and energy prices.
美国劳工统计局定于美国东部时间周三上午 8:30 发布8月份的消费者物价指数（CPI）。经济学家预测，总体通货膨胀率和核心通货膨胀率将同比增长0.2％，后者不包括食品和能源价格。
The Cleveland Fed's Inflation Nowcasting model projects similar results, with headline CPI at 2.56% year-over-year and core CPI at 3.21%.
克利夫兰联储的通货膨胀预报模型预测了类似的结果，总体消费者价格指数同比增长2.56％，核心消费者价格指数为3.21％。
Ed Yardeni, a well-known Wall Street veteran, said, "August's CPI should continue to show progress in moderating inflation," adding that the expected print would mark the lowest headline inflation since February 2021.
华尔街知名资深人士埃德·亚尔德尼表示：“8月份的消费者价格指数应继续在缓和通货膨胀方面取得进展”，并补充说，预期的数据将标志着自2021年2月以来的最低总体通货膨胀率。
In a similar tone, Bank of America analysts predict that headline inflation will decline by 0.3 percentage points to 2.6% year-over-year, while core inflation is expected to hold at 3.2%.
美国银行分析师以类似的基调预测，总体通货膨胀率将同比下降0.3个百分点至2.6％，而核心通货膨胀率预计将保持在3.2％。
"The August CPI report should continue the string of good news on inflation," the bank said in a recent note.
该银行在最近的一份报告中表示：“8月份的消费者价格指数报告应延续有关通货膨胀的一系列好消息。”
Key Data and Expectations Summary
关键数据和预期摘要
| Metric | August MoM (exp.) | August YoY (exp.) | July YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Headline CPI | +0.2% | 2.6% | 2.9% |
| Core CPI (ex-food and energy) | +0.2% | 3.2% | 3.2% |
| 指标 | 八月妈妈（exp.） | 8月同比（过期） | 7月同比 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 标题 CPI | +0.2% | 2.6% | 2.9% |
| 核心消费者价格指数（不包括食品和能源） | +0.2% | 3.2% | 3.2% |
Federal Reserve Rate Cut Speculation
美联储降息的猜测
Market participants are currently pricing in a 71% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut at the Federal Reserve's September meeting, and a 29% chance of a larger 50-basis-point cut.
市场参与者目前认为，在美联储9月会议上降息25个基点的可能性为71％，进一步降息50个基点的可能性为29％。
Recent comments from Fed Governor Christopher Waller and New York Fed President John Williams indicate that a 25bp rate cut remains the baseline expectation, but larger cuts could be on the table if economic data, particularly from the labor market, worsens.
美联储理事克里斯托弗·沃勒和纽约联储主席约翰·威廉姆斯最近的评论表明，25个基点的降息仍然是基准预期，但如果经济数据，特别是来自劳动力市场的数据恶化，可能会出现更大规模的降息。
Waller, speaking at the University of Notre Dame, noted that the Fed could act "quickly and forcefully" if needed, and signaled openness to "front-loading cuts."
沃勒在圣母大学发表讲话时指出，如果需要，美联储可以 “迅速而有力” 地采取行动，并表示对 “提前削减” 持开放态度。
Williams emphasized that the U.S. is "moving in the right direction" on inflation but warned, "we are not there yet on achieving 2% inflation."
威廉姆斯强调说，美国在通货膨胀方面 “正朝着正确的方向前进”，但他警告说：“我们还没有实现2％的通货膨胀。”
Williams also highlighted that the labor market remains strong, with the unemployment rate still "relatively low by historical standards."
威廉姆斯还强调，劳动力市场仍然强劲，失业率仍然 “按历史标准衡量相对较低”。
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