Domestic Retail Trade Expected To Grow 5% This Year: Kenanga
Domestic Retail Trade Expected To Grow 5% This Year: Kenanga
As of 7MCY24, Malaysia's distributive trade sales increased by +6.0% (2023: +7.7%), supported by +9.3%yoy rise in motor vehicle sales (2023: +12.3%) and continued increases by +6.3% (2023: +9.0%) in retail trade and +4.8%yoy (2023: +5.2%yoy) in wholesale trade.Malaysia's domestic spending increased sustainably as the overall distributive trade expanded faster at +6.7%yoy in Jul-24, growing for the 34th consecutive month since Oct-21. The continued expansion reflected a more encouraging sales performance for motor vehicles (+12.2%yoy) and wholesale trade (+5.5%yoy), and sustained rise in retail trade albeit at relatively moderate pace.
马来西亚国内支出持续增长，7月零售贸易总体扩张速度加快，同比增长6.7％，连续第34个月增长，自2021年10月以来。持续扩张反映了汽车销售表现更加鼓舞人心（同比增长12.2％）和批发贸易（同比增长5.5％），以及零售贸易的持续增长，尽管增速相对较为温和。
Looking at the seasonally-adjusted data, the stronger growth in volume of distributive trade by +5.3%yoy (Jun-24: +4.3%yoy) was particularly attributable to a rebound in motor vehicle sales (+8.7%yoy; Jun-24: – 0.6%yoy) and stronger growth in wholesale trade (+5.1%yoy; Jun-24: +3.1%yoy).
从季节调整数据来看，零售贸易成交量同比增长5.3％（2024年6月：同比增长4.3％），主要归因于汽车销售的复苏（同比增长8.7％；2024年6月：同比下降0.6％）和批发贸易的增长（同比增长5.1％；2024年6月：同比增长3.1％）。
Kenanga commenting on the latest figures released by the Department of Statistics said it continues to expect the positive labour market conditions and higher tourist arrivals, as well as the flexibility to tap retirement fund and cash assistance from the government, will underpin positive outlook for the distributive trade in the coming months. However, rising cost of living and pessimistic consumer confidence could affect future spending plans, which may be influenced by the government's plan to further rationalise subsidy allocations.
建业证券评论了统计局发布的最新数据，表示预计劳动力市场状况持续积极，旅游业的到访人数增加，以及可以利用退休基金和政府的现金救助的灵活性将支撑未来几个月零售贸易的积极前景。然而，生活成本上升和消费者信心的悲观可能会影响未来的支出计划，这可能受到政府进一步合理化补贴分配计划的影响。
As of 7MCY24, Malaysia's distributive trade sales increased by +6.0% (2023: +7.7%), supported by +9.3%yoy rise in motor vehicle sales (2023: +12.3%) and continued increases by +6.3% (2023: +9.0%) in retail trade and +4.8%yoy (2023: +5.2%yoy) in wholesale trade.
截至2024年7月，马来西亚零售贸易销售额增长6.0％（2023年：增长7.7％），受到汽车销售增长9.3％的支持（2023年：增长12.3％），零售贸易增长6.3％（2023年：增长9.0％）和批发贸易增长4.8％（2023年：增长5.2％）。
The house said it maintains its projection that the domestic retail trade will grow at +5.0% this year (2023: +9.0%yoy), reflecting sustained expansion in consumer spending backed by rising income and employment, recovery in tourist arrivals and policy measures such as higher allocation for cash assistance to B40. Meanwhile, the flexible access to some of retirement funds and timely shift to targeted subsidies may result in more encouraging spending outlook, which mitigated the inflationary effects from policy changes.
该机构表示，维持今年国内零售贸易增长5.0％的预测（2023年：同比增长9.0％），反映了消费者支出的持续扩张，支撑因收入和就业水平上升而增长，旅游到访量恢复以及政策措施，如为B40提供更高的现金救助。同时，灵活利用一些养老金并及时转向有针对性的补贴，可能会导致更为积极的支出前景，从而缓解政策变化带来的通胀影响。
Kenanga said it is also wary that consumers will continue to express pessimism and curtail spending plans as they are more focused to rising price levels.
建业证券表示，他们还担心消费者将继续表达悲观情绪，并削减支出计划，因为他们更关注物价水平的上涨。
