Malakoff Corporation has demonstrated a robust recovery in its earnings and cashflows, largely driven by improved plant performance and stable coal prices. Analysts have responded positively, with recommendations reflecting the company's promising outlook. Despite a 45% increase in its share price year-to-date, Malakoff's valuation remains modest, trading at just 4x the 2025F EV/EBITDA. The recommendation is to ADD, with a revised DCF-based target price of RM1.30 as cited by CGS International Stock Broking House.
The turnaround in Malakoff's quarterly core profit after a period of significant losses marks a substantial operational improvement. From an average loss of RM166 million between the first and third quarters of 2023, the company has shifted to a profit of RM72 million in the fourth quarter of 2023 through to the second quarter of 2024. This recovery is attributed to a more normalised coal price environment, improved plant performance, and higher capacity factors driven by increasing power demand, which has contributed to better revenues and margins.
The surge in power demand across Peninsular Malaysia, with growth rates of 3.2-9.6% year-on-year from the second quarter of 2023 to the second quarter of 2024, presents new opportunities for Malakoff. This growth surpasses the historical average CAGR of 1.2% observed from 2017 to 2022. The company is well-positioned to capitalise on this trend, with expectations of new capacity awards as existing plants face retirements and new investments in gas plants become necessary. Malakoff is already in advanced discussions regarding two new gas plants, potentially adding 2.8GW to its portfolio, with one planned for Kedah and another possibly in Port Dickson.
In response to these developments, CGS' forecasts for Malakoff's 2024F-2025F PAT have been raised by 15-17%, reflecting the improved performance and growth prospects. Additionally, the projections now incorporate the potential addition of a new 1.4GW gas plant and a new 84MW hydro plant in Kelantan, expected to start up in 2026. This adjustment has led to an increase in the DCF-based target price to RM1.30.
Despite the strong share price performance this year, Malakoff's valuations remain attractive, positioned at the lower end of its historical range with a 4.1x 2024F EV/EBITDA. This suggests that, even with improved earnings, the stock is still undervalued compared to historical averages. The company is anticipated to resume dividend payments as its free cash flow generation strengthens, following the normalisation of its earnings.
马拉科夫公司的收益和现金流出现了强劲的复苏,这在很大程度上是由电厂绩效的改善和煤炭价格稳定的推动的。分析师做出了积极回应,其建议反映了该公司的前景乐观。尽管今年迄今为止其股价上涨了45%,但马拉科夫的估值仍然不高,交易价格仅为2025财年电动汽车/息税折旧摊销前利润的4倍。该建议是ADD,CGS国际股票经纪公司援引的基于DCF的修订目标价为1.30令吉。
在经历了一段时间的重大亏损之后,Malakoff的季度核心利润有所好转,这标志着运营的实质性改善。该公司已从2023年第一季度至第三季度的平均亏损16600万令吉转向2023年第四季度至2024年第二季度的7200万令吉的盈利。这种复苏归因于煤炭价格环境更加正常化、电厂绩效改善以及电力需求增加推动的产能因素增加,这为收入和利润率的提高做出了贡献。
从2023年第二季度到2024年第二季度,马来西亚半岛的电力需求激增,同比增长3.2-9.6%,这为Malakoff带来了新的机遇。这一增长超过了2017年至2022年观察到的1.2%的历史平均复合年增长率。该公司完全有能力利用这一趋势,随着现有电厂面临退役以及需要对天然气发电厂进行新的投资,预计将获得新的产能奖励。Malakoff已经在就两座新的天然气发电厂进行深入讨论,这两座发电厂有可能增加2.8吉瓦的投资组合,其中一座计划在吉打,另一座可能位于迪克森港。
针对这些事态发展,CGS对Malakoff2024F-2025F PaT的预测上调了15-17%,这反映了业绩的改善和增长前景。此外,现在的预测包括在吉兰丹州可能增加一座新的1.4吉瓦天然气发电厂和一座新的84兆瓦的水力发电厂,预计将于2026年启动。这一调整导致基于DCF的目标价格上涨至1.30令吉。
尽管今年股价表现强劲,但Malakoff的估值仍然具有吸引力,处于历史区间的较低水平,为4.1倍的2024F电动汽车/息税折旧摊销前利润。这表明,即使收益有所提高,该股与历史平均水平相比仍被低估。在收益正常化之后,随着其自由现金流产生的增强,预计该公司将恢复股息支付。