Tenaga Nasional Berhad (TNB) is set for a significant boost in capital expenditure for its Transmission and Distribution (T&D) infrastructure, driven by a surge in power demand surpassing historical trends. The company's latest performance underscores the need for an increase in T&D investments under Regulatory Period 4 (RP4) to address the growing electricity requirements. CGS International Stock Broking House have reiterated an ADD recommendation for TNB, with a revised Sum-of-Parts (SOP) based target price of RM19.10.
Power demand in Malaysia has notably accelerated, with quarterly growth rates reaching between 3.2% and 9.6% year-on-year from 2Q23 to 2Q24. This marks a sharp increase from the historical growth rate of 1.2% over the previous five years. This robust growth is propelled by higher consumption in the commercial and residential sectors. The existing electricity supply agreements, including those with data centres, suggest an ongoing annual growth rate of 3.5% to 5% over the next several years. In light of these trends, the budgeted average annual T&D capex of RM7.5 billion under RP3 (2022-2024), aimed at supporting a 1.8% annual demand growth, now appears inadequate. Consequently, there is a strong case for increased T&D capex under RP4 (2025-2027), alongside an estimated RM35 billion investment required for energy transition.
GenCo's financial performance has also shown marked improvement. After six consecutive quarters of losses, the company reported a profit after tax (PAT) of RM399 million in 2Q24. This turnaround is attributed to operational enhancements and cost efficiencies. Analysts have adjusted their profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 upwards by 3% to 9%, reflecting this improved performance. The target price for TNB has been raised to RM19.10, driven by an increase in long-term growth expectations from 1.5% to 2% due to the optimistic power demand outlook.
Despite a 47% rise in TNB's share price year-to-date, outperforming the KLCI by 29%, the stock remains undervalued. TNB's shares are currently trading at an adjusted 2025 EV/EBITDA of 7.3x, compared to the regional power sector average of 9.1x to 13.2x. This discount is deemed excessive given TNB's strong earnings profile, with over 70% of its income derived from its regulated T&D business and the positive impact of the National Energy Transition Roadmap (NETR). Foreign shareholding in TNB has increased slightly but remains below previous highs, indicating room for further investment.
受超越历史趋势的电力需求激增的推动，Tenaga Nasional Berhad（TNB）将大幅增加其输电和配电（T＆D）基础设施的资本支出。该公司的最新业绩突显了在监管期4（RP4）下增加输电投资的必要性，以满足不断增长的电力需求。CGS国际股票经纪公司重申了对TnB的ADD建议，修订后的基于零件总和（SOP）的目标价格为19.10令吉。
马来西亚的电力需求显著加速，从23年第二季度到24年第二季度，季度同比增长率达到3.2％至9.6％。这标志着与过去五年1.2％的历史增长率相比急剧上升。这种强劲的增长是由商业和住宅部门消费的增加推动的。现有的电力供应协议，包括数据中心的协议，表明未来几年将持续保持3.5％至5％的年增长率。鉴于这些趋势，RP3（2022-2024）下旨在支持1.8％的年需求增长的预算平均年度研发资本支出为75令吉，现在似乎是不够的。因此，根据RP4（2025-2027），有充分的理由增加研发资本支出，同时估计需要350令吉的能源转型投资。
GenCo的财务业绩也显示出显著改善。在连续六个季度的亏损之后，该公司报告了24年第二季度的税后利润（PAT）为39900万令吉。这种转变归因于运营的增强和成本效率。分析师已将2025年和2026年的利润预测上调了3％至9％，这反映了业绩的改善。由于乐观的电力需求前景，长期增长预期从1.5％上调至2％，TnB的目标价格已上调至19.10令吉。
尽管今年迄今为止，TNB的股价上涨了47％，比KLCI高出29％，但该股的估值仍被低估。TNB股票目前的交易价格调整后的2025年电动汽车/息税折旧摊销前利润为7.3倍，而该地区电力行业的平均水平为9.1倍至13.2倍。鉴于TNB强劲的收益状况，其70％以上的收入来自其受监管的T＆D业务以及国家能源转型路线图（NETR）的积极影响，这种折扣被认为是过高的。外国在TnB的持股量略有增加，但仍低于先前的高点，这表明还有进一步投资的空间。
