We Think That There Are More Issues For GemPharmatech (SHSE:688046) Than Just Sluggish Earnings
We Think That There Are More Issues For GemPharmatech (SHSE:688046) Than Just Sluggish Earnings
GemPharmatech Co., Ltd.'s (SHSE:688046) stock showed strength, with investors undeterred by its weak earnings report. Sometimes, shareholders are willing to ignore soft numbers with the hope that they will improve, but our analysis suggests this is unlikely for GemPharmatech.
GempharmaTech 有限公司's(上海证券交易所代码:688046)的股票表现强劲,投资者并未被其疲软的收益报告所吓倒。有时,股东愿意忽视软数字,希望情况有所改善,但我们的分析表明,对于GempharmaTech而言,这不太可能。
Zooming In On GemPharmatech's Earnings
放大GempharmaTech的收益
As finance nerds would already know, the accrual ratio from cashflow is a key measure for assessing how well a company's free cash flow (FCF) matches its profit. To get the accrual ratio we first subtract FCF from profit for a period, and then divide that number by the average operating assets for the period. The ratio shows us how much a company's profit exceeds its FCF.
正如金融迷已经知道的那样,现金流的应计比率是评估公司自由现金流(FCF)与利润匹配程度的关键指标。为了获得应计比率,我们首先从一段时期的利润中减去FCF,然后将该数字除以该期间的平均运营资产。该比率向我们显示了公司的利润超过其FCF的程度。
Therefore, it's actually considered a good thing when a company has a negative accrual ratio, but a bad thing if its accrual ratio is positive. That is not intended to imply we should worry about a positive accrual ratio, but it's worth noting where the accrual ratio is rather high. To quote a 2014 paper by Lewellen and Resutek, "firms with higher accruals tend to be less profitable in the future".
因此,当公司的应计比率为负时,这实际上被认为是一件好事,但如果其应计比率为正,则是一件坏事。这并不意味着我们应该担心应计比率为正,但值得注意的是,应计比率相当高的地方。引用Lewellen和Resutek在2014年发表的一篇论文,“应计额较高的公司将来的利润往往会降低”。
For the year to June 2024, GemPharmatech had an accrual ratio of 0.32. We can therefore deduce that its free cash flow fell well short of covering its statutory profit, suggesting we might want to think twice before putting a lot of weight on the latter. In the last twelve months it actually had negative free cash flow, with an outflow of CN¥142m despite its profit of CN¥157.7m, mentioned above. Coming off the back of negative free cash flow last year, we imagine some shareholders might wonder if its cash burn of CN¥142m, this year, indicates high risk. However, that's not all there is to consider. We can see that unusual items have impacted its statutory profit, and therefore the accrual ratio.
在截至2024年6月的一年中,GemPharmaTech的应计比率为0.32。因此,我们可以推断出其自由现金流远不足以支付其法定利润,这表明在对后者进行大量考虑之前,我们可能需要三思而后行。在过去的十二个月中,它的自由现金流实际上为负数,尽管如上所述,其利润为15770万元人民币,但仍流出14200万元人民币。在去年自由现金流为负的背景下,我们想象一些股东可能会怀疑其今年14200万元的现金消耗是否表明存在高风险。但是,这还不是要考虑的全部。我们可以看到,不寻常的项目影响了其法定利润,从而影响了应计比率。
That might leave you wondering what analysts are forecasting in terms of future profitability. Luckily, you can click here to see an interactive graph depicting future profitability, based on their estimates.
这可能会让你想知道分析师对未来盈利能力的预测。幸运的是,您可以单击此处查看根据他们的估计描绘未来盈利能力的交互式图表。
The Impact Of Unusual Items On Profit
不寻常物品对利润的影响
The fact that the company had unusual items boosting profit by CN¥14m, in the last year, probably goes some way to explain why its accrual ratio was so weak. We can't deny that higher profits generally leave us optimistic, but we'd prefer it if the profit were to be sustainable. When we analysed the vast majority of listed companies worldwide, we found that significant unusual items are often not repeated. And that's as you'd expect, given these boosts are described as 'unusual'. Assuming those unusual items don't show up again in the current year, we'd thus expect profit to be weaker next year (in the absence of business growth, that is).
该公司去年有不寻常的项目将利润提高了1400万元人民币,这一事实可能在某种程度上可以解释其应计比率为何如此疲软。我们不能否认更高的利润通常会让我们感到乐观,但如果利润是可持续的,我们更愿意这样做。当我们分析全球绝大多数上市公司时,我们发现重大不寻常的事项往往不会重演。这正如你所预料的那样,因为这些增强被描述为 “不寻常”。假设这些不寻常的项目在本年度不会再次出现,因此我们预计明年的利润将疲软(也就是说,在业务没有增长的情况下)。
Our Take On GemPharmatech's Profit Performance
我们对GempharmaTech利润表现的看法
Summing up, GemPharmatech received a nice boost to profit from unusual items, but could not match its paper profit with free cash flow. For the reasons mentioned above, we think that a perfunctory glance at GemPharmatech's statutory profits might make it look better than it really is on an underlying level. So while earnings quality is important, it's equally important to consider the risks facing GemPharmatech at this point in time. For example, we've found that GemPharmatech has 2 warning signs (1 is significant!) that deserve your attention before going any further with your analysis.
总而言之,GempharmaTech从不寻常的物品中获得了不错的利润提振,但其纸面利润无法与自由现金流相提并论。出于上述原因,我们认为,敷衍地看一眼GempharmaTech的法定利润可能会使其看起来比实际水平要好。因此,尽管收益质量很重要,但考虑GempharmaTech目前面临的风险同样重要。例如,我们发现 GempharmaTech 有 2 个警告信号(1 个很重要!)在进行进一步分析之前,这值得你注意。
In this article we've looked at a number of factors that can impair the utility of profit numbers, and we've come away cautious. But there are plenty of other ways to inform your opinion of a company. Some people consider a high return on equity to be a good sign of a quality business. While it might take a little research on your behalf, you may find this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks with significant insider holdings to be useful.
在这篇文章中,我们研究了许多可能损害利润数字效用的因素,我们采取了谨慎的态度。但是,还有很多其他方法可以让你对公司的看法。有些人认为高股本回报率是优质业务的好兆头。虽然可能需要你进行一些研究,但你可能会发现这份免费收集的拥有高股本回报率的公司,或者这份拥有大量内幕持股的股票清单很有用。
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Simply Wall St的这篇文章本质上是笼统的。我们仅使用公正的方法根据历史数据和分析师的预测提供评论,我们的文章无意作为财务建议。它不构成买入或卖出任何股票的建议,也没有考虑到您的目标或财务状况。我们的目标是为您提供由基本数据驱动的长期重点分析。请注意,我们的分析可能不考虑最新的价格敏感型公司公告或定性材料。简而言之,华尔街没有持有任何上述股票的头寸。