Dollar, Treasury Yields Rise As Small Caps Fall: August Inflation Crushes Odds Of 50-Point Fed Rate Cut
Dollar, Treasury Yields Rise As Small Caps Fall: August Inflation Crushes Odds Of 50-Point Fed Rate Cut
Traders now increasingly anticipate a more measured 25-basis-point cut, as sticky core inflation—particularly in services—remains a key factor under close watch by the Fed.U.S. inflation in August hit its lowest annual rate since February 2021 at 2.5%, falling from 2.9% in July and below the expected 2.6%, yet the underlying story tells a more complicated tale.
美国8月份的通货膨胀率触及2021年2月以来的最低年率，为2.5％，低于7月份的2.9％，低于预期的2.6％，但基本情况却讲述了一个更为复杂的故事。
Stripping out volatile food and energy prices, core inflation pressures remain stubborn at 3.2% as shelter costs surged at their fastest monthly pace since January 2024, fueling gains in the dollar and sending Treasury yields climbing.
除去波动的食品和能源价格，核心通胀压力仍然居高不下，为3.2％，原因是住房成本以2024年1月以来最快的月度速度飙升，推动了美元的上涨，使美国国债收益率攀升。
Expectations for a hefty 50-basis-point rate cut at the Sept. 18 FOMC meeting plummeted to just 15%, down from 34% a day earlier, as per CME Group's FedWatch tool.
芝加哥商品交易所集团的联邦观察工具显示，9月18日联邦公开市场委员会会议上大幅降息50个基点的预期从前一天的34％跌至仅15％。
Traders now increasingly anticipate a more measured 25-basis-point cut, as sticky core inflation—particularly in services—remains a key factor under close watch by the Fed.
由于粘性核心通货膨胀——尤其是服务业——仍然是美联储密切关注的关键因素，交易员现在越来越多地预计将下调25个基点。
Energy goods and services indices saw notable monthly drops, helping to ease overall price pressures. Gasoline prices fell 0.6% month-over-month in August after holding steady in July, while electricity declined 0.7% and utility bills for piped gas services dropped 1.9%.
能源商品和服务指数月度显著下降，这有助于缓解整体价格压力。汽油价格在7月份保持稳定之后，8月份同比下降了0.6％，而电力下降了0.7％，管道天然气服务的公用事业账单下降了1.9％。
Market Reactions
市场反应
The mixed August inflation report and the corresponding drop in investor expectation for a larger rate cut by the Federal Reserve at the September meeting triggered the following reactions in major assets:
8月份涨跌互现的通胀报告以及投资者对美联储在9月会议上进一步降息的预期相应下降，引发了主要资产的以下反应：
- The S&P 500, as tracked by the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY), opened Wednesday's session 0.2% lower.
- Tech stocks, followed by the Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1 (NASDAQ:QQQ) were flat.
- Small caps, as tracked by the iShares Russell 2000 ETF (NYSE:IWM), sunk 1%.
- The Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:XLK) was the top-performing S&P 500 sector, up 0.5%.
- The Real Estate Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:XLRE) was the main laggard, down 1.6%.
- The Invesco DB USD Index Bullish Fund ETF (NYSE:UUP) rose 0.1%.
- The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:TLT) eased 0.1% as Treasury yields rose.
- Gold prices, monitored through the SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:GLD), fell by 0.4%.
- Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) fell 2%.
- 根据SPDR标准普尔500指数ETF信托基金（纽约证券交易所代码：SPY）追踪的标准普尔500指数周三开盘下跌0.2％。
- 科技股，其次是景顺QQ信托基金，第一系列（纳斯达克股票代码：QQQ）持平。
- 根据iShares Russell 2000 ETF（纽约证券交易所代码：IWM）追踪的小盘股下跌了1％。
- 科技精选板块SPDR基金（纽约证券交易所代码：XLK）是标准普尔500指数表现最好的板块，上涨0.5％。
- 房地产精选板块SPDR基金（纽约证券交易所代码：XLRE）是主要落后者，下跌1.6％。
- 景顺Db美元指数看涨基金ETF（纽约证券交易所代码：UUP）上涨0.1％。
- 随着美国国债收益率的上升，iShares 20年期以上国债ETF（纳斯达克股票代码：TLT）下跌了0.1％。
- 通过SPDR黄金信托基金（纽约证券交易所代码：GLD）监管的黄金价格下跌了0.4％。
- 比特币（加密货币：BTC）下跌了2％。
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