Electoral Implications For Leveraged Tech ETF
Electoral Implications For Leveraged Tech ETF
Plenty of sectors are in electoral crosshairs this year, technology chief among them. The S&P 500's largest sector weight is a leadership group again in 2020, but there are implications for it come Election Day.
今年，许多行业都成为了选举的靶子，科技行业的领头羊就是其中之一。标准普尔500指数(S&P500)最大的板块权重在2020年再次成为领导层，但随着选举日的到来，这一点将产生影响。
What Happened
怎么了
Those implications make the Direxion Daily Technology Bull 3X Shares (NYSE:TECL) a credible post-election idea. TECL attempts to deliver triple the daily returns of the Technology Select Sector Index, a benchmark that's essentially an ode to Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) and Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) as that duo combine for more than 44% of the index's weight.
As has been widely documented, some titans of tech are drawing the ire of politicians on both sides of the aisle, but the conventional wisdom is that a victory by former Vice President Joe Biden would take some of the heat off the sector.
正如广泛记录的那样，一些科技巨头正在招致两党政客的愤怒，但传统观点认为前副总统乔·拜登(Joe Biden)的胜利将缓解该行业的一些压力。
Why It's Important
为什么它很重要
That will probably prove to be true if Biden wins, but there are reasons to consider TECL, including intra-tech rotations.
如果拜登获胜，这可能会被证明是真的，但有理由考虑Tecl，包括技术内部的轮换。
“If you are long-duration technology – SaaS, payment processors, FAANG – you do not believe rotation is sustainable. Evidence of that view is best represented in the 8% bounce in the NASDAQ-100 Index (NDX) since the week of September 25,” writes Rareview Macro founder Neil Azous. “The opposing view is that cyclical technology, value names, and GARP stocks should benefit from a more balanced portfolio into the Presidential Election, especially if Biden wins. He is more likely to break up the monopoly names.”
“如果你是长期科技公司--SaaS、支付处理商、FAANG--你就不会相信轮换是可持续的。纳斯达克100指数(NASDAQ-100 Index，NDX)自9月25日当周以来反弹了8%，这最能证明这一观点。Rareview Macro创始人尼尔·阿祖斯写道。“相反的观点是，周期性技术、价值名称和GARP股票应该会从总统选举中更平衡的投资组合中受益，特别是如果拜登获胜的话。他更有可能打破垄断企业的名称。“
Assuming Biden pursues the breaking up monopolies angle, TECL's bearish counterpart, the Direxion Daily Technology Bear 3X Shares (NYSE:TECS), could come into focus. However, that thesis probably doesn't account for Sen. Kamala Harris (D-CA), a friend of Silicon Valley, being Biden's running mate.
假设拜登追求打破垄断的角度，Tecl的悲观同行Direxion Daily Technology Bear 3X股票纽约证券交易所代码：TECS)可能会成为焦点。然而，这一论断可能没有考虑到硅谷的朋友、参议员卡马拉·哈里斯(Kamala Harris)是拜登的竞选伙伴。
What's Next
下一步是什么？
Monopoly breaking is hard and even if President Trump scores the upset, there are no guarantees he'll have the political capital to wage anything more than verbal war against tech giants.
打破垄断是很困难的，即使特朗普总统赢得了颠覆，也不能保证他会有政治资本对科技巨头发动口水战以外的任何事情。
That is to say even if he does pull victory from the jaws of defeat, TECL should still shape up nicely after Election Day. Plus, there are more technical reasons that could be the case.
这就是说，即使他真的从失败中脱颖而出，泰克也应该在选举日之后表现得很好。此外，还有更多的技术原因可能是这样的。
“Regarding the old generals – Oracle, Cisco, Intel, etc. – many of the charts are constructive,” said Azous.
“关于老将军们--甲骨文、思科、英特尔等--很多图表都很有建设性，”阿祖斯说。
Those names and other mature tech fare reside in TECL's underlying index.
这些名字和其他成熟的科技股都在Tecl的基础指数中。