Evergy, MDU Set For Growth But Black Hills Faces EPS Headwinds, Says BofA Analyst
Evergy, MDU Set For Growth But Black Hills Faces EPS Headwinds, Says BofA Analyst
BofA Securities analyst Ross Fowler reinstated coverage on four US utilities in the Great Plains.
美银证券分析师罗斯·福勒恢复了对大平原四家美国公用事业公司的报道。
The analyst reaffirmed the Buy rating at Evergy, Inc. (NASDAQ:EVRG) and MDU Resources Group, Inc. (NYSE:MDU).
该分析师重申了Evergy, Inc.（纳斯达克股票代码：EVRG）和MDU Resources Group, Inc.（纽约证券交易所代码：MDU）的买入评级。
Meanwhile, Fowler reiterated the Neutral rating on OGE Energy Corp (NYSE:OGE) and Underperform rating on Black Hills Corporation (NYSE:BKH).
同时，福勒重申了对OGE能源公司（纽约证券交易所代码：OGE）的中性评级和黑山公司（纽约证券交易所代码：BKH）的中性评级。
EVRG: The analyst kept the price target at $66. The analyst says that despite trading at a 10% discount compared to peers on a 2026E P/E basis, the improving Kansas regulatory environment, which supports higher rate base growth, appears undervalued.
EVRG：分析师将目标股价维持在66美元。这位分析师表示，尽管按2026年市盈率计算，与同行相比有10％的折扣，但支持更高基准增长的堪萨斯州监管环境的改善似乎被低估了。
The analyst estimates FY24, FY25 and FY26E EPS at $3.86, $4.09 and $4.30, respectively, all above consensus.
该分析师估计，24财年、25财年和 FY26E 每股收益分别为3.86美元、4.09美元和4.30美元，均高于市场预期。
Fowler writes that consensus EPS estimates for FY26 and FY27 remain largely unchanged despite the benefits from House Bill 2527.
福勒写道，尽管受益于众议院第2527号法案，但对26财年和27财年的共识每股收益估计基本保持不变。
MDU: The analyst reiterated the price target of $28. Fowler believes the current 15% discount to the electric utility peer group is unjustified, considering MDU's ongoing transition to a pure-play regulated utility and pipeline operator, along with its projected 6-8% EPS growth rate through the planning period.
MDU：分析师重申了28美元的目标股价。福勒认为，考虑到MDU正在向纯粹的受监管公用事业和管道运营商过渡，而且预计在整个规划期内其每股收益增长率为6-8％，因此目前向电力公用事业同行群体提供的15％的折扣是不合理的。
Although the company's multi-jurisdictional presence may lead to some delays in recovery, the analyst expects sustained support for earned ROEs at the electric utility, driven by a strong pipeline of data center customer connections in areas experiencing transmission congestion.
尽管该公司的跨司法管辖区业务可能会导致复苏延迟，但分析师预计，在传输拥堵地区的强大数据中心客户连接渠道的推动下，电力公司获得的投资回报率将持续得到支持。
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OGE: The analyst reiterated a $40 price target. While the analyst values OGE's execution and growth potential from data center and crypto-mining load, the challenging regulatory environment in Oklahoma and significant capital investments needed for resource adequacy present risks.
OGE：分析师重申了40美元的目标股价。尽管分析师从数据中心和加密采矿负荷中看重OGE的执行和增长潜力，但俄克拉荷马州充满挑战的监管环境和资源充足所需的大量资本投资存在风险。
Fowler expects EPS estimates of $2.14, $2.28, and $2.43 for FY24, FY25, and FY26, respectively, in line with consensus estimates.
福勒预计，24财年、25财年和26财年的每股收益估计分别为2.14美元、2.28美元和2.43美元，与市场普遍预期一致。
BKH: The analyst reaffirmed a $59 price target. The analyst says that BKH's electric utility operations are poised for growth with rising residential, commercial, and data center load, which currently contributes 5% to EPS and is expected to exceed 10% by 2028.
BKH：分析师重申了59美元的目标股价。该分析师表示，随着住宅、商业和数据中心负荷的增加，BKH的电力公用事业业务有望增长，目前占每股收益的5％，预计到2028年将超过10％。
Fowler expects rate base expansion opportunities in South Dakota and Colorado to support a 7%+ CAGR. However, $1.6 billion in debt maturities from 2023 to 2028, with a 3.03% average interest rate, could create a ~$0.50 EPS headwind, exacerbating risks given BKH's already low 4-6% target EPS CAGR, adds the analyst.
福勒预计，南达科他州和科罗拉多州的利率基础扩张机会将支持7％以上的复合年增长率。但是，分析师补充说，从2023年到2028年，16亿美元的债务到期日，平均利率为3.03％，每股收益可能会造成约0.50美元的不利影响，鉴于BKH的目标每股收益复合年增长率已经很低，这将加剧风险。
Fowler anticipates EPS estimates of $3.88, $4.13, and $4.35 for FY24, FY25, and FY26, below the consensus estimates of $3.92, $4.14, and $4.40, respectively.
福勒预计，24财年、25财年和26财年的每股收益估计为3.88美元、4.13美元和4.35美元，分别低于市场普遍预期的3.92美元、4.14美元和4.40美元。
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