We Think Guoguang Electric (SZSE:002045) Can Manage Its Debt With Ease
We Think Guoguang Electric (SZSE:002045) Can Manage Its Debt With Ease
Legendary fund manager Li Lu (who Charlie Munger backed) once said, 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' So it seems the smart money knows that debt - which is usually involved in bankruptcies - is a very important factor, when you assess how risky a company is. Importantly, Guoguang Electric Company Limited (SZSE:002045) does carry debt. But the more important question is: how much risk is that debt creating?
传奇基金经理李录(得到了查理·芒格的支持)曾经说过:“最大的投资风险不是价格的波动性,而是你是否会遭受资本的永久损失。”因此,明智的投资者深知债务是评估一家公司风险的非常重要的因素,因为债务通常涉及破产。重要的是,国光电器股份有限公司(SZSE:002045)确实有债务。但更重要的问题是:这些债务带来了多少风险?
When Is Debt Dangerous?
债务何时有危险?
Debt assists a business until the business has trouble paying it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. If things get really bad, the lenders can take control of the business. However, a more common (but still painful) scenario is that it has to raise new equity capital at a low price, thus permanently diluting shareholders. Having said that, the most common situation is where a company manages its debt reasonably well - and to its own advantage. When we think about a company's use of debt, we first look at cash and debt together.
债务在企业有新资本或自由现金流时有所帮助。如果事情变得非常糟糕,放贷人可以接管企业。但是,常见的(但仍然痛苦的)情况是企业必须以低价筹集新的股本资本,从而永久稀释股东权益。话虽如此,最常见的情况是公司合理管理其债务并从中受益。当我们考虑公司使用债务时,我们首先考虑现金和债务的总和。
What Is Guoguang Electric's Net Debt?
国光电器的净债务是多少?
As you can see below, at the end of June 2024, Guoguang Electric had CN¥2.55b of debt, up from CN¥1.32b a year ago. Click the image for more detail. But on the other hand it also has CN¥3.06b in cash, leading to a CN¥511.7m net cash position.
正如您在下面的图片中所看到的,截至2024年6月,国光电器的债务为25.5亿人民币,较一年前的13.2亿人民币增加。点击图片查看更多详情。但另一方面,它也有30.6亿人民币的现金,因此净现金为51170万人民币。
How Healthy Is Guoguang Electric's Balance Sheet?
国光电器的资产负债表有多健康?
The latest balance sheet data shows that Guoguang Electric had liabilities of CN¥4.41b due within a year, and liabilities of CN¥197.7m falling due after that. Offsetting this, it had CN¥3.06b in cash and CN¥1.69b in receivables that were due within 12 months. So it can boast CN¥143.0m more liquid assets than total liabilities.
最新的资产负债表数据显示,国光电器一年内到期的负债为44.1亿人民币,之后到期的负债为1.977亿元人民币。抵消这些负债的是,它有30.6亿现金和12个月内到期的16.9亿应收款项。所以它拥有1.43亿更多的流动资产比总负债。
This short term liquidity is a sign that Guoguang Electric could probably pay off its debt with ease, as its balance sheet is far from stretched. Simply put, the fact that Guoguang Electric has more cash than debt is arguably a good indication that it can manage its debt safely.
这种短期流动性表明,国光电器可能很容易偿还其债务,因为其资产负债表远非紧张。简而言之,国光电器拥有比债务更多的现金可能是其安全管理债务的良好指标。
On top of that, Guoguang Electric grew its EBIT by 52% over the last twelve months, and that growth will make it easier to handle its debt. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine Guoguang Electric's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.
此外,国光电器在过去十二个月内的EBIt增长了52%,这种增长将使其更容易应对债务。在分析债务水平时,资产负债表是明显的起点。但最终决定国光电器未来是否能保持健康的资产负债表的,更多取决于未来收益。所以,如果你想了解专业人士的看法,你可能会觉得对分析师利润预测的这份免费报告很感兴趣。
But our final consideration is also important, because a company cannot pay debt with paper profits; it needs cold hard cash. While Guoguang Electric has net cash on its balance sheet, it's still worth taking a look at its ability to convert earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) to free cash flow, to help us understand how quickly it is building (or eroding) that cash balance. Over the last two years, Guoguang Electric actually produced more free cash flow than EBIT. That sort of strong cash generation warms our hearts like a puppy in a bumblebee suit.
但我们最后的考虑也很重要,因为公司不能用纸面利润偿还债务;它需要冷硬的现金。虽然国光电器在资产负债表上有净现金,但仍值得一看它将利润前利息和税前利润(EBIT)转化为自由现金流的能力,以帮助我们了解其现金余额是如何快速增长(或减少)的。在过去的两年里,国光电器实际上产生的自由现金流比EBIt多。这种强劲的现金生成方式让我们的心情像穿着蜜蜂服的小狗一样温暖。
Summing Up
总之
While it is always sensible to investigate a company's debt, in this case Guoguang Electric has CN¥511.7m in net cash and a decent-looking balance sheet. The cherry on top was that in converted 153% of that EBIT to free cash flow, bringing in CN¥61m. So is Guoguang Electric's debt a risk? It doesn't seem so to us. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. We've identified 3 warning signs with Guoguang Electric , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.
尽管调查公司的负债是明智之举,但在这种情况下,国光电器的净现金为51170万人民币,资产负债表看起来不错。最好的是,它将153%的EBIt转化为了自由现金流,带来了6100万人民币。所以国光电器的债务是风险吗?在我们看来似乎并不是。资产负债表显然是分析债务时需要关注的领域。但最终,每家公司都可能存在资产负债表之外存在的风险。我们已经确认国光电器存在3个警示信号,了解它们应该成为您投资过程的一部分。
If, after all that, you're more interested in a fast growing company with a rock-solid balance sheet, then check out our list of net cash growth stocks without delay.
如果在所有这些之后,您更感兴趣的是具有坚实资产负债表的快速增长公司,那么不要拖延,查看我们的净现金增长股票列表。
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