$Tesla (TSLA.US)$ could have an exciting October to remember with third-quarter earnings, third-quarter deliveries and its Robotaxi Day.

An analyst said investors should focus on deliveries before robotaxis.

The Tesla Analyst: Canaccord Genuity analyst George Gianarikas has a Buy rating with a $254 price target on Tesla.

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The Analyst Takeaways: Tesla's third-quarter delivery figures will come before its Robotaxi Day and should be the current focus from investors, Gianarikas said in an investor note titled "business before pleasure."

"Robotaxi. It's going to be a big day — bigger than the Catalina wine mixer. But before that, we have some business to attend to — the 3Q24 delivery announcement," Gianarikas said.

The analyst is lowering third-quarter delivery estimates after looking at global data.

"Despite modestly adjusting our delivery projections downward, Tesla's performance has remained relatively healthy."

Tesla's margins could also be lower in the third quarter with the company using "aggressive packages" to help with demand, the analyst added.

Gianarikas' third-quarter delivery estimate is 469,200. That's down from a previous estimate of 480,000. The analyst's estimate is higher than a consensus estimate of 458,000 deliveries in the quarter, according to the report.

"We see the continued momentum in China and attractive financing options being offered around the world as key drivers to our estimates," he added.

The analyst is leaving fourth-quarter delivery estimates of 552,000 vehicles in place until the third-quarter results are announced. "Two factors drive this forecast, he says. First, since 2019, Tesla has averaged a "20.4% q/q gain between 3Q and 4Q." Second, new vehicles could launch by the end of the year.

For the full year, the analyst sees Tesla delivering 1.85 million vehicles, down from a previous estimate of 1.86 million.

For the third-quarter financial results, the analyst lowers non-GAAP earnings per share estimates from 98 cents to 75 cents per share.

What's Next: Tesla reported second-quarter deliveries on July 2 and first-quarter on deliveries on April 2, putting third-quarter figures on pace for October 2.

The company expects to report third-quarter financial results in October, likely after the Robotaxi Day on Oct. 11. This all sets up for a huge October for the electric vehicle giant.

TSLA Price Action: Tesla stock trades at $228.97 versus a 52-week trading range of $138.80 to $278.98. Tesla stock is down 8% year-to-date in 2024.

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