'91% Chance Local Top Is In,' Says Trader Ahead Of Pivotal Rate Cut Decision
'91% Chance Local Top Is In,' Says Trader Ahead Of Pivotal Rate Cut Decision
Polymarket data shows a 53% probability of a 50 basis points cut and a 45% chance of a 25 basis points cut.A potential crypto market reversal ahead of the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on Wednesday may be on the cards, according to a crypto trader.
一位加密货币交易员表示，在即将于周三举行的联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）会议之前，加密货币市场可能会出现逆转。
What Happened: Pseudonymous trader Astronomer Zero puts a 91% chance on the market reversing after the meeting.
发生了什么：化名交易员Astronomener Zero认为会议结束后市场逆转的可能性为91％。
According to their analysis, FOMC meetings have consistently triggered market reversals, often marking significant high timeframe moves in the crypto market.
根据他们的分析，联邦公开市场委员会会议不断引发市场逆转，这通常标志着加密市场在较高的时间框架内走势。
Polymarket data shows a 53% probability of a 50 basis points cut and a 45% chance of a 25 basis points cut.
保利市场的数据显示，下调50个基点的可能性为53％，下调25个基点的可能性为45％。
However, the trader cautions that the current market compression and tight trading range make precise predictions more challenging.
但是，该交易员警告说，当前的市场压缩和狭窄的交易区间使精确的预测更具挑战性。
Despite the potential short-term downturn, the analyst maintains a bullish long-term outlook. He references a separate analysis indicating a high-confidence bottom around the low $50,000 range for Bitcoin. This long-term perspective aligns with the overall thesis of a ranging market scenario within macro highs and lows.
尽管可能出现短期衰退，但分析师仍保持看涨的长期前景。他引用了另一项分析，该分析表明，比特币的信心在50,000美元的低位区间附近触底。这种长期视角符合宏观高点和低点范围内的波动市场情景的总体论点。
"We have been calling the bottom with high confidence (100% certainty over 16 data points over the entire history of $BTC) around the low 50's," Astronomer Zero points out.
Astronomer Zero指出：“在50年代的低点附近，我们一直满怀信心地触底（在BTC的整个历史中，超过16个数据点的确定性为100％）。”
The trader's strategy involves taking profits on recent upward movements and preparing to "reload spot back lower" following the expected FOMC-induced reversal. While local price sweeps above recent weekend highs are possible, an overall downward move is anticipated.
交易者的策略包括在最近的上行走势中获利，并准备在预期的联邦公开市场委员会引发的逆转之后 “将现货重新拉低回低位”。尽管当地价格有可能突破近期周末的高点，但预计总体上会出现下行走势。
Also Read: 'What Changed?' — Federal Reserve May Take A Bigger 50 Basis Points Rate Cut Bite Next Week, Market Odds Imply
另请阅读：“发生了什么变化？”— 市场赔率暗示，美联储下周可能会进一步降息50个基点
Importantly, Astronomer Zero does not foresee a dramatic price collapse, stating, "So this analysis suggest that we get a local move down, yet not expecting a full collapse into the low 40's or even the 30's as many are still expecting."
重要的是，Astronomer Zero并未预见到价格会急剧下跌，他说：“因此，该分析表明，我们将局部下跌，但预计不会像许多人仍然预期的那样全面跌至40年代甚至30年代的低点。”
This prediction aligns with the broader market view, which anticipates a prolonged ranging period for Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC), likely lasting until the fourth quarter of the year.
这一预测与更广泛的市场观点一致，后者预计比特币（加密货币：BTC）将持续很长一段时间，可能持续到今年第四季度。
As the crypto community awaits the FOMC meeting's outcome, market participants are advised to consider both short-term volatility and long-term trends in their trading and investment strategies.
在加密社区等待联邦公开市场委员会会议结果之际，建议市场参与者在交易和投资策略中同时考虑短期波动性和长期趋势。
What's Next: The influence of Bitcoin as an institutional asset class is expected to be thoroughly explored at Benzinga's upcoming Future of Digital Assets event on Nov. 19.
下一步是什么：Benzinga即将于11月19日举行的数字资产未来活动预计将全面探讨比特币作为机构资产类别的影响力。