Contrarian Trader Bets $200K To Win $6.5M On This Unlikely Fed Rate Cut Scenario
Contrarian Trader Bets $200K To Win $6.5M On This Unlikely Fed Rate Cut Scenario
The size of the cut is more contentious.A Polymarket trader, going by the alias BasedBoi, has placed a $200,000 bet that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged in its much-anticipated Sep. 18 meeting.
一位名为BasedBoi的Polymarket交易员下了一笔20万美元的赌注，即美联储将在备受期待的9月18日会议上保持利率不变。
What Happened: The trader down over $100,000 on his bet, which, if successful, would yield a $6.5 million payout.
这位交易员输掉了超过10万元的赌注，如果成功的话，将会获得650万美元的奖金。
The Federal Reserve's decision has kept market participants on edge, with a rate cut seen as practically assured. The CME Fedwatch tool shows a 100% probability for a rate cut, while the corresponding Polymarket markets price a rate cut at 98.5%.
联邦储备决定让市场参与者感到紧张，降息被视为几乎是确定的。根据CME的Fedwatch工具显示，降息的概率为100%，而对应的Polymarket市场则将降息的价格定为98.5%。
The size of the cut is more contentious.
降息规模的大小是更有争议的。
Polymarket data shows a 43% chance the Fed will reduce interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) and a 56% chance is attributed to a more aggressive 50 bps reduction. Over $12 million have been traded on these two options alone, with the entire market racking up a trading volume of over $45 million.
Polymarket的数据显示，美联储将降息25个基点的概率为43%，而将降息50个基点的概率为56%。仅这两个选项的交易总额已超过1200万美元，整个市场的交易量超过4500万美元。
The odds diverge from Fedwatch, where a 50bps cut is a 67:33 favorite.
这些赔率与Fedwatch的预测相左，Fedwatch中50个基点的降息概率为67%，而33%的人认为降息幅度将不到50个基点。
Also Read: Donald Trump To Visit Springfield, Ohio 'Soon'? Not So Fast, Polymarket Traders Say
此外阅读：特朗普是否会很快到访俄亥俄州斯普林菲尔德？Polymarket交易员表示不会。
Why It Matters: This massive bet is set against a backdrop of heightened expectations as investors eagerly await the Fed's next move.
为什么这很重要：这笔巨额赌注发生在投资者对美联储下一步行动充满期待的背景下。
Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) remains flat at $59,150, while Ethereum (CRYPTO: ETH) is slightly up at $2,312, reflecting broader market caution as uncertainty looms.
比特币（CRYPTO: BTC）持平于$59,150，而以太坊（CRYPTO: ETH）微涨至$2,312，反映出市场的谨慎情绪随着不确定性的出现而增加。
Experts expects some form of rate cut, with a nearly even split between a 25 bps and 50 bps reduction.
专家们预计会进行某种程度的降息，而25个基点和50个基点的降幅几乎平分。
This makes BasedBoi's maverick bet even more of an outlier, risking a significant portion of capital on the belief that the Fed will hold rates steady.
这使得BasedBoi的非传统投注成为了一个更加落单的行动，冒着将大量资本押注在美联储将会维持利率稳定的信念上的风险。
This tension between market expectations and individual bets will be a key point of discussion at Benzinga's Future of Digital Assets event on Nov. 19, where industry leaders will explore how macroeconomic factors like interest rate cuts are influencing the broader digital assets and crypto markets.
市场预期与个人投注之间的这种紧张关系将是Benzinga的数字资产未来活动的讨论重点，该活动将于11月19日举行，行业领袖将探讨利率降低等宏观经济因素的影响如何影响更广泛的数字资产和加密市场。