As Fed Gears Up For Cuts, One Hedge Funder Is Focused On A Bigger Catalyst: Japan's Central Bank
As Fed Gears Up For Cuts, One Hedge Funder Is Focused On A Bigger Catalyst: Japan's Central Bank
"Fed should have cut [rates] in August," Hayes says. Instead, Japan's central bank hiked and the Fed didn't. As a result, "it created a liquidity mismatch that caused an abrupt selloff" in the Magnificent Seven stocks.Whether the Federal Reserve will implement a 25-basis-point reduction or a 50-basis-point cut, is top of mind ahead of Wednesday's meeting.
关于美联储将采取25个基点的降息还是50个基点的降息，在本周三的会议之前成为关注重点。
But there's an "even bigger question" to answer, Thomas Hayes of Great Hill Capital tells Benzinga.
但是大山资本的Thomas Hayes告诉财经新闻网，还有一个“更大的问题”需要回答。
What will Japan's central bank decide at its meeting on Friday? Recall how Japan's rate hikes created volatility, particularly in tech stocks.
日本央行周五的会议上将做出什么决定？回想一下日本的加息曾经引发过市场波动，尤其是科技股。
"Fed should have cut [rates] in August," Hayes says. Instead, Japan's central bank hiked and the Fed didn't. As a result, "it created a liquidity mismatch that caused an abrupt selloff" in the Magnificent Seven stocks.
“美联储本应该在8月份削减利率，”Hayes说。相反，日本央行升息了，而美联储没有。结果，“这导致了一个流动性不匹配，引发了科技七巨头的突然抛售。”
If the Bank of Japan (BoJ) meets Friday and hikes again while the Fed only cuts 25 basis points, more turbulence could arise, Hayes predicts.
Things should be alright if the Fed cuts 50 basis points and the BoJ hikes 25 basis points, he says. Likewise, if the BoJ keeps rates unchanged and the Fed cuts 25 basis points.
The Fed's Decision: Of the last three 50 basis-point cuts, March 2020 "worked great," Hayes recalls. The cuts from September 2007 and January 2001 each has a "bad outcome."
Hayes预测，如果日本央行周五再次加息，而美联储仅降息25个基点，可能会出现更多的动荡。
他说，如果美联储削减50个基点，而日本央行加息25个基点，情况应该会好转。同样，如果日本央行保持利率不变，而美联储削减25个基点。
Hayes回忆道，在过去的三次50个基点的降息中，2020年3月的效果“非常好”。2007年9月和2001年1月的降息则造成了“不好的结果”。
Fed Fund Futures suggest a 65% chance of a 50 basis-points cut, though Hayes isn't sure.
根据联邦基金期货的数据显示，有65%的概率会有50个基点的降息，尽管Hayes并不确定。
A cut that size could suggest the Fed is falling behind. It might also give the appearance of political motivation, which the Fed will most likely try to avoid. With the effective federal funds rate (EFFR) at 5.33%, more than 230 basis points above inflation, Hayes believes monetary policy is already too restrictive.
这么大幅度的降息可能意味着美联储正在落后。这也可能给人一种政治动机的表象，而美联储很可能会试图避免。由于有效联邦基金利率（EFFR）高达5.33%，比通胀高了230个基点以上，海耶斯认为货币政策已经过于紧缩。
Hayes expects the Fed will go with a 25 basis points cut paired with dovish commentary, suggesting further cuts in November and December. While the market is pricing in 100-125 basis points of cuts by year-end, Hayes is in the 75-100 basis points of reductions camp.
海耶斯预计美联储将进行25个基点的降息，并配以温和的评论，暗示11月和12月可能进一步降息。尽管市场预计年底会有100-125个基点的降息，但海耶斯认为降息幅度会在75-100个基点之间。
Hayes also points to stronger-than-expected growth, with Q3 GDPNow estimates at 2.5% and 15% earnings per share (EPS) growth forecast for 2024.
"Hard to have a recession with GDP growing over 2%," Hayes said.
海耶斯还指出，经济增长超出预期，第三季度GDPNow估计为2.5%，预计2024年每股收益（EPS）将增长15%。
海耶斯说，“经济增长超过2%，很难出现衰退。”
Hayes is not repositioning ahead of the rate cuts. However, other major funds made significant moves in the second quarter ahead of the rate-cut cycle.
According to HedgeFollow:
海耶斯在降息周期开始之前并没有调整仓位。然而，在降息周期开始之前，其他大型基金进行了重大调整。
根据HedgeFollow：
- Berkshire Hathaway sold more Apple Inc (NASDAQ:AAPL) shares
- State Street bought Nvidia Corp (NASDAQ:NVDA) shares
- Coatue picked up Nvidia and Dell Technologies (NYSE:DELL)
- Two Sigma bought CME Group Inc (NASDAQ:CME) shares.
- Berkshire Hathaway出售了更多苹果股份（纳斯达克：AAPL）
- 道富银行购买了Nvidia股份（纳斯达克：NVDA）
- Coatue收购了Nvidia和戴尔科技（纽交所：DELL）的股票。
- Two Sigma购买了CME集团股份（纳斯达克：cme）。
Now Read: S&P 500 Briefly Hits Record High Just Ahead Of Fed Rate Cut, Extends 7-Day Winning Streak
现在阅读：标普500指数在美联储降息之前短暂创下新高，延续了为期7天的获胜纪录。
Image: Shutterstock
图片：shutterstock
