Malaysian Banks Poised For Boost As Liquidity Improves
Malaysian Banks Poised For Boost As Liquidity Improves
Despite the positive outlook, net interest margins across most banks have yet to return to pre-pandemic levels, with variances ranging from 1bp at ABMB to 21bps at RHB. Public Bank stands out as an exception, with NIMs already restored to pre-pandemic levels. If NIMs were to recover further, there could be notable earnings upgrades in FY25/26, with BIMB and RHB potentially seeing the largest revisions, at 14% and 16%, respectively. Public Bank and ABMB, having less room for NIM recovery, are expected to see minimal impact, with the latter possibly experiencing only a 1% earnings change.The Malaysian banking sector continues to show signs of improvement, with system liquidity on the rise, as indicated by trends in CASA deposits, the 3-month KLIBOR, and liquidity coverage ratios (LCRs) at Islamic banks. Maybank Stock Broking House maintain a POSITIVE outlook for the sector, with BUY recommendations on AMMB, CIMB, Public Bank (PBK), RHB, Hong Leong Bank (HLBK), and Hong Leong Financial Group (HLFG). The key factor driving this outlook is the potential for net interest margins (NIMs) to surprise on the upside, potentially leading to earnings upgrades of up to 16%.
马来西亚银行业继续显示出改善迹象，系统流动性上升，如CASA存款、三个月的KLIBOR和伊斯兰银行的流动性覆盖率显示的趋势所示。马来亚银行证券经纪公司对该板块保持积极态度，对AMMb、CIMb、Public Bank（PBK）、RHb、鹏利银行（HLBK）和鹏利金融集团（HLFG）提出买入建议。推动这一展望的关键因素是净息差（NIMs）有望带来正面的意外，可能导致盈利预期上调高达16%。
Pressure on NIMs has eased this year after contracting in 2023. Banks have been guiding for NIMs to fluctuate by +/-5bps from 2023 levels, with an expectation of stability across the board. On average, NIMs for banks covered are anticipated to remain stable year-on-year at around 2.07%. Projections for 2025 foresee a conservative 2bps recovery, which could potentially pave the way for further earnings improvements, particularly if NIMs return to pre-pandemic levels.
NIMs的压力在今年有所缓解，2023年收缩后，并且银行已经指导从2023年的水平上下波动5个基点，预计整个行业将保持稳定。覆盖的银行的NIMs平均预期同比持平在2.07%左右。2025年的预测预示着保守估计的2个基点回升，这可能为进一步的盈利改善铺平道路，特别是如果NIMs恢复到疫情前的水平。
System liquidity has been bolstered by improvements in key indicators. CASA deposits, which had contracted year-on-year from January to September 2023, saw a recovery, with a 6.4% year-on-year increase in July 2024. In addition, the 3-month KLIBOR, which had risen to 3.77% in December 2023 due to liquidity constraints, has since eased to hover around 3.50%. Liquidity coverage ratios at Islamic banks, which had dipped to 127% in October 2022, have rebounded to 153%, bringing them back in line with the 150% ratio observed in conventional commercial banks as of July 2024.
关键指标的改善提振了系统流动性。CASA存款在2023年1月至9月同比下降后，于2024年7月同比增长了6.4%。此外，由于流动性受限，三个月的KLIBOR在2023年12月上升至3.77%，目前已降至3.50%左右。伊斯兰银行的流动性覆盖率在2022年10月下降至127%，已反弹至153%，使其与2024年7月的传统商业银行的150%比例保持一致。
Despite the positive outlook, net interest margins across most banks have yet to return to pre-pandemic levels, with variances ranging from 1bp at ABMB to 21bps at RHB. Public Bank stands out as an exception, with NIMs already restored to pre-pandemic levels. If NIMs were to recover further, there could be notable earnings upgrades in FY25/26, with BIMB and RHB potentially seeing the largest revisions, at 14% and 16%, respectively. Public Bank and ABMB, having less room for NIM recovery, are expected to see minimal impact, with the latter possibly experiencing only a 1% earnings change.
尽管展望积极，但大多数银行的净息差尚未恢复到疫情前的水平，从ABMb的1个基点到RHb的210亿。公共银行是一个例外，净息差已经恢复到疫情前的水平。如果净息差进一步恢复，FY25/26可能会出现显著的盈利上调，其中BIMb和RHb可能看到最大的修正，分别为14%和16%。预计公共银行和ABMb的影响较小，后者可能仅会经历1%的盈利变动。
Source: Maybank
Title: System liquidity is improving
来源：马来亚银行
标题：系统流动性正在改善
