We Think Samsonite International (HKG:1910) Can Stay On Top Of Its Debt
We Think Samsonite International (HKG:1910) Can Stay On Top Of Its Debt
The external fund manager backed by Berkshire Hathaway's Charlie Munger, Li Lu, makes no bones about it when he says 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' It's only natural to consider a company's balance sheet when you examine how risky it is, since debt is often involved when a business collapses. We note that Samsonite International S.A. (HKG:1910) does have debt on its balance sheet. But the real question is whether this debt is making the company risky.
伯克希尔哈撒韦(Berkshire Hathaway)旗下的外部基金经理李录(Li Lu)坦言,最大的投资风险不在于价格的波动性,而在于是否会遭受永久性的资本损失。当你评估公司的风险时,自然要考虑负债表,因为在一个企业崩溃时通常会涉及债务。我们注意到新秀丽国际有限公司(HKG:1910)的负债表上确实有债务。但真正的问题是,这些债务是否使公司变得有风险。
When Is Debt Dangerous?
债务何时有危险?
Debt is a tool to help businesses grow, but if a business is incapable of paying off its lenders, then it exists at their mercy. Ultimately, if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt, shareholders could walk away with nothing. However, a more usual (but still expensive) situation is where a company must dilute shareholders at a cheap share price simply to get debt under control. Of course, plenty of companies use debt to fund growth, without any negative consequences. When we examine debt levels, we first consider both cash and debt levels, together.
债务是帮助企业成长的一种工具,但如果企业无力偿还贷款,那么它就存在于贷款方的掌握之中。最终,如果公司不能履行偿还债务的法律义务,股东可能一分不剩。然而,更常见的(但仍然是昂贵的)情况是,公司必须以低廉的股票价格稀释股东,以便控制债务。当然,许多公司使用债务筹资增长,没有任何负面后果。在我们考虑债务水平时,我们首先考虑现金和债务水平两者同时考虑。
What Is Samsonite International's Net Debt?
新秀丽国际的净债务是多少?
As you can see below, Samsonite International had US$1.81b of debt at June 2024, down from US$1.92b a year prior. However, it does have US$815.5m in cash offsetting this, leading to net debt of about US$998.5m.
如下所示,截至2024年6月,新秀丽国际的债务为1.81亿美元,较去年同期的1.92亿美元有所降低。然而,公司有8155万美元的现金可抵消这一债务,从而导致净债务约为9985万美元。
How Strong Is Samsonite International's Balance Sheet?
新秀丽国际的资产负债表有多强?
Zooming in on the latest balance sheet data, we can see that Samsonite International had liabilities of US$1.18b due within 12 months and liabilities of US$2.45b due beyond that. On the other hand, it had cash of US$815.5m and US$346.1m worth of receivables due within a year. So its liabilities outweigh the sum of its cash and (near-term) receivables by US$2.47b.
仔细观察最新的资产负债表数据,我们可以看到新秀丽国际有118亿美元的负债在12个月内到期,245亿美元的负债超过了该期限。另一方面,它手头有8.155亿美元的现金和3.461亿美元的应收账款,一年内到期。因此,它的负债超过了现金和(短期)应收账款的总和,超过了24.7亿美元。
This deficit is considerable relative to its market capitalization of US$3.36b, so it does suggest shareholders should keep an eye on Samsonite International's use of debt. Should its lenders demand that it shore up the balance sheet, shareholders would likely face severe dilution.
相对于其336亿美元的市值,这个赤字相当可观,因此确实表明股东应密切关注新秀丽国际的债务使用情况。如果其债权人要求其增强资产负债表,股东很可能面临严重的摊薄。
In order to size up a company's debt relative to its earnings, we calculate its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) divided by its interest expense (its interest cover). Thus we consider debt relative to earnings both with and without depreciation and amortization expenses.
为了对公司的债务相对于其收益进行规模适应,我们计算其净债务与利息、税、折旧和摊销前收益(EBITDA)之比及其税前收益(EBIT)与利息支出之比(利息保障倍数)。因此,我们既考虑到不包括折旧和摊销费用在内的收益,又包括折旧和摊销费用的收益相对于债务。
Looking at its net debt to EBITDA of 1.4 and interest cover of 5.8 times, it seems to us that Samsonite International is probably using debt in a pretty reasonable way. But the interest payments are certainly sufficient to have us thinking about how affordable its debt is. If Samsonite International can keep growing EBIT at last year's rate of 18% over the last year, then it will find its debt load easier to manage. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if Samsonite International can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.
看看它的净债务与EBITDA的比率为1.4倍,利息盖率为5.8倍,我们认为新秀丽国际可能是在相当合理的方式使用债务。但利息支付肯定足以让我们思考其债务的可负担性。如果新秀丽国际能够保持去年18%的EBIT增长速度,那么它将更容易管理其债务负担。毫无疑问,我们可以从资产负债表中了解最多关于债务。但最终,业务的未来盈利能力将决定新秀丽国际是否能够随着时间加强其资产负债表。因此,如果您想看专业人士的看法,您可能会觉得分析师盈利预测的免费报告很有趣。
But our final consideration is also important, because a company cannot pay debt with paper profits; it needs cold hard cash. So we clearly need to look at whether that EBIT is leading to corresponding free cash flow. Over the most recent three years, Samsonite International recorded free cash flow worth 74% of its EBIT, which is around normal, given free cash flow excludes interest and tax. This free cash flow puts the company in a good position to pay down debt, when appropriate.
但我们的最后考虑也很重要,因为一家公司无法用纸面利润偿还债务;它需要现金。因此,我们显然需要看看这个EBIT是否带来相应的自由现金流。在最近的三年中,新秀丽国际录得的自由现金流价值相当于其EBIT的74%,这在正常范围内,考虑到自由现金流不包括利息和税收。这种自由现金流使公司有能力在适当时偿还债务。
Our View
我们的观点
When it comes to the balance sheet, the standout positive for Samsonite International was the fact that it seems able to convert EBIT to free cash flow confidently. However, our other observations weren't so heartening. For example, its level of total liabilities makes us a little nervous about its debt. Considering this range of data points, we think Samsonite International is in a good position to manage its debt levels. Having said that, the load is sufficiently heavy that we would recommend any shareholders keep a close eye on it. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. Be aware that Samsonite International is showing 2 warning signs in our investment analysis , you should know about...
谈到资产负债表时,新秀丽国际的一个显著亮点是其似乎能够自信地将税息前利润转化为自由现金流。然而,我们的其他观察结果并不那么令人振奋。例如,其总负债水平让我们对其债务感到有些担忧。综合考虑这些数据点,我们认为新秀丽国际有能力管理其债务水平。话虽如此,负担相当沉重,我们建议任何股东密切关注。在分析债务水平时,资产负债表是一个显而易见的起点。但最终,每家公司都可能存在超越资产负债表之外的风险。请注意,在我们的投资分析中,新秀丽国际显示出2个警告信号,您应该了解这些...
If you're interested in investing in businesses that can grow profits without the burden of debt, then check out this free list of growing businesses that have net cash on the balance sheet.
如果您有兴趣投资能够在不负债的情况下增长利润的企业,请查看这份免费列表,其中列出了在资产负债表上拥有净现金的成长型企业。
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