share_log

Positive Earnings Growth Hasn't Been Enough to Get ZTO Express (Cayman) (NYSE:ZTO) Shareholders a Favorable Return Over the Last Three Years

Positive Earnings Growth Hasn't Been Enough to Get ZTO Express (Cayman) (NYSE:ZTO) Shareholders a Favorable Return Over the Last Three Years

近三年来,正收益增长并不足以让中通快递(开曼)(纽交所:ZTO)股东获得良好回报
Simply Wall St ·  09/20 07:26

ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. (NYSE:ZTO) shareholders should be happy to see the share price up 15% in the last month. But that doesn't help the fact that the three year return is less impressive. After all, the share price is down 28% in the last three years, significantly under-performing the market.

中通快递(开曼)有限公司(纽约证券交易所代码:ZTO)的股东应该很高兴看到上个月股价上涨了15%。但这无助于三年回报率不那么令人印象深刻的事实。毕竟,股价在过去三年中下跌了28%,表现大大低于市场。

Although the past week has been more reassuring for shareholders, they're still in the red over the last three years, so let's see if the underlying business has been responsible for the decline.

尽管过去一周令股东更加放心,但在过去三年中,他们仍处于亏损状态,所以让我们看看基础业务是否是造成下降的原因。

To paraphrase Benjamin Graham: Over the short term the market is a voting machine, but over the long term it's a weighing machine. By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time.

用本杰明·格雷厄姆的话来说:从短期来看,市场是一台投票机器,但从长远来看,它是一台称重机。通过比较每股收益(EPS)和一段时间内的股价变化,我们可以了解投资者对公司的态度是如何随着时间的推移而变化的。

During the unfortunate three years of share price decline, ZTO Express (Cayman) actually saw its earnings per share (EPS) improve by 26% per year. Given the share price reaction, one might suspect that EPS is not a good guide to the business performance during the period (perhaps due to a one-off loss or gain). Alternatively, growth expectations may have been unreasonable in the past.

在不幸的三年股价下跌中,中通快递(开曼)的每股收益(EPS)实际上每年增长26%。鉴于股价的反应,人们可能会怀疑每股收益并不能很好地指导该期间的业务表现(可能是由于一次性的亏损或收益)。或者,过去的增长预期可能不合理。

It's worth taking a look at other metrics, because the EPS growth doesn't seem to match with the falling share price.

值得一看其他指标,因为每股收益的增长似乎与股价的下跌不符。

We note that, in three years, revenue has actually grown at a 11% annual rate, so that doesn't seem to be a reason to sell shares. It's probably worth investigating ZTO Express (Cayman) further; while we may be missing something on this analysis, there might also be an opportunity.

我们注意到,在三年内,收入实际上以11%的年增长率增长,因此这似乎不是出售股票的理由。中通快递(开曼)可能值得进一步研究;虽然我们可能遗漏了一些分析内容,但也可能有机会。

You can see how earnings and revenue have changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).

您可以在下图中看到收入和收入随时间推移而发生的变化(点击图表查看确切值)。

big
NYSE:ZTO Earnings and Revenue Growth September 20th 2024
纽约证券交易所:ZTO收益和收入增长 2024年9月20日

ZTO Express (Cayman) is a well known stock, with plenty of analyst coverage, suggesting some visibility into future growth. Given we have quite a good number of analyst forecasts, it might be well worth checking out this free chart depicting consensus estimates.

中通快递(开曼)是一只知名股票,分析师报道丰富,这表明未来增长有一定的可见性。鉴于我们有相当多的分析师预测,这张描绘共识估计的免费图表可能值得一看。

What About Dividends?

分红呢?

When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. As it happens, ZTO Express (Cayman)'s TSR for the last 3 years was -23%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!

在考虑投资回报时,重要的是要考虑股东总回报(TSR)和股价回报之间的差异。尽管股价回报率仅反映股价的变化,但股东总回报率包括股息的价值(假设已进行再投资)以及任何折扣融资或分拆的收益。可以说,股东总回报率更全面地描述了股票产生的回报。碰巧的是,中通快递(开曼)过去三年的股东总回报率为-23%,超过了前面提到的股价回报率。这在很大程度上是其股息支付的结果!

A Different Perspective

不同的视角

Investors in ZTO Express (Cayman) had a tough year, with a total loss of 1.9% (including dividends), against a market gain of about 33%. Even the share prices of good stocks drop sometimes, but we want to see improvements in the fundamental metrics of a business, before getting too interested. On the bright side, long term shareholders have made money, with a gain of 3% per year over half a decade. It could be that the recent sell-off is an opportunity, so it may be worth checking the fundamental data for signs of a long term growth trend. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand ZTO Express (Cayman) better, we need to consider many other factors. For example, we've discovered 1 warning sign for ZTO Express (Cayman) that you should be aware of before investing here.

中通快递(开曼)的投资者经历了艰难的一年,总亏损为1.9%(包括股息),而市场涨幅约为33%。即使是优质股票的股价有时也会下跌,但我们希望在过于感兴趣之前看到企业基本指标的改善。好的一面是,长期股东赚了钱,在过去的五年中,每年增长3%。最近的抛售可能是一个机会,因此可能值得查看基本面数据以寻找长期增长趋势的迹象。长期跟踪股价表现总是很有意思的。但是,为了更好地了解中通快递(开曼),我们需要考虑许多其他因素。例如,我们发现了中通快递(开曼)的1个警告信号,在这里投资之前,您应该注意这一点。

We will like ZTO Express (Cayman) better if we see some big insider buys. While we wait, check out this free list of undervalued stocks (mostly small caps) with considerable, recent, insider buying.

如果我们看到一些大规模的内幕收购,我们会更喜欢中通快递(开曼)。在我们等待的同时,请查看这份被低估的股票(主要是小盘股)的免费清单,这些股票最近有大量的内幕买盘。

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.

请注意,本文引用的市场回报反映了目前在美国交易所交易的股票的市场加权平均回报。

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

对这篇文章有反馈吗?对内容感到担忧吗?请直接联系我们。或者,也可以发送电子邮件至编辑团队 (at) simplywallst.com。
Simply Wall St的这篇文章本质上是笼统的。我们仅使用公正的方法根据历史数据和分析师的预测提供评论,我们的文章无意作为财务建议。它不构成买入或卖出任何股票的建议,也没有考虑到您的目标或财务状况。我们的目标是为您提供由基本数据驱动的长期重点分析。请注意,我们的分析可能不考虑最新的价格敏感型公司公告或定性材料。简而言之,华尔街没有持有任何上述股票的头寸。

声明:本内容仅用作提供资讯及教育之目的,不构成对任何特定投资或投资策略的推荐或认可。 更多信息
    抢沙发