Shopify (TSX:SHOP) stock has struggled to keep pace with the broader market in 2024. Despite inching up by nearly 18% so far in the third quarter, Shopify stock is up only 3.5% year to date, lagging behind the TSX Composite's 14% increase. With this, the stock currently trades at $106.76 per share with a market cap of $137.8 billion. Investors seem cautious as the Ottawa-based e-commerce platform giant tries to navigate an uncertain macroeconomic environment amid high inflationary pressures.

So, where could Shopify stock be in five years? In this article, we'll take a closer look at Shopify's financial growth trends, future growth prospects, and related fundamental factors to explore whether its stock could bounce back anytime soon and regain its position as one of the top-performing tech stocks.

Shopify's financial growth trends

In the last couple of years, global economic challenges have affected e-commerce sectors as businesses across the world continue to slash their spending on digital transformation efforts. Despite these challenges, Shopify has continued to report impressive financial results.

The Canadian e-commerce platform company posted a record annual revenue of US$7.1 billion in 2023, up 26.1% YoY (year over year) with the help of a 20% increase in its gross merchandise volume and a 58% jump in gross payment volume. Improved efficiencies in Shopify's subscription solutions and pricing adjustments to standard plans also helped boost margins. As a result, it delivered a record adjusted annual earnings of US$0.73 per share.

Shopify continued to maintain its positive financial growth momentum in the first half of 2024, reporting a 22% YoY increase in its sales for these six months to US$3.9 billion. More importantly, its adjusted earnings for these two quarters combined soared by 207% YoY to US$0.46 per share.

Why Shopify stock's growth prospects look strong

Considering these robust financial growth trends, it's possible that the stock market has not yet fully recognized Shopify's recent achievements. While it's true that Shopify may face some challenges due to ongoing macroeconomic uncertainties and growing competition in the near term, several key fundamental factors still brighten its long-term growth prospects. First, Shopify's continued expansion into international markets and its growing ecosystem of merchant services should help it capture a larger share of the e-commerce market.

Also, the company's focus on integrating artificial intelligence (AI) into its platform could improve operational efficiency and drive further growth. For example, in June 2024, Shopify unveiled its Summer '24 Edition, an ambitious update that included more than 150 enhancements, which will help it unify and simplify the commerce experience on its platform. A major focus of this update was the integration of advanced AI across various aspects of the Shopify platform.

Where will Shopify stock be in five years?

While Shopify has strong growth prospects, its long-term stock performance will still depend on how well it navigates external risks, especially global economic challenges. Although recent interest rate cuts in the United States and Canada could provide some relief and boost consumer spending, investors should continue to closely monitor Shopify's ability to manage growing competition and maintain its market leadership.