Hunan Development Group (SZSE:000722) Shareholders Notch a 7.4% CAGR Over 5 Years, yet Earnings Have Been Shrinking
Hunan Development Group (SZSE:000722) Shareholders Notch a 7.4% CAGR Over 5 Years, yet Earnings Have Been Shrinking
When we invest, we're generally looking for stocks that outperform the market average. Buying under-rated businesses is one path to excess returns. For example, long term Hunan Development Group Co., Ltd. (SZSE:000722) shareholders have enjoyed a 39% share price rise over the last half decade, well in excess of the market decline of around 2.6% (not including dividends).
当我们投资时,通常会寻找表现优于市场平均水平的股票。购买被低估的企业是获得超额回报的一种途径。例如,长期持有湖南发展股份有限公司(SZSE:000722)股票的股东在过去半个世纪享受到了39%的股价上涨,远远超过了市场下跌约2.6%(不包括分红派息在内)。
Since the stock has added CN¥460m to its market cap in the past week alone, let's see if underlying performance has been driving long-term returns.
由于该股票在过去一周内市值增加了46000万人民币,让我们看看潜在表现是否驱动着长期回报。
While the efficient markets hypothesis continues to be taught by some, it has been proven that markets are over-reactive dynamic systems, and investors are not always rational. One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.
虽然一些人仍然在教授高效市场假说,但已经证明市场是过度反应的动态系统,投资者不总是理性的。一种有缺陷但合理的评估公司情绪变化的方法是比较每股收益 (EPS) 与股价。
During five years of share price growth, Hunan Development Group actually saw its EPS drop 16% per year.
在股价增长的五年里,湖南发展集团的每股收益实际上每年下降了16%。
This means it's unlikely the market is judging the company based on earnings growth. Because earnings per share don't seem to match up with the share price, we'll take a look at other metrics instead.
这意味着市场不太可能是根据盈利增长来评判公司的。因为每股收益似乎与股价不匹配,我们将转而关注其他指标。
The modest 0.5% dividend yield is unlikely to be propping up the share price. On the other hand, Hunan Development Group's revenue is growing nicely, at a compound rate of 5.6% over the last five years. It's quite possible that management are prioritizing revenue growth over EPS growth at the moment.
较为温和的0.5%股息率不太可能支撑股价。另一方面,湖南发展的营业收入增长不错,在过去五年中以5.6%的复合速率增长。当前管理层很可能优先考虑营业收入增长而不是每股收益增长。
The image below shows how earnings and revenue have tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).
下图显示了收益和营收随时间变化的情况(如果你点击图像,可以看到更多细节):
This free interactive report on Hunan Development Group's balance sheet strength is a great place to start, if you want to investigate the stock further.
如果您希望进一步调查该股票,湖南发展的资产负债表实力可作为很好的起始点。这份免费互动报告是个不错的选择。
What About Dividends?
那么分红怎么样呢?
As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. As it happens, Hunan Development Group's TSR for the last 5 years was 43%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.
除了衡量股价回报外,投资者还应考虑总股东回报率(TSR)。 TSR是一个回报计算公式,考虑了现金股息的价值(假设任何收到的股息均已再投资)和计算出的任何折让集资和分拆的价值。因此,对于支付慷慨股息的公司,TSR往往远高于股价回报。湖南发展在过去5年的TSR为43%,超过了之前提到的股价回报。公司支付的股息因此提升了总股东回报。
A Different Perspective
不同的观点
While it's never nice to take a loss, Hunan Development Group shareholders can take comfort that , including dividends,their trailing twelve month loss of 8.3% wasn't as bad as the market loss of around 14%. Longer term investors wouldn't be so upset, since they would have made 7%, each year, over five years. It could be that the business is just facing some short term problems, but shareholders should keep a close eye on the fundamentals. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. To that end, you should be aware of the 1 warning sign we've spotted with Hunan Development Group .
尽管遭受亏损从来不是件好事,但湖南发展集团的股东可以安慰自己,包括分红在内,他们过去十二个月的亏损仅为8.3%,并未像市场亏损约14%那样严重。长期投资者不会那么沮丧,因为在过去五年里,他们每年的投资回报率为7%。也许企业只是面临一些短期问题,但股东应密切关注基本面。我发现长期关注股价作为业务绩效的一种代理是非常有趣的。但要真正获得洞察力,我们还需要考虑其他信息。为此,你应该注意到我们发现的湖南发展集团存在一项警示信号。
For those who like to find winning investments this free list of undervalued companies with recent insider purchasing, could be just the ticket.
对于那些喜欢寻找获胜投资的人来说,最近有内部购买的低估公司免费列表可能是一个很好的选择。
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Chinese exchanges.
请注意,本文引用的市场回报反映了目前在中国交易所上市的股票的市场加权平均回报。
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