share_log

Australian Banks, Households Resilient to High Rates, RBA Says

Australian Banks, Households Resilient to High Rates, RBA Says

澳大利亚银行和家庭对高利率有很强的抵抗力,澳洲央行表示
彭博社 ·  09/25 23:07

(Bloomberg) -- The share of Australian borrowers in severe financial stress remains small with the vast majority still able to service their debts, the Reserve Bank said in a half-yearly review, while highlighting other areas of threat to the banking system including from China.

(彭博) - 澳大利亚借款人面临严重财务压力的比例仍然很小,绝大多数人仍能够偿还债务,储备银行在半年度审查中表示,同时指出了包括中国在内的银行系统面临的其他威胁。

"The risk of widespread financial stress remains limited due to generally strong financial positions of most borrowers," the RBA said in its Financial Stability Review released in Sydney on Thursday. "Very few mortgage borrowers are in negative equity, limiting the impact on lenders in the event of default and supporting their ability to continue providing credit to the economy."

“由于大多数借款人的财务状况普遍强劲,普遍存在的财务压力风险仍然有限,”储备银行在周四发布的悉尼金融稳定性审查中表示。“非常少量的抵押贷款借款人面临负资产情况,这将限制在违约事件中对贷款人的影响,并支持他们继续向经济提供信贷。”

The RBA cautioned that domestic vulnerabilities could increase if households responded to any easing in financial conditions by taking on excessive debt. It noted that periods of low or falling interest rates historically have coincided with borrowers taking on higher levels of debt and in some cases lenders extending credit to risky borrowers.

储备银行警告称,如果家庭对金融状况有所放松导致过度举债,国内的脆弱性可能会增加。它指出,低利率或下降利率时期历史上与借款人承担更高债务水平以及在某些情况下贷款人向风险借款人提供信贷的情况相一致。

"International experience has highlighted the danger of boom-bust asset price cycles, particularly those amplified by the widespread use of borrowed money," the RBA said. "Residential property stands out in this regard."

“国际经验突显了由大规模借贷放大的繁荣-衰退资产价格周期的危险,”储备银行表示。“在这方面,住宅物业尤为突出。”

Australian households are under pressure as most are on floating-rate mortgages, meaning the 4.25 percentage points of rate increases between May 2022 and November 2023 rapidly passed through to increases in loan repayments. The RBA has kept its cash rate at a 12-year high of 4.35% this year and has signaled it will remain at that level for the time being.

由于大多数澳大利亚家庭使用的是浮动利率抵押贷款,这意味着2022年5月至2023年11月之间的4.25个百分点的利率上涨迅速传导到贷款偿还额的增加。储备银行今年将现金利率维持在12年来的高位4.35%,并暗示它将暂时保持在该水平。

The RBA said Thursday that Australian banks are resilient and even though lenders anticipate an increase in loan arrears, their capital and liquidity buffers are well above regulatory requirements.

储备银行周四表示,澳大利亚银行具有弹性,即使贷款人预计贷款拖欠会增加,他们的资本和流动性缓冲区远远高于监管要求。

Many businesses also continue to manage pressure on their cash flows and balance sheets, supported by sturdy finances prior to the inflation breakout of 2021, the review showed. Most businesses that have entered insolvency are small and have little debt, limiting the broader impact on the labor market and thus household incomes, and on the capital position of lenders.

审查显示,许多企业继续管理现金流和资产负债表的压力,在2021年通胀爆发之前的坚实财务支持下。大多数破产的企业规模较小,负债很少,这限制了对劳动力市场和因此家庭收入,以及贷款人资本状况的更广泛影响。

"Financial pressures are expected to ease," the RBA said, pointing to tax cuts that kicked in on July 1 and slower inflation. "However, the expected easing in labor market conditions and subdued growth in activity are likely to present challenges for some households and businesses."

澳洲联储表示,预计财政压力将有所缓解,主要是由于7月1日实施的减税和通胀放缓。然而,预计劳动力市场状况的改善以及活动增长的乏力可能会给一些家庭和企业带来挑战。

Most mortgagors have experienced an increase in minimum scheduled payments of 30%-60% since May 2022, when the current interest rate tightening campaign began. Even so, less than 1% of all owner-occupier housing loan balances are 90+ days in arrears. Around 0.5% of loans in arrears are estimated to be in negative equity.

自2022年5月开始当前利率收紧行动以来,大多数抵押借款人的最低计划还款额增加了30%-60%。即便如此,在所有自住房贷款余额中,逾期90天以上的占比不到1%。逾期贷款约0.5%估计处于资产负债不平衡状态。

The share of floating-rate owner-occupier borrowers estimated to have had essential expenses and scheduled mortgage repayments exceed their income, leading to an estimated cash flow shortfall, has remained around 5%.

据估计,浮动利率自住房借款人中有大约5%的人因必要支出和计划的按揭偿还超出其收入而导致估计的现金流短缺情况保持在5%左右。

If inflation was to remain high for longer than forecast, the share of borrowers most at risk of being unable to service their debts would increase only slightly, the review found. A larger-than-expected increase in unemployment would lead to greater financial stress though risks to the broader financial system would likely remain contained, it said.

如果通胀维持高位时间超出预期,最危险的贷款人占比的增加仅会轻微增加,审查发现。预料到的失业率增加大于预期会导致更大的财务压力,尽管整个金融体系的风险可能仍然受到控制。

The semi-annual review identified Australia's massive superannuation sector as an area of risk to the financial system, given its rapid growth in recent years and increased exposure to margin calls.

半年度审查确定了澳大利亚庞大的养老金领域作为金融体系的风险领域,考虑到近年来迅速增长以及对追加保证金的增加敞口。

Other areas of risk include:

其他风险领域包括:

  • Operational vulnerabilities from digitization of the financial system

  • Low risk premia in global credit and equity markets leaves them vulnerable to a disorderly adjustment

  • Imbalances in China's financial sector could spill over to the rest of its economy, and to Australia and the world, through trade and global risk aversion channels

  • 金融系统数字化带来的运营漏洞

  • 全球信贷和股票市场的低风险溢价使其容易受到无序调整的影响

  • 中国金融板块的不平衡可能会通过贸易和全球风险规避渠道波及其余经济体,包括澳洲和全球。

2024 Bloomberg L.P.

2024年彭博社万维网(有限合伙企业)。

声明:本内容仅用作提供资讯及教育之目的,不构成对任何特定投资或投资策略的推荐或认可。 更多信息
    抢沙发