Top Glove Recovery Exceeds Analysts' Assumption
Top Glove Recovery Exceeds Analysts' Assumption
Top Glove expects to benefit from the recently announced upward revision of US tariffs.Various indicators are pointing to a strong demand recovery moving into 2025 for Top Glove Corporation Berhad (Top Glove) that exceeds market expectation. As a result of higher sales volume and factory utilisation forecasts, coupled by favourable international trade development, the more-upbeat market expectation has put the 2025 and 2026 net profit growth at 39% and 42% respectively, according to Kenanga.
各种因子都指向2025年顶级手套股份有限公司（顶级手套）对强劲需求复苏的预期超出了市场预期。由于销量更高和工厂利用率预测，加上有利的国际贸易发展，更乐观的市场预期使得2025年和2026年的净利润增长率分别达到39%和42%，根据肯安纳。
Top Glove is optimistic that the strong growth momentum will sustain, as customers continue replenishing their depleting glove stockpiles. The group continues to see month-on-month uptrend in sales volume, notably in September 2024, and expects restocking activity to pick up in subsequent quarters. Its sales volume has strengthened 25%-30% month-on-month, bringing its factory utilisation rate to 65%-70%.
顶级手套对强劲增长势头将持续感到乐观，因为客户继续补充其日渐枯竭的手套库存。集团持续看到销量每月持续上升的趋势，尤其是2024年9月，预计后续季度库存补充活动将加快。其销量每月增长了25%-30%，使工厂利用率提高到65%-70%。
The group highlighted that its exports to the US is continuing to show improvement and currently account for 28%-30% of its geographical sales mix.
该集团强调，其对美国的出口持续改善，目前占其地理销售组合的28%-30%。
Top Glove expects to benefit from the recently announced upward revision of US tariffs.
顶级手套预计将受益于最近宣布的美国关税上调。
The hike in US tariffs has largely eliminated market risks related to predatory pricing by glove manufacturers who sell below cost over an extended period to eliminate competitors.
美国关税的提高在很大程度上消除了与手套制造商进行长时间以低于成本出售以消除竞争对手的掠夺性定价相关的市场风险。
Analysts noted that the present appreciation of Malaysian ringgit (MYR) against the US dollars (USD) is offset by the rising momentum of sales volume. To date, the USD had weakened 10% against the MYR (USD1 = MYR4.12) since the beginning of 2024. Theoretically, an appreciating MYR against the USD will lead to less revenue receipts for glove makers as overseas sales revenues are USD-denominated.
分析师指出，马来西亚林吉特（MYR）对美元（USD）汇率的目前升值被销售量增长的动能所抵消。迄今为止，自2024年初以来，美元对林吉特贬值了10%（1美元=4.12令吉）。从理论上讲，林吉特升值对美元将导致手套制造商的海外销售收入减少。
Key indicators are pointing towards a strong demand recovery moving into the second half of 2024 and 2025, stronger than what analysts previously projected.
关键因子指向2024年下半年和2025年的强劲需求复苏，强于分析师先前的预期。
Analysts expect glove stock prices to re-rate in anticipation of near-term earnings upsurge which clearly is a positive for the sector. The oversupply situation appears to be less acute now and will gradually improve. Based on analysts' estimates, the demand-supply situation will move towards equilibrium starting 2026 when there is no more net new capacity coming onstream. Meanwhile, the global demand
for gloves is expected to rise by 15% per annum supported by rising hygiene awareness.
分析师预计手套股价将因近期盈利激增的预期而重新定价，这显然对该板块是一个积极的迹象。目前供过于求的局面似乎不再那么严重，将逐渐改善。根据分析师的估计，当没有更多净新增产能投入时，需求与供应的状况将于2026年开始走向均衡。与此同时，全球需求
手套市场预计每年将增长15%，受到卫生意识增强的支持。
Analysts has upgraded Top Glove's target price to RM1.02 (previously RM0.97) while reiterating the MARKET PERFORM call.
分析师已将顶级手套的目标价上调至RM1.02（之前为RM0.97），同时重申市场表现看涨。
As of reporting at 3:49pm Thursday, Top Glove's stock traded at RM1.02, at par with the target price. (Stock updates by )
截至周四下午3:49报告，顶级手套的股价为RM1.02，与目标价持平。（股票更新by）