Optimism for West China Cement (HKG:2233) Has Grown This Past Week, Despite One-year Decline in Earnings
Optimism for West China Cement (HKG:2233) Has Grown This Past Week, Despite One-year Decline in Earnings
These days it's easy to simply buy an index fund, and your returns should (roughly) match the market. But investors can boost returns by picking market-beating companies to own shares in. For example, the West China Cement Limited (HKG:2233) share price is up 38% in the last 1 year, clearly besting the market return of around 8.6% (not including dividends). That's a solid performance by our standards! In contrast, the longer term returns are negative, since the share price is 32% lower than it was three years ago.
这些日子买指数基金变得简单,您的回报应该(大致)与市场匹配。但投资者可以通过选择能击败市场的公司持有股份来提高回报。例如,西中国水泥有限公司(HKG:2233)股价在过去1年上涨了38%,明显优于市场回报约8.6%(不包括分红)。按照我们的标准,这是一个表现稳健的公司!相比之下,长期回报为负,因为股价比三年前低了32%。
The past week has proven to be lucrative for West China Cement investors, so let's see if fundamentals drove the company's one-year performance.
过去一周对西中国水泥投资者来说是赚钱的,让我们看看是否基本面推动了该公司的一年表现。
To quote Buffett, 'Ships will sail around the world but the Flat Earth Society will flourish. There will continue to be wide discrepancies between price and value in the marketplace...' One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.
引用巴菲特的话说,“船只会在世界各地航行,但是持平地球学会会蓬勃发展。在市场上,价格和价值之间将继续存在巨大的差距……”评估公司周围情绪变化的一种有缺陷但合理的方法是将每股收益(EPS)与股价进行比较。
Over the last twelve months, West China Cement actually shrank its EPS by 75%.
在过去的十二个月里,西中国水泥实际上将其每股收益缩水了75%。
This means it's unlikely the market is judging the company based on earnings growth. Indeed, when EPS is declining but the share price is up, it often means the market is considering other factors.
这意味着市场可能没有以盈利增长为基础来评价该公司。事实上,当每股收益下降但股价上涨时,通常意味着市场正在考虑其他因素。
West China Cement's revenue actually dropped 4.7% over last year. So the fundamental metrics don't provide an obvious explanation for the share price gain.
西中国水泥的营业收入实际上比去年下降了4.7%。因此,基本指标并没有明显解释股价上涨。
The company's revenue and earnings (over time) are depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).
以下图像显示了公司的营业收入和盈利(随时间变化)(单击以查看准确的数字)。

It's probably worth noting that the CEO is paid less than the median at similar sized companies. It's always worth keeping an eye on CEO pay, but a more important question is whether the company will grow earnings throughout the years. You can see what analysts are predicting for West China Cement in this interactive graph of future profit estimates.
值得注意的是,该CEO的薪酬低于类似规模公司的中位数。关注CEO的薪酬总是值得的,但更重要的问题是公司未来是否会增长盈利。您可以在这个未来利润预测的互动图表中看到分析师对西中国水泥的预测。
What About Dividends?
那么分红怎么样呢?
It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. We note that for West China Cement the TSR over the last 1 year was 41%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!
考虑任何股票的股东总回报以及股价回报是很重要的。股价回报只反映股价的变化,而TSR包括分红的价值(假设它们被再投资)以及任何折扣的资本筹集或剥离带来的好处。对于支付丰厚股息的公司来说,TSR往往比股价回报高得多。我们注意到,西中国水泥过去1年的TSR为41%,要好于上面提到的股价回报。毫无疑问,股息支付在很大程度上解释了这种分歧!
A Different Perspective
不同的观点
We're pleased to report that West China Cement shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 41% over one year. That's including the dividend. That gain is better than the annual TSR over five years, which is 2%. Therefore it seems like sentiment around the company has been positive lately. Someone with an optimistic perspective could view the recent improvement in TSR as indicating that the business itself is getting better with time. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand West China Cement better, we need to consider many other factors. For example, we've discovered 3 warning signs for West China Cement that you should be aware of before investing here.
我们很高兴地报告,中国西部水泥的股东在一年内获得了总股东回报率为41%。这包括分红派息。这一增益优于五年内的年度TSR,为2%。因此,最近公司周围的情绪似乎是积极的。持有乐观视角的人可能会将TSR最近的改善视为表明业务本身随着时间的推移变得更好。长期跟踪股价表现总是很有趣。但要更好地了解中国西部水泥,我们需要考虑许多其他因素。例如,我们发现中国西部水泥存在3个警告信号,您在投资之前应该注意这些。
If you like to buy stocks alongside management, then you might just love this free list of companies. (Hint: many of them are unnoticed AND have attractive valuation).
如果您喜欢与管理层一起购买股票,那么您可能会喜欢这个公司的免费列表。 (提示:其中许多公司不为人注意且具有吸引力的估值。)
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Hong Kong exchanges.
请注意,本文引用的市场回报反映了当前在香港证券交易所交易的股票的市场加权平均回报。
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