Kweichow Moutai's (SHSE:600519) Five-year Earnings Growth Trails the 7.8% YoY Shareholder Returns
Kweichow Moutai's (SHSE:600519) Five-year Earnings Growth Trails the 7.8% YoY Shareholder Returns
Stock pickers are generally looking for stocks that will outperform the broader market. And in our experience, buying the right stocks can give your wealth a significant boost. For example, the Kweichow Moutai Co., Ltd. (SHSE:600519) share price is up 33% in the last 5 years, clearly besting the market return of around 2.8% (ignoring dividends).
股票选择者通常在寻找可超越整体市场表现的股票。而根据我们的经验,买入正确的股票可以显著提升您的财富。例如,贵州茅台股份有限公司(SHSE:600519)股价在过去5年上涨了33%,明显超过了市场回报率约2.8%(不考虑分红)。
The past week has proven to be lucrative for Kweichow Moutai investors, so let's see if fundamentals drove the company's five-year performance.
过去一周对于贵州茅台的投资者来说是赚钱的,让我们看看基本面是否推动了公司的五年业绩。
To quote Buffett, 'Ships will sail around the world but the Flat Earth Society will flourish. There will continue to be wide discrepancies between price and value in the marketplace...' One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).
引用巴菲特的话,“船只会在世界各地航行,但扁平地球协会将空前盛行。市场上的价格和价值将继续存在巨大差异… ”检查市场情绪如何随时间变化的一种方法是查看公司的股价与每股收益(EPS)之间的互动。
Over half a decade, Kweichow Moutai managed to grow its earnings per share at 15% a year. This EPS growth is higher than the 6% average annual increase in the share price. So it seems the market isn't so enthusiastic about the stock these days.
在半个多世纪的时间里,贵州茅台成功以每年15%的速度增长其每股收益。这种每股收益增长高于股价平均每年增长6%。因此,看起来市场对这支股票并不那么热情。
The company's earnings per share (over time) is depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).
该公司的每股收益(随时间的推移)如下图所示(单击可查看确切数字)。
We know that Kweichow Moutai has improved its bottom line lately, but is it going to grow revenue? If you're interested, you could check this free report showing consensus revenue forecasts.
我们知道贵州茅台的盈利状况近来有所改善,但其收入增长会继续增长吗?如果你感兴趣,你可以查看这份免费报告,显示共识收入预测。
What About Dividends?
那么分红怎么样呢?
As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. We note that for Kweichow Moutai the TSR over the last 5 years was 46%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!
除了衡量股价回报,投资者还应考虑总股东回报率(TSR)。TSR是一种回报计算,考虑了现金股利的价值(假设任何收到的股息均已再投资),以及任何折现的增资和分拆的计算价值。可以说TSR为支付股息的股票提供了更完整的图片。我们注意到,贵州茅台过去5年的TSR为46%,优于上述股价回报。毫无疑问,股息支付在很大程度上解释了这种背离!
A Different Perspective
不同的观点
We regret to report that Kweichow Moutai shareholders are down 12% for the year (even including dividends). Unfortunately, that's worse than the broader market decline of 10%. Having said that, it's inevitable that some stocks will be oversold in a falling market. The key is to keep your eyes on the fundamental developments. Longer term investors wouldn't be so upset, since they would have made 8%, each year, over five years. If the fundamental data continues to indicate long term sustainable growth, the current sell-off could be an opportunity worth considering. Importantly, we haven't analysed Kweichow Moutai's dividend history. This free visual report on its dividends is a must-read if you're thinking of buying.
我们遗憾地报道贵州茅台股东今年下跌了12%(甚至包括股息)。不幸的是,这比整体市场下跌10%还要糟糕。话虽如此,在下跌市场中,一些股票被过度抛售是不可避免的。关键是要保持对基本发展的关注。长期投资者不会那么沮丧,因为他们在过去五年中每年获利8%。如果基础数据继续显示出长期可持续增长,当前的抛售可能是值得考虑的机会。重要的是,我们尚未分析贵州茅台的股息历史。如果您在考虑购买,这份关于其股息的可视化报告必读。
If you like to buy stocks alongside management, then you might just love this free list of companies. (Hint: many of them are unnoticed AND have attractive valuation).
如果您喜欢与管理层一起购买股票,那么您可能会喜欢这个公司的免费列表。 (提示:其中许多公司不为人注意且具有吸引力的估值。)
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Chinese exchanges.
请注意,本文引用的市场回报反映了目前在中国交易所上市的股票的市场加权平均回报。
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这篇文章是Simply Wall St的一般性文章。我们根据历史数据和分析师预测提供评论,只使用公正的方法论,我们的文章并不意味着提供任何金融建议。文章不构成买卖任何股票的建议,也不考虑您的目标或您的财务状况。我们的目标是带给您基本数据驱动的长期关注分析。请注意,我们的分析可能不考虑最新的价格敏感公司公告或定性材料。Simply Wall St没有任何股票头寸。