The Past Three-year Earnings Decline for Shenzhen Jinjia GroupLtd (SZSE:002191) Likely Explains Shareholders Long-term Losses
The Past Three-year Earnings Decline for Shenzhen Jinjia GroupLtd (SZSE:002191) Likely Explains Shareholders Long-term Losses
Shenzhen Jinjia Group Co.,Ltd. (SZSE:002191) shareholders should be happy to see the share price up 11% in the last month. But that is small recompense for the exasperating returns over three years. Tragically, the share price declined 65% in that time. So it is really good to see an improvement. Perhaps the company has turned over a new leaf.
深圳劲嘉股份股份有限公司(SZSE:002191)的股东应该很高兴看到上个月股价上涨11%。但对于过去三年中令人懊恼的回报来说,这点不算什么补偿。可悲的是,在那段时间内,股价下跌了65%。因此,看到有所改善确实令人振奋。也许公司已经洗心革面。
Although the past week has been more reassuring for shareholders, they're still in the red over the last three years, so let's see if the underlying business has been responsible for the decline.
尽管过去一周对股东来说更令人放心,但在过去的三年中,他们仍然处于亏损状态,因此让我们看看基本业务是否对下降负责。
While markets are a powerful pricing mechanism, share prices reflect investor sentiment, not just underlying business performance. One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.
虽然市场是一个强大的定价机制,但股价反映了投资者情绪,不仅仅是基本业绩。一种有缺陷但合理的评估公司周围情绪如何变化的方法是将每股收益(EPS)与股价进行比较。
During five years of share price growth, Shenzhen Jinjia GroupLtd moved from a loss to profitability. That would generally be considered a positive, so we are surprised to see the share price is down. So given the share price is down it's worth checking some other metrics too.
在五年的股价增长中,劲嘉股份股份有限公司从亏损转为盈利。这通常被认为是积极的,所以看到股价下跌我们感到惊讶。因此,鉴于股价下跌,值得检查一些其他指标。
We note that the dividend seems healthy enough, so that probably doesn't explain the share price drop. On the other hand, the uninspired reduction in revenue, at 11% each year, may have shareholders ditching the stock. This could have some investors worried about the longer term growth potential (or lack thereof).
我们注意到分红派息看起来足够健康,因此这可能不能解释股价下跌。另一方面,每年营业收入以11%的不尽人意的速度下降,可能导致股东抛售股票。这可能让一些投资者对长期增长潜力(或缺乏潜力)感到担忧。
The graphic below depicts how earnings and revenue have changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).
下面的图表显示了收益和营收随时间的变化情况(通过单击图像揭示确切的值)。
We know that Shenzhen Jinjia GroupLtd has improved its bottom line lately, but what does the future have in store? This free report showing analyst forecasts should help you form a view on Shenzhen Jinjia GroupLtd
我们知道劲嘉股份最近改善了其底线,但未来会有什么呢?该免费报告展示分析师的预测,应该帮助您对劲嘉股份形成看法
What About Dividends?
那么分红怎么样呢?
It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. We note that for Shenzhen Jinjia GroupLtd the TSR over the last 3 years was -58%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!
考虑任何给定股票的总股东回报以及股价回报都很重要。 股价回报仅反映了股价的变化,TSR还包括了股利的价值(假设它们被再投资)以及任何折价的增资或剥离的利益。 可以说,TSR更全面地展现了股票的回报情况。 我们注意到,劲嘉股份过去3年的TSR为-58%,比上述股价回报要好。 毫无疑问,股息支付在很大程度上解释了这种分歧!
A Different Perspective
不同的观点
While the broader market lost about 10% in the twelve months, Shenzhen Jinjia GroupLtd shareholders did even worse, losing 34% (even including dividends). Having said that, it's inevitable that some stocks will be oversold in a falling market. The key is to keep your eyes on the fundamental developments. Regrettably, last year's performance caps off a bad run, with the shareholders facing a total loss of 9% per year over five years. We realise that Baron Rothschild has said investors should "buy when there is blood on the streets", but we caution that investors should first be sure they are buying a high quality business. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Consider for instance, the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 3 warning signs with Shenzhen Jinjia GroupLtd (at least 2 which shouldn't be ignored) , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.
尽管整体市场在过去十二个月里损失了约10%,但劲嘉股份股东的情况更糟,损失了34%(甚至包括分红)。话虽如此,在下跌市场中,一些股票被卖出过度是不可避免的。关键在于保持对基本发展的关注。令人遗憾的是,去年的表现标志着一个糟糕的运行,股东面临着长达五年每年总损失率9%。我们意识到罗斯柴尔德男爵曾说投资者应该"等到街上流血时买入",但我们警告说,投资者应该先确保他们在购买高质量的业务。我发现长期来看股价作为业务表现的一种代理非常有趣。但要真正获得洞察,我们需要考虑其他信息。比如,投资风险这个永恒存在的幽灵。我们已经找出了劲嘉股份的3个警示信号(至少有2个不可忽视的),了解它们应该成为您投资过程的一部分。
If you would prefer to check out another company -- one with potentially superior financials -- then do not miss this free list of companies that have proven they can grow earnings.
如果您愿意查看另一家公司(具有潜在的更好财务状况),请不要错过这个免费的公司列表,证明它们可以增长收益。
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Chinese exchanges.
请注意,本文引用的市场回报反映了目前在中国交易所上市的股票的市场加权平均回报。
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