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Can Pot Stocks Aurora Cannabis and Canopy Growth Bounce Back in Q4?

Can Pot Stocks Aurora Cannabis and Canopy Growth Bounce Back in Q4?

股票极光大麻和canopy growth能在第四季度反弹吗?
The Motley Fool ·  09/27 15:45

Canadian pot stocks such as Aurora Cannabis (TSX:ACB) and Canopy Growth (TSX:WEED) have trailed the broader markets by a wide margin after marijuana was legalized in the country in late 2018. In fact, both marijuana stocks are down 99% below record levels, burning massive investor wealth.

极光大麻(tsx:ACB)和canopy growth(tsx:WEED)等加拿大大麻股自2018年底加拿大大麻合法化之后一直远远落后于整体市场。事实上,这两只大麻股已经跌至纪录水平以下99%,蒸发了大量投资者财富。

Canadian licensed cannabis producers have wrestled with a slew of industry-wide headwinds that include cannibalization from illegal sales, rising competition, and overvalued acquisitions, all of which resulted in an oversupply of pot products, high inventory levels, and widening losses.

加拿大持牌大麻生产商一直在应对一系列行业巨头风险,包括来自非法销售的自相残杀、竞争加剧以及高估收购,所有这些因素导致大麻产品供过于求、高库存水平和日益扩大的亏损。

Let's see if Aurora Cannabis and Canopy Growth can finally stage a turnaround by the end of 2024.

让我们看看极光大麻和canopy growth是否能在2024年底之前实现扭转局面。

Is Aurora Cannabis a good buy today?

极光大麻今天值得买入吗?

Valued at $424 million by market cap, Aurora Cannabis reported revenue of $83.4 million in the fiscal first quarter (Q1) of 2025 (ended June), an increase of 12% year over year. Aurora Cannabis attributed its top-line growth to plant propagation revenue, which rose 16% to $23.1 million. While medical marijuana sales were up 13%, its retail cannabis declined by 10%.

按市值42400万美元估值,极光大麻报告2025财季第一季度(截至6月)营业收入8340万美元,同比增长12%。极光大麻将其销售收入增长归因于植株繁殖收入,增长16%至2310万美元。虽然医疗大麻销售增长了13%,零售大麻下滑了10%。

In the last two years, Aurora Cannabis has moved away from the retail cannabis market and focused on the higher-margin medical marijuana segment. It also acquired a controlling interest in Bevo, a plant propagation business. Bevo is among the largest suppliers of vegetable plants in North America and provides Aurora Cannabis with an opportunity to diversify its revenue and lower its reliance on the competitive retail cannabis business.

在过去两年里,极光大麻已经逐渐退出零售大麻市场,将重心转向更高毛利的医疗大麻领域。它还收购了Bevo的控股权,后者是北美最大的蔬菜植物供应商之一,为极光大麻提供了多样化其收入、降低其对竞争激烈的零售大麻业务的依赖的机会。

In the last 12 months, Aurora Cannabis has reported revenue of $279 million, an increase of 12.3% year over year. Moreover, it ended the June quarter with a gross margin of more than 53%, compared to just 6.6% in fiscal 2023.

在过去12个月里,极光大麻的营收达到了27900万美元,同比增长12.3%。此外,截至6月季度,其毛利率超过了53%,而2023财年仅为6.6%。

Its improving profitability allowed Aurora Cannabis to report a free cash flow for the first time in fiscal Q1. However, investors should note that the free cash flow could fluctuate depending on the timing of receivables collected and the payment of liabilities.

极光大麻不断提高的盈利能力使其在财季第一季度首次报告了自由现金流。然而,投资者应注意,自由现金流可能会因应收款项的收回时间和负债的支付时间而波动。

Aurora Cannabis is focused on expanding into other international markets and growing operations, which should improve revenue and earnings growth in the near term. Analysts tracking ACB stock expect it to gain 22% in the next 12 months.

极光大麻致力于扩大其他国际市场并增加业务,这应该会在近期改善营收和盈利增长。跟踪ACb股票的分析师预计其在未来12个月内将上涨22%。

Is Canopy Growth stock undervalued?

canopy growth股票被低估了吗?

Valued at $678 million by market cap, Canopy Growth closed its retail operations in Canada in early 2023, offloading 28 company-owned stores under brands such as Tokyo Smoke and Tweed. While the retail cannabis segment initially looked promising, the rise in competition has led to lower product prices and massive losses for Canopy Growth and its peers.

按市值计算,canopy growth的估值为67800万美元。2023年初,canopy growth关闭了其在加拿大的零售业务,将旗下的28家公司持有的商店转让,品牌包括Tokyo Smoke和Tweed。尽管最初零售大麻市场看起来很有前景,但竞争加剧导致产品价格下降,给Canopy Growth及其同行带来巨额亏损。

In fiscal Q1 of 2025 (ended in June), Canopy Growth reported sales of $66.2 million, down 13% year over year. However, its gross profit rose by 67% to $23 million due to its cost-savings program, lower inventory write-downs and a transition towards higher-margin medical marijuana products.

2025财年第一季度(截至6月),Canopy Growth报告营业额为6620万美元,同比下降13%。然而,由于成本节约计划、库存减值降低和向更高边际医用大麻产品转变,其毛利润增长了67%达到2300万美元。

Despite increasing its gross margins by 1700 basis points, Canopy Growth remains unprofitable and reported an operating loss of $21.3 million. Additionally, its free cash outflow stood at $55.7 million, compared to an outflow of $150.6 million in the year-ago period.

尽管Canopy Growth将毛利率提高了1700个基点,但仍未盈利,报告经营亏损2130万美元。此外,其自由现金流流出达5570万美元,而去年同期为15060万美元。

The Foolish takeaway

愚蠢的带走

While Aurora Cannabis and Canopy Growth are improving their profit margins, both companies remain high-risk investments at current multiples. The pot stocks should showcase an ability to consistently deliver organic growth, service debt payments, and generate enough cash flow to fuel their expansion plans and gain investor confidence.

尽管极光大麻和canopy growth正在提高利润率,但这两家公司目前仍然是高风险投资。大麻股应该展示稳定提供有机增长的能力,及时还债,以及产生足够现金流来支持其扩张计划,赢得投资者信心。

声明:本内容仅用作提供资讯及教育之目的,不构成对任何特定投资或投资策略的推荐或认可。 更多信息
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