China Galaxy Securities Co., Ltd. (HKG:6881) shareholders have had their patience rewarded with a 76% share price jump in the last month. Looking back a bit further, it's encouraging to see the stock is up 80% in the last year.

Since its price has surged higher, China Galaxy Securities may be sending bearish signals at the moment with its price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 11.6x, since almost half of all companies in Hong Kong have P/E ratios under 9x and even P/E's lower than 5x are not unusual. Nonetheless, we'd need to dig a little deeper to determine if there is a rational basis for the elevated P/E.

China Galaxy Securities hasn't been tracking well recently as its declining earnings compare poorly to other companies, which have seen some growth on average. One possibility is that the P/E is high because investors think this poor earnings performance will turn the corner. If not, then existing shareholders may be extremely nervous about the viability of the share price.

How Is China Galaxy Securities' Growth Trending?

In order to justify its P/E ratio, China Galaxy Securities would need to produce impressive growth in excess of the market.

If we review the last year of earnings, dishearteningly the company's profits fell to the tune of 24%. This means it has also seen a slide in earnings over the longer-term as EPS is down 25% in total over the last three years. Therefore, it's fair to say the earnings growth recently has been undesirable for the company.

Turning to the outlook, the next three years should generate growth of 8.7% per year as estimated by the eight analysts watching the company. Meanwhile, the rest of the market is forecast to expand by 12% per annum, which is noticeably more attractive.

With this information, we find it concerning that China Galaxy Securities is trading at a P/E higher than the market. It seems most investors are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects, but the analyst cohort is not so confident this will happen. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as this level of earnings growth is likely to weigh heavily on the share price eventually.

The Final Word

China Galaxy Securities' P/E is getting right up there since its shares have risen strongly. Using the price-to-earnings ratio alone to determine if you should sell your stock isn't sensible, however it can be a practical guide to the company's future prospects.

We've established that China Galaxy Securities currently trades on a much higher than expected P/E since its forecast growth is lower than the wider market. When we see a weak earnings outlook with slower than market growth, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, sending the high P/E lower. Unless these conditions improve markedly, it's very challenging to accept these prices as being reasonable.

You should always think about risks. Case in point, we've spotted 2 warning signs for China Galaxy Securities you should be aware of, and 1 of them is concerning.

If you're unsure about the strength of China Galaxy Securities' business, why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals for some other companies you may have missed.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.