Is Zhuhai PortLtd (SZSE:000507) A Risky Investment?
Is Zhuhai PortLtd (SZSE:000507) A Risky Investment?
Legendary fund manager Li Lu (who Charlie Munger backed) once said, 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' It's only natural to consider a company's balance sheet when you examine how risky it is, since debt is often involved when a business collapses. Importantly, Zhuhai Port Co.,Ltd. (SZSE:000507) does carry debt. But should shareholders be worried about its use of debt?
传奇基金经理李录(得到查理·芒格支持)曾经说过:'最大的投资风险不在于价格的波动,而是在于你是否会遭受到永久性的资本损失。' 当你评估一个公司的风险程度时,考虑其资产负债表是很自然的,因为往往在企业倒闭时会涉及债务。重要的是,珠海港股份有限公司(SZSE:000507)确实存在负债。但股东们是否应该担心它对债务的使用呢?
Why Does Debt Bring Risk?
为什么债务会带来风险?
Generally speaking, debt only becomes a real problem when a company can't easily pay it off, either by raising capital or with its own cash flow. If things get really bad, the lenders can take control of the business. While that is not too common, we often do see indebted companies permanently diluting shareholders because lenders force them to raise capital at a distressed price. By replacing dilution, though, debt can be an extremely good tool for businesses that need capital to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about a company's use of debt, we first look at cash and debt together.
一般来说,当一家公司无法轻松偿还债务时,债务才会成为真正的问题,无论是通过筹集资本还是依靠自身现金流。如果情况变得非常糟糕,贷款人可以接管企业。虽然这种情况并不常见,但我们经常看到负债累累的公司通过以低价募集资本来稀释股东,从而让股东永久承受损失。然而,债务可以取代稀释,成为需要资本以高回报率投资增长的企业的极好工具。当我们考虑一家公司的债务使用情况时,我们首先看现金和债务的总体情况。
What Is Zhuhai PortLtd's Debt?
珠海港股份有限公司的负债是多少?
You can click the graphic below for the historical numbers, but it shows that Zhuhai PortLtd had CN¥8.50b of debt in June 2024, down from CN¥9.59b, one year before. However, it does have CN¥3.37b in cash offsetting this, leading to net debt of about CN¥5.14b.
您可以点击下面的图表查看历史数字,但它显示珠海港股份有限公司在2024年6月的债务为85亿人民币,低于之前一年的95.9亿人民币。然而,它确实有33.7亿人民币的现金来抵消这笔债务,导致净债务约为51.4亿人民币。
How Strong Is Zhuhai PortLtd's Balance Sheet?
珠海港股份有限公司的资产负债表有多牢固?
According to the last reported balance sheet, Zhuhai PortLtd had liabilities of CN¥4.59b due within 12 months, and liabilities of CN¥6.10b due beyond 12 months. Offsetting this, it had CN¥3.37b in cash and CN¥1.97b in receivables that were due within 12 months. So it has liabilities totalling CN¥5.35b more than its cash and near-term receivables, combined.
根据最新报告的资产负债表显示,珠海港股份有限公司的应在12个月内到期的负债为45.9亿人民币,超过12个月到期的负债为61亿人民币。相对可抵消的是,公司有33.7亿人民币的现金和19.7亿人民币的应在12个月内到期的应收账款。因此,其负债总额高达53.5亿人民币,超过了其现金和短期应收账款的合计。
Given this deficit is actually higher than the company's market capitalization of CN¥4.64b, we think shareholders really should watch Zhuhai PortLtd's debt levels, like a parent watching their child ride a bike for the first time. In the scenario where the company had to clean up its balance sheet quickly, it seems likely shareholders would suffer extensive dilution.
考虑到这一逆差实际上高于公司46.4亿人民币的市值,我们认为股东们确实应该像看着孩子第一次骑自行车一样注意珠海港股份有限公司的债务水平。如果公司不得不迅速清理资产负债表,股东们很可能会遭受巨大的稀释。
In order to size up a company's debt relative to its earnings, we calculate its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) divided by its interest expense (its interest cover). This way, we consider both the absolute quantum of the debt, as well as the interest rates paid on it.
为了比较一个公司的债务与其收益的关系,我们计算其净债务除以利息、税、折旧和摊销前的收益和利息前的收益(其利息覆盖率)。因此,我们考虑了债务的绝对数量以及支付的利率。
Zhuhai PortLtd's net debt is 4.6 times its EBITDA, which is a significant but still reasonable amount of leverage. But its EBIT was about 15.2 times its interest expense, implying the company isn't really paying a high cost to maintain that level of debt. Even were the low cost to prove unsustainable, that is a good sign. Unfortunately, Zhuhai PortLtd saw its EBIT slide 3.9% in the last twelve months. If earnings continue on that decline then managing that debt will be difficult like delivering hot soup on a unicycle. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But it is Zhuhai PortLtd's earnings that will influence how the balance sheet holds up in the future. So when considering debt, it's definitely worth looking at the earnings trend. Click here for an interactive snapshot.
珠海港股份有限公司的净负债是其EBITDA的4.6倍,这是一个相当显著但仍然合理的杠杆率。但其EBIT大约是其利息费用的15.2倍,这意味着公司并没有为维持那个债务水平支付高成本。即使低成本最终不可持续,这也是一个好迹象。不幸的是,珠海港股份有限公司在过去十二个月中看到其EBIT下降了3.9%。如果收益继续下滑,那么管理债务将像骑着独轮车送热汤一样困难。资产负债表显然是分析债务时要关注的重点。但是珠海港股份有限公司的盈利将影响资产负债表未来的表现。因此,在考虑债务时,确实值得关注盈利趋势。点击这里查看交互式快照。
But our final consideration is also important, because a company cannot pay debt with paper profits; it needs cold hard cash. So we always check how much of that EBIT is translated into free cash flow. Happily for any shareholders, Zhuhai PortLtd actually produced more free cash flow than EBIT over the last three years. That sort of strong cash conversion gets us as excited as the crowd when the beat drops at a Daft Punk concert.
但我们最终考虑的也很重要,因为公司不能用纸面利润偿还债务;它需要现金。因此,我们始终检查将多少EBIt转化为自由现金流。令股东高兴的是,珠海港有限公司实际上在过去三年产生的自由现金流比EBIt多。这种强劲的现金转化让我们像在Daft Punk音乐会上欢呼一样兴奋。
Our View
我们的观点
While Zhuhai PortLtd's level of total liabilities has us nervous. For example, its interest cover and conversion of EBIT to free cash flow give us some confidence in its ability to manage its debt. We should also note that Infrastructure industry companies like Zhuhai PortLtd commonly do use debt without problems. Looking at all the angles mentioned above, it does seem to us that Zhuhai PortLtd is a somewhat risky investment as a result of its debt. Not all risk is bad, as it can boost share price returns if it pays off, but this debt risk is worth keeping in mind. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. For example - Zhuhai PortLtd has 1 warning sign we think you should be aware of.
尽管珠海港有限公司的总负债水平让我们感到紧张。例如,其利息保障和将EBIt转化为自由现金流的能力让我们对其管理债务的能力有了一些信心。我们还应注意,像珠海港这样的制造行业公司通常会在没有问题的情况下使用债务。综合考虑以上所有因素,我们认为珠海港有限公司由于债务问题而成为一项有些风险的投资。不是所有的风险都是坏的,如果它得到偿还,它可能会提高股价回报,但这种债务风险值得记在心里。在分析债务水平时,资产负债表是明显的起点。然而,并不是所有的投资风险都存在于资产负债表中 - 远非如此。例如 - 珠海港有限公司有1个警示标志,我们认为您应该注意。
If, after all that, you're more interested in a fast growing company with a rock-solid balance sheet, then check out our list of net cash growth stocks without delay.
如果在所有这些之后,您更感兴趣的是具有坚实资产负债表的快速增长公司,那么不要拖延,查看我们的净现金增长股票列表。
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