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Strong Week for Sun Hung Kai (HKG:86) Shareholders Doesn't Alleviate Pain of Three-year Loss

Strong Week for Sun Hung Kai (HKG:86) Shareholders Doesn't Alleviate Pain of Three-year Loss

恒基兆业(HKG:86)股东的强劲表现并未缓解三年来的亏损之痛
Simply Wall St ·  09/30 20:57

Sun Hung Kai & Co. Limited (HKG:86) shareholders should be happy to see the share price up 12% in the last quarter. But that doesn't change the fact that the returns over the last three years have been less than pleasing. Truth be told the share price declined 33% in three years and that return, Dear Reader, falls short of what you could have got from passive investing with an index fund.

恒基兆业有限公司(HKG:86)的股东应该很高兴看到上季度股价上涨了12%。但事实是,在过去三年里的回报并不尽人意。说实话,股价在三年内下跌了33%,亲爱的读者,这个回报比你从指数基金 passively investing 得到的要少。

While the last three years has been tough for Sun Hung Kai shareholders, this past week has shown signs of promise. So let's look at the longer term fundamentals and see if they've been the driver of the negative returns.

虽然过去三年对恒基兆业的股东来说是艰难的,但上周显示了一些希望的迹象。因此,让我们看看长期的基本面,以确定它们是否是导致负回报的原因。

To quote Buffett, 'Ships will sail around the world but the Flat Earth Society will flourish. There will continue to be wide discrepancies between price and value in the marketplace...' One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.

引用巴菲特的话说,“船只会在世界各地航行,但是持平地球学会会蓬勃发展。在市场上,价格和价值之间将继续存在巨大的差距……”评估公司周围情绪变化的一种有缺陷但合理的方法是将每股收益(EPS)与股价进行比较。

We know that Sun Hung Kai has been profitable in the past. However, it made a loss in the last twelve months, suggesting profit may be an unreliable metric at this stage. Other metrics may better explain the share price move.

我们知道恒基兆业过去是盈利的。然而,在过去十二个月中却出现了亏损,这表明盈利在这个阶段可能是一个不可靠的指标。其他指标可能更好地解释股价的变动。

Given the healthiness of the dividend payments, we doubt that they've concerned the market. On the other hand, the uninspired reduction in revenue, at 12% each year, may have shareholders ditching the stock. In that case, the current EPS might be viewed by some as difficult to sustain.

鉴于分红派息的健康程度,我们怀疑它们是否令市场担忧。另一方面,营业收入的持续减少每年达到12%,可能导致股东抛售这只股票。在这种情况下,目前的每股收益对一些人来说可能难以维持。

You can see how earnings and revenue have changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).

你可以在下面的图片中看到收入和营业收入随时间的变化情况(单击图表可查看精确值)。

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SEHK:86 Earnings and Revenue Growth October 1st 2024
SEHK:86,2024年10月1日盈利和营业收入增长

We consider it positive that insiders have made significant purchases in the last year. Even so, future earnings will be far more important to whether current shareholders make money. This free report showing analyst forecasts should help you form a view on Sun Hung Kai

我们认为内部人士在过去一年里进行了重要的购买是积极的。即使如此,未来的收益对于当前股东是否赚钱将更为重要。此免费报告显示分析师预测应该会帮助您形成对新鸿基的看法

What About Dividends?

那么分红怎么样呢?

It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. In the case of Sun Hung Kai, it has a TSR of -12% for the last 3 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!

考虑到任何给定股票的股东总回报以及股价回报是非常重要的。而股价回报只反映了股价的变化,TSR还包括了股息的价值(假设它们被再投资)以及任何折扣资本筹集或分拆的好处。可以说,TSR给出了对股票产生的回报更全面的图景。就新鸿基而言,过去3年其TSR为-12%。这超过了我们先前提到的股价回报。毫无疑问,股息支付在很大程度上解释了这种分歧!

A Different Perspective

不同的观点

Sun Hung Kai shareholders are up 12% for the year (even including dividends). But that return falls short of the market. The silver lining is that the gain was actually better than the average annual return of 4% per year over five year. This suggests the company might be improving over time. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Consider for instance, the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 1 warning sign with Sun Hung Kai , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.

新鸿基股东今年的收益率增长了12%(甚至包括分红)。 但这种回报并未达到市场预期。 硬件提升在于实际增长比过去五年的平均年回报率4%要好。 这表明公司可能在不断改进。 我发现长期内观察股价作为业务表现的替代方式非常有趣。 但要获得真正的见解,我们也需要考虑其他信息。 比如,始终存在的投资风险的阴影。 我们已经发现了一条对新鸿基的警告信号,并理解它们应该成为您投资过程的一部分。

There are plenty of other companies that have insiders buying up shares. You probably do not want to miss this free list of undervalued small cap companies that insiders are buying.

还有很多其他的公司,公司的内部人士正在购买股票。你可能不想错过这个免费的小市值公司的低估列表。

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Hong Kong exchanges.

请注意,本文引用的市场回报反映了当前在香港证券交易所交易的股票的市场加权平均回报。

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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这篇文章是Simply Wall St的一般性文章。我们根据历史数据和分析师预测提供评论,只使用公正的方法论,我们的文章并不意味着提供任何金融建议。文章不构成买卖任何股票的建议,也不考虑您的目标或您的财务状况。我们的目标是带给您基本数据驱动的长期关注分析。请注意,我们的分析可能不考虑最新的价格敏感公司公告或定性材料。Simply Wall St没有任何股票头寸。

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