Shanghai Laiyifen Co.,Ltd (SHSE:603777) shareholders would be excited to see that the share price has had a great month, posting a 26% gain and recovering from prior weakness. Unfortunately, the gains of the last month did little to right the losses of the last year with the stock still down 21% over that time.
Although its price has surged higher, you could still be forgiven for feeling indifferent about Shanghai LaiyifenLtd's P/S ratio of 1x, since the median price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio for the Consumer Retailing industry in China is also close to 0.8x. While this might not raise any eyebrows, if the P/S ratio is not justified investors could be missing out on a potential opportunity or ignoring looming disappointment.
How Shanghai LaiyifenLtd Has Been Performing
As an illustration, revenue has deteriorated at Shanghai LaiyifenLtd over the last year, which is not ideal at all. Perhaps investors believe the recent revenue performance is enough to keep in line with the industry, which is keeping the P/S from dropping off. If not, then existing shareholders may be a little nervous about the viability of the share price.
We don't have analyst forecasts, but you can see how recent trends are setting up the company for the future by checking out our free report on Shanghai LaiyifenLtd's earnings, revenue and cash flow.
Do Revenue Forecasts Match The P/S Ratio?
In order to justify its P/S ratio, Shanghai LaiyifenLtd would need to produce growth that's similar to the industry.
In reviewing the last year of financials, we were disheartened to see the company's revenues fell to the tune of 12%. The last three years don't look nice either as the company has shrunk revenue by 8.3% in aggregate. Accordingly, shareholders would have felt downbeat about the medium-term rates of revenue growth.
Comparing that to the industry, which is predicted to deliver 13% growth in the next 12 months, the company's downward momentum based on recent medium-term revenue results is a sobering picture.
With this in mind, we find it worrying that Shanghai LaiyifenLtd's P/S exceeds that of its industry peers. It seems most investors are ignoring the recent poor growth rate and are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects. There's a good chance existing shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/S falls to levels more in line with the recent negative growth rates.
What We Can Learn From Shanghai LaiyifenLtd's P/S?
Shanghai LaiyifenLtd appears to be back in favour with a solid price jump bringing its P/S back in line with other companies in the industry Using the price-to-sales ratio alone to determine if you should sell your stock isn't sensible, however it can be a practical guide to the company's future prospects.
The fact that Shanghai LaiyifenLtd currently trades at a P/S on par with the rest of the industry is surprising to us since its recent revenues have been in decline over the medium-term, all while the industry is set to grow. Even though it matches the industry, we're uncomfortable with the current P/S ratio, as this dismal revenue performance is unlikely to support a more positive sentiment for long. Unless the recent medium-term conditions improve markedly, investors will have a hard time accepting the share price as fair value.
It's always necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 2 warning signs with Shanghai LaiyifenLtd, and understanding these should be part of your investment process.
If strong companies turning a profit tickle your fancy, then you'll want to check out this free list of interesting companies that trade on a low P/E (but have proven they can grow earnings).
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