Analyst Questions 'What Could Hess Be Worth?' As Chevron Advances In Acquisition Efforts
Analyst Questions 'What Could Hess Be Worth?' As Chevron Advances In Acquisition Efforts
Hess Corporation (NYSE:HES) and Chevron Corporation (NYSE:CVX) shares are trading higher on Tuesday.
美国雪佛龙公司（NYSE:CVX）和赫斯公司（NYSE:HES）股价周二上涨。
On Monday, the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) completed an antitrust review of the merger of both companies, satisfying a critical closing condition for the transaction.
周一，联邦贸易委员会（FTC）完成了对两家公司合并的反垄断审查，满足了交易的一个关键控件。
To facilitate the merger's completion, Hess and Chevron have agreed that Hess CEO John Hess will not be on the Chevron board.
为促进合并完成，赫斯和雪佛龙已达成协议，赫斯首席执行官约翰·赫斯不会加入雪佛龙董事会。
Exxon Mobil Corp (NYSE:XOM) and its partner CNOOC Ltd had earlier asserted their right of first refusal to any sale of Hess' stake in a Guyana oil-producing joint venture. The arbitration panel is expected to hear these claims in May 2025.
埃克森美孚公司（NYSE:XOM）及其合作伙伴中海油有限公司早些时候强调了他们对赫斯在圭亚那石油联合项目的股权出售享有优先购买权。预计仲裁小组将于2025年5月听取这些主张。
Piper Sandler analyst Ryan M. Todd raised the valuation of Guyana (net to HES) from $40.6 billion to $45.6 billion, translating to $132 to $149 per share, due to notable increases in discovered resources and productivity in Guyana.
派杰投资分析师Ryan m. Todd将圭亚那的估值（净至HES）从406亿美元提高到456亿美元，每股从132美元到149美元，这是由于圭亚那已发现资源和生产率显著增加。
The analyst estimates Hess' stand-alone value at around $170 per share with Brent priced at $75 per barrel, suggesting that Hess is a compelling value opportunity for the first time in years.
分析师估计，在基准价格为75美元/桶的情况下，赫斯作为独立公司的价值约为每股170美元，这表明多年来赫斯首次成为了具有吸引力的投资机会。
Notably, given strong reservoir productivity and successful debottlenecking (12%-20% improvement), Todd expects each FPSO's peak productive capacity to increase from approximately 2.0 Mboe/d to around 2.5 Mboe/d.
值得注意的是，由于储层生产力强大并且脱阻成功（提高了12%至20%），托德预计每个FPSO的峰值产能将从约2.0 Mboe/d增加到2.5 Mboe/d左右。
The analyst adds that while second-quarter production was 192 kbd (net to HES) in Guyana, they expect net production to peak at around 775 kbd, reflecting a 17% annual CAGR for nearly a decade, with peak CFO and FCF projected at $10.3 billion and $8.7 billion, respectively, vs. a $2.2 billion breakeven in 2023.
该分析师补充说，虽然圭亚那第二季度的产量为192千桶/日（净至HES），他们预计净产量将在775千桶/日左右达到峰值，反映了近十年期间大约17%的年均复合增长率，预计峰值CFO和FCF分别为103亿美元和87亿美元，相比之下，2023年的盈亏平衡点为22亿美元。
On the other hand, Wolfe Research analyst Doug Leggate upgraded Hess from Peer Perform to Outperform with a price target of $150.
另一方面，Wolfe研究分析师道格·莱格特将Hess的评级从同行表现升级为表现优异，并将目标价格定为150美元。
The bullish outlook reflects the analyst's view that current market conditions and the potential merger outcomes give Hess shares an attractive risk/reward profile, indicating that the valuation remains compelling regardless of whether the deal with Chevron proceeds.
这种看好态势反映了分析师的观点，即当前市场情况和潜在的并购结果使Hess股票具有有吸引力的风险/回报概况，表明该估值仍然具有吸引力，无论是否与Chevron达成交易。
Leggate cited three scenarios for Hess that support a positive outlook. The first scenario envisions the successful merger with Chevron, closing the current 11% arbitrage gap between the valuations of Hess and Chevron.
莱格特列举了三种支持Hess积极前景的情景。第一种情景设想了与Chevron的成功合并，消除目前Hess和Chevron估值之间的11%套利差。
If the merger fails, the analyst expects Hess to trade based on its fundamentals, with a fair value starting point projected at about $150 per share.
如果合并失败，分析师预计Hess将基于其基本面进行交易，公平价值的起始点预计约为每股150美元。
The third scenario examines a failed merger, indicating that Hess has shown a willingness to be acquired, with Chevron likely remaining the sole interested party, says the analyst.
第三种情况检查了合并失败的情况，表明Hess已表现出愿意被收购的态度，且Chevron可能仍是唯一感兴趣的买方，分析师表示。
Price Action: HES shares are up 1.9% at $138.38, while CVX shares rose 1.28% at $149.17 at the last check Tuesday.
价格行动：HES股价上涨1.9%，报138.38美元，而CVX股价上涨1.28%，报149.17美元，截至本周二最后一次检查。
Image via Shutterstock
图片来自shutterstock。
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