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Is Jiangsu Huachang Chemical (SZSE:002274) A Risky Investment?

Is Jiangsu Huachang Chemical (SZSE:002274) A Risky Investment?

江苏华昌化工(SZSE:002274)是一项风险投资吗?
Simply Wall St ·  2024/10/02 09:09

Legendary fund manager Li Lu (who Charlie Munger backed) once said, 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' So it seems the smart money knows that debt - which is usually involved in bankruptcies - is a very important factor, when you assess how risky a company is. As with many other companies Jiangsu Huachang Chemical Co., Ltd (SZSE:002274) makes use of debt. But the more important question is: how much risk is that debt creating?

传奇基金经理李录(查理芒格支持)曾经说过:'最大的投资风险不是价格的波动,而是你是否会遭受资本永久损失。' 因此,聪明人似乎知道,债务(通常涉及破产)是评估公司风险时的一个非常重要因素。与许多其他公司一样,华昌化工股份有限公司(SZSE:002274)利用了债务。但更重要的问题是:这笔债务带来了多少风险?

Why Does Debt Bring Risk?

为什么债务会带来风险?

Debt is a tool to help businesses grow, but if a business is incapable of paying off its lenders, then it exists at their mercy. Part and parcel of capitalism is the process of 'creative destruction' where failed businesses are mercilessly liquidated by their bankers. However, a more usual (but still expensive) situation is where a company must dilute shareholders at a cheap share price simply to get debt under control. Having said that, the most common situation is where a company manages its debt reasonably well - and to its own advantage. The first step when considering a company's debt levels is to consider its cash and debt together.

债务是帮助企业增长的工具,但如果一家企业无法偿还债权人,那么它就处在了他们的掌控之下。资本主义的一个重要方面是“创造性破坏”过程中,倒闭的企业被银行家无情地清算。然而,更常见的(但仍然成本很高的)情况是,一家公司必须以低廉的股价稀释股东,仅仅为了控制债务。话虽如此,最常见的情况是一家公司管理自己的债务相当好,并且利用它们实现自己的优势。考虑一家公司的债务水平时的第一步是将其现金和债务放在一起进行考虑。

What Is Jiangsu Huachang Chemical's Net Debt?

江苏华昌化工的净债务是多少?

As you can see below, Jiangsu Huachang Chemical had CN¥130.2m of debt at June 2024, down from CN¥640.2m a year prior. But on the other hand it also has CN¥589.7m in cash, leading to a CN¥459.5m net cash position.

正如您在下文所见,2024年6月,江苏华昌化工的债务为13020万人民币,低于一年前的64020万人民币。但另一方面,它还有58970万人民币的现金,导致净现金头寸达45950万人民币。

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SZSE:002274 Debt to Equity History October 2nd 2024
SZSE:002274资产负债历史数据,2024年10月2日

How Strong Is Jiangsu Huachang Chemical's Balance Sheet?

华昌化工的资产负债表有多坚实?

Zooming in on the latest balance sheet data, we can see that Jiangsu Huachang Chemical had liabilities of CN¥2.18b due within 12 months and liabilities of CN¥6.14m due beyond that. Offsetting this, it had CN¥589.7m in cash and CN¥1.66b in receivables that were due within 12 months. So it actually has CN¥57.3m more liquid assets than total liabilities.

深入研究最新的资产负债表数据,我们可以看到华昌化工在12个月内到期的负债为21.8亿人民币,超过12个月到期的负债为614万人民币。与此相抵,它在手头有58970万人民币的现金和16.6亿人民币的应收账款,在12个月内到期。因此,它实际上比总负债多拥有5730万人民币的流动资产。

Having regard to Jiangsu Huachang Chemical's size, it seems that its liquid assets are well balanced with its total liabilities. So while it's hard to imagine that the CN¥7.80b company is struggling for cash, we still think it's worth monitoring its balance sheet. Succinctly put, Jiangsu Huachang Chemical boasts net cash, so it's fair to say it does not have a heavy debt load!

考虑到华昌化工的规模,似乎其流动资产与总负债之间的平衡良好。因此,虽然很难想象这家78亿人民币的公司会因为现金短缺而陷入困境,但我们仍认为值得关注其资产负债表。简言之,华昌化工拥有净现金,因此可以说它没有沉重的债务负担!

In addition to that, we're happy to report that Jiangsu Huachang Chemical has boosted its EBIT by 67%, thus reducing the spectre of future debt repayments. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But you can't view debt in total isolation; since Jiangsu Huachang Chemical will need earnings to service that debt. So if you're keen to discover more about its earnings, it might be worth checking out this graph of its long term earnings trend.

除此之外,我们很高兴地报告,华昌化工将其EBIT提高了67%,从而降低了未来债务偿还的不确定性。资产负债表显然是分析债务时应重点关注的领域。但你不能将债务完全孤立地看待;因为华昌化工需要盈利来偿还债务。所以,如果你渴望了解更多关于其盈利情况的信息,不妨查看一下其长期盈利趋势图表。

Finally, a company can only pay off debt with cold hard cash, not accounting profits. Jiangsu Huachang Chemical may have net cash on the balance sheet, but it is still interesting to look at how well the business converts its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) to free cash flow, because that will influence both its need for, and its capacity to manage debt. Over the most recent three years, Jiangsu Huachang Chemical recorded free cash flow worth 68% of its EBIT, which is around normal, given free cash flow excludes interest and tax. This free cash flow puts the company in a good position to pay down debt, when appropriate.

最后,一家公司只能用冷硬现金偿还债务,而不是会计利润。 华昌化工的资产负债表上可能有净现金,但看看企业如何将其息税前利润(EBIT)转化为自由现金流的能力是很有趣的,因为这将影响其管理债务的需求和能力。 在最近的三年中,华昌化工记录的自由现金流价值相当于其EBIT的68%,这在正常范围之内,因为自由现金流不包括利息和税收。这种自由现金流使公司在适当时能够偿还债务处于有利地位。

Summing Up

总之

While it is always sensible to investigate a company's debt, in this case Jiangsu Huachang Chemical has CN¥459.5m in net cash and a decent-looking balance sheet. And it impressed us with its EBIT growth of 67% over the last year. So we don't think Jiangsu Huachang Chemical's use of debt is risky. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. For example - Jiangsu Huachang Chemical has 1 warning sign we think you should be aware of.

虽然调查公司的债务总是明智的,在这种情况下,华昌化工的净现金为45950万人民币,资产负债表看起来还不错。而且,过去一年其EBIt增长了67%让我们印象深刻。因此,我们认为华昌化工的债务使用并不冒险。毫无疑问,我们大部分关于债务的了解来自资产负债表。但最终,每家公司都可能存在超出资产负债表之外的风险。例如,我们认为你应该注意到 华昌化工 有 1个警告标志。

At the end of the day, it's often better to focus on companies that are free from net debt. You can access our special list of such companies (all with a track record of profit growth). It's free.

归根结底,专注于没有净债务的公司往往更好。您可以访问我们的特别列表,其中包括所有表现出盈利增长轨迹的公司。这是免费的。

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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