The CITIC Limited (HKG:267) share price has done very well over the last month, posting an excellent gain of 29%. The last 30 days bring the annual gain to a very sharp 44%.
In spite of the firm bounce in price, CITIC may still be sending very bullish signals at the moment with its price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 4.4x, since almost half of all companies in Hong Kong have P/E ratios greater than 10x and even P/E's higher than 20x are not unusual. Nonetheless, we'd need to dig a little deeper to determine if there is a rational basis for the highly reduced P/E.
Recent times have been advantageous for CITIC as its earnings have been rising faster than most other companies. It might be that many expect the strong earnings performance to degrade substantially, which has repressed the P/E. If you like the company, you'd be hoping this isn't the case so that you could potentially pick up some stock while it's out of favour.
Want the full picture on analyst estimates for the company? Then our free report on CITIC will help you uncover what's on the horizon.
Is There Any Growth For CITIC?
The only time you'd be truly comfortable seeing a P/E as depressed as CITIC's is when the company's growth is on track to lag the market decidedly.
Retrospectively, the last year delivered a decent 4.1% gain to the company's bottom line. However, this wasn't enough as the latest three year period has seen an unpleasant 6.1% overall drop in EPS. Therefore, it's fair to say the earnings growth recently has been undesirable for the company.
Turning to the outlook, the next three years should generate growth of 5.1% per annum as estimated by the four analysts watching the company. Meanwhile, the rest of the market is forecast to expand by 12% per annum, which is noticeably more attractive.
In light of this, it's understandable that CITIC's P/E sits below the majority of other companies. Apparently many shareholders weren't comfortable holding on while the company is potentially eyeing a less prosperous future.
What We Can Learn From CITIC's P/E?
Shares in CITIC are going to need a lot more upward momentum to get the company's P/E out of its slump. While the price-to-earnings ratio shouldn't be the defining factor in whether you buy a stock or not, it's quite a capable barometer of earnings expectations.
We've established that CITIC maintains its low P/E on the weakness of its forecast growth being lower than the wider market, as expected. At this stage investors feel the potential for an improvement in earnings isn't great enough to justify a higher P/E ratio. It's hard to see the share price rising strongly in the near future under these circumstances.
You need to take note of risks, for example - CITIC has 2 warning signs (and 1 which doesn't sit too well with us) we think you should know about.
If you're unsure about the strength of CITIC's business, why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals for some other companies you may have missed.
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