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Bitcoin, Gold Are The 'Debasement Trade' In Uncertain Times: JPMorgan

Bitcoin, Gold Are The 'Debasement Trade' In Uncertain Times: JPMorgan

比特币、黄金是在不确定时期的'贬值交易': 摩根大通
Benzinga ·  10/03 13:02

JPMorgan Chase and Co (NYSE:JPM) analysts are observing a trend where investors are increasingly turning to gold and Bitcoin as "safe-haven" assets amid rising geopolitical tensions and the upcoming U.S. presidential election.

根据JPMorgan Chase和Co(纽交所:JPM)的分析师观察,投资者越来越倾向于将资金投向黄金和比特币作为“避险”资产,以应对不断上升的地缘政治紧张局势和即将到来的美国总统大选。

What Happened: This shift, referred to as the "debasement trade," is driven by concerns over economic instability and currency devaluation, The Block reported.

事件经过:这种转变被称为“贬值交易”,受经济不稳定和货币贬值担忧的推动,据The Block报道。

"Rising geopolitical tensions and the coming U.S. election are likely to reinforce what some investors call the 'debasement trade' thus favoring both gold and Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC)," J.P. Morgan's team, including analysts Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, Mika Inkinen, Mayur Yeole and Krutik P Mehta, noted in their recent report.

J.P.摩根的团队,包括分析师Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou、Mika Inkinen、Mayur Yeole和Krutik P Mehta在最近的报告中指出:“不断上升的地缘政治紧张局势和即将到来的美国大选可能会加强一些投资者所谓的'贬值交易',从而有利于黄金和比特币(加密货币:BTC)。”

Gold's price initially showed a muted response to recent geopolitical events but surged to almost $2,700 on Sep. 26.

黄金的价格最初对最近的地缘事件表现出了冷淡的反应,但在9月26日飙升至近2700美元。

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This rise is partly due to a decline in the dollar by about 4-5% and a significant drop in real U.S. Treasury yields by 50-80 basis points.

这种上涨部分是由于美元下跌约4-5%,以及实际美国国债收益率下降50-80个基点。

Yet, the analysts argue that these factors alone do not fully explain the sharp increase in gold's value, indicating the return of the "debasement trade."

然而,分析师认为这些因素本身并不能完全解释黄金价值的大幅增长,这表明了“贬值交易”的回归。

The "debasement trade" is influenced by a mix of factors, including the escalation of geopolitical uncertainties since 2022, ongoing inflation concerns, large government deficits in major economies, and a weakening confidence in fiat currencies, particularly in certain emerging markets.

“贬值交易”受到多种因素影响,包括自2022年以来地缘政治不确定性的升级、不断加剧的通胀担忧、主要经济体的巨额政府赤字以及对法定货币的信心下降,特别是在某些新兴市场。

Why It Matters: The current geopolitical climate, including conflicts like the Iran-Israel situation, has heightened market volatility. According to Santiment, the Fear and Greed Index has shifted into the fear zone, reflecting the market's uncertainty.

为什么重要:包括伊朗-以色列情况等冲突在内的当前地缘政治氛围加剧了市场波动性。据Santiment称,恐惧与贪婪指数已转为恐惧区间,反映了市场的不确定性。

Additionally, Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole Investments, suggested that Bitcoin's strong correlation with U.S. liquidity measures and gold's recent breakout to new highs indicate a bullish outlook for Bitcoin. He noted that Bitcoin tends to lag gold by a few months, suggesting it could follow gold's upward trajectory.

此外,Capriole Investments创始人查尔斯·爱德华兹建议,比特币与美国流动性措施以及黄金最近突破新高之间存在强相关性,表明对比特币持看好态度。他指出,比特币往往滞后于黄金数月,暗示可能会跟随黄金的上升轨迹。

What's Next: To gain further insights into these developments, the upcoming Benzinga Future of Digital Assets event on Nov. 19 will provide an ideal platform for investors and enthusiasts alike to deepen their understanding of such trends.

接下来:为了进一步了解这些发展,即将于11月19日举行的Benzinga数字资产未来活动将为投资者和爱好者提供一个理想的平台,以加深对这些趋势的理解。

  • Bitcoin Drops Below $62,000 As Analysts Warn Of Potential Further Decline
  • 比特币下跌至 62,000 美元以下,分析师警告可能进一步下跌

Image: Shutterstock

图片:shutterstock

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